Alex Kruger

I'm expecting a trend change in crypto today if payrolls data (NFP) comes in soft. If not today, then the trend change will have to wait for the market to price in higher odds of no hike at the July FOMC (Jul/29). The next catalysts for that repricing are the FOMC minutes (Jul/8) and CPI (Jul/14). If CPI comes in hot, the repricing waits until the July FOMC itself. NFP, CPI, the minutes, and FOMC speeches are more important than ever given Warsh's no forward guidance policy. I expect no hike on Jul/29, given the Middle East cease fire and inflation having peaked, but the market is not so sure and needs data to hold its hand until then. A hike would be extremely bearish. Without forward guidance, the market would have a hard time distinguishing between an "insurance hike" and the start of a hiking cycle. The main drag on crypto in the last six weeks has been BTC and Saylor, whose unfortunate actions (using cash reserves to repurchase 2029 converts + making a test bitcoin sale) drove price from 82K to 58K. That risk is now mostly gone, at least for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, the main drags on equities and risk assets in general in the last two weeks have been a) the US-Iran cease fire exhausting most of the de-escalation upside, b) a hawkish June FOMC, and c) reignited AI bubble fears (misplaced IMO).

nobody: crypto twitter: the AI private credit crash will send BTC to $1 million

Consensus seems to believe that if Saylor did not sell a lot of BTC last week (e.g. $2B), then bitcoin is doomed. I don't see it what way. Saylor has one job, and one tool. To accumulate BTC, by tapping capital markets. If he were to sell (or have sold) $2B of BTC after buying $2B at $80,985 in the week of May 12–18, for a 20% loss, that would represent a major blunder. One thing is to sell a little to harvest tax losses. An entirely different thing is to blow up $400 million in 2.5 weeks by buying & selling BTC like a degenerate gambler. Best case scenario: BTC just goes up a lot, all problems solved. Bad case scenario: BTC fails to rally, Strategy lowers the dividend on STRC to make it sustainable. Worst case scenario: Strategy dumped/dumps BTC, shows the world the largest BTC holder, with 4% of the total supply, compounds mistakes, is unreliable, and can't be trusted in doing what it is supposed to be doing: accumulating BTC. Nightmare scenario: Strategy dumped, but not enough.

Consensus seems to believe that if Saylor did not sell a lot of BTC last week (e.g. $2B), then bitcoin is doomed. I don't see it what way. Saylor has one job, and one tool. To accumulate BTC, by tapping capital markets. If he were to sell (or have sold) $2B of BTC after buying $2B at $80,985 in the week of May 12–18, for a 20% loss, that would represent a major blunder. One thing is to sell a little to harvest tax losses. An entirely different thing is to blow up $400 million in 2.5 weeks by buying & selling BTC like a degenerate gambler. Best case scenario: BTC just goes up a lot, all problems solved. Bad case scenario: BTC fails to rally, Strategy lowers the dividend on STRC to make it sustainable. Worst case scenario: Strategy dumped/dumps BTC, shows the world the largest BTC holder, with 4% of the total supply, compounds mistakes, is unreliable, and can't be trusted in doing what it is supposed to be doing: accumulating BTC. Nightmare scenario: Strategy dumped, but not enough.

Consensus seems to believe that if Saylor did not sell a lot of BTC last week (e.g. $2B), then bitcoin is doomed. I don't see it what way. Saylor has one job, and one tool. To accumulate BTC, by tapping capital markets. If he were to sell (or have sold) $2B of BTC after buying $2B at $80,985 in the week of May 12–18, for a 20% loss, that would represent a major blunder. One thing is to sell a little to harvest tax losses. An entirely different thing is to blow up $400 million in 2.5 weeks by buying & selling BTC like a degenerate gambler. Best case scenario: BTC just goes up a lot, all problems solved. Bad case scenario: BTC fails to rally, Strategy lowers the dividend on STRC to make it sustainable. Worst case scenario: Strategy dumped/dumps BTC, shows the world the largest BTC holder, with 4% of the total supply, compounds mistakes, is unreliable, and can't be trusted in doing what it is supposed to be doing: accumulating BTC. Nightmare scenario: Strategy dumped, but not enough.

Saylor did crash bitcoin. Many market participants are somehow oblivious to this. If you know the cause, you can determine what's needed to reverse the trend (aside of liquidations). https://t.co/ROMO0NDzAX

Asset performance since August 2017 #1 +5,220% — Nvidia #2 +3,450% — Micron #3 +1,820% — Broadcom #4 +1,730% — Tesla #5 +1,410% — Bitcoin #6 +1,120% — TSM #7 +680% — Google #8 +670% — Samsung #9 +430% — Nasdaq #10 +330% — Silver #11 +240% — Nikkei #12 +230% — Gold #13 +210% — S&P 500 #14 +82% — Euro Stoxx 50 #15 +37% — China A50

Asset performance since August 2017 #1 +5,220% — Nvidia #2 +3,450% — Micron #3 +1,820% — Broadcom #4 +1,730% — Tesla #5 +1,410% — Bitcoin #6 +1,120% — TSM #7 +680% — Google #8 +670% — Samsung #9 +430% — Nasdaq #10 +330% — Silver #11 +240% — Nikkei #12 +230% — Gold #13 +210% — S&P 500 #14 +82% — Euro Stoxx 50 #15 +37% — China A50

Asset performance since August 2017 #1 +5,220% — Nvidia #2 +3,450% — Micron #3 +1,820% — Broadcom #4 +1,730% — Tesla #5 +1,410% — Bitcoin #6 +1,120% — TSM #7 +680% — Google #8 +670% — Samsung #9 +430% — Nasdaq #10 +330% — Silver #11 +240% — Nikkei #12 +230% — Gold #13 +210% — S&P 500 #14 +82% — Euro Stoxx 50 #15 +37% — China A50

The problem with STRC is not STRC itself, but rather overdoing it, as Saylor did. Can also argue ETH has a higher capacity to generate yield, onchain, to pay for the dividends, making it more sustainable than STRC. https://t.co/OnnEpmNk2R