NeutralHYPEHyperliquidHyperliquidBTCBitcoinBitcoinZECZcashZcash

6/3/2026 on

I largely think of "crypto" as a failed asset class at this point. I've written about the causes multiple times. Mainly, most crypto assets are worthless, or have dreadful value accrual, and most founders have abused the lack of guardrails and dumped on people indiscriminately, or are outright scammers. On top of that we had the Memecoins SuperBullshitCycle, a trend that brought the worst out of people, and sucked everyone's souls & pockets dry. And then came the never-ending wave of DeFi hacks, which has dramatically increased since last April. This can seem contradictory, as adoption of "crypto" is surging: > Stablecoin adoption continues growing fast > Politicians in the US are openly pro crypto > Tradfi is looking at tokenizing everything > Usage of equities & commodities perps is exploding in offshore and DeFi exchanges > The US is in the early stages of adopting perps > Prediction markets are becoming part of everyone's daily lives These are more "blockchain" than "crypto", although there are some exceptions with a token in those fields, most of which have been performing very well in recent months. A few among those exceptions even distribute most revenue to holders via buybacks (Hyperliquid in particular), which is what every investor actually wants to see to be invested in a good business rather than a fleeting narrative. We also have the privacy category. The one old school crypto category that is not liquid diarrhea. The world needs private non-custodial stores of value. Crime in particular needs privacy, as proven by the DoJ confiscation of $15 billion in Bitcoin from Cambodia's pig butchering farms, legal filing for which was submitted on October 8, 2025 (coincidentally right before 10/10). Of course, everyone needs privacy, not just criminals, but crime flows are real, and large. The asset attracting the most flows in this niche is Zcash. Zcash's recent performance has been fascinating, as it has been trending higher with bitcoin trending lower, a sign of real reallocation among bitcoiners. Another crypto category that is not dead is the "AI" category, full of high flying, fundamentally lacking, narrative driven tokens. The standout exception is Venice, a private AI platform with growing users and revenue, whose tokens are directly backed by the business rather than a narrative. So one could say old "crypto" is a failed asset class, but from the ashes come new beginnings, and the new face of crypto is one heavily dominated by the needs of Tradfi, prediction markets, AI, and privacy. Crypto sucks. Long live crypto.

Bearish(Nuanced)HYPEHyperliquidHyperliquidBTCBitcoinBitcoin

2/6/2026 on

What went wrong with crypto 1. 10/10 slaughter (will I get sued if I mention Binance?). 2. Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) hangover. 3. Reversed flows from crime syndicates: major flows reversed after the DoJ indictment of the Cambodian Prince Group last October. 4. Quantum fears (real). 5. Enormous AI opportunities (opportunity cost): - capital pivoting to AI - talent pivoting to AI - miners pivoting to AI 6. Perception of Bitcoin as American: few Chinese buyers, who had been behind the metals uptrend in large numbers. 7. The Swamp & Institutions taking over, overcrowding OGs and retail - Pivot from Cypherpunk/Rebel tech to ETF tech. - Crypto used to be for misfits & geniuses, now it's a line item in a 401k. 8. Trump association and political risks: what happens once Democrats are back? 9. Minimal innovation (since Hyperliquid). 10. Solana casino massacre (thank Pump Fun & the Memecoin Supercycle). 11. Oversupply of coins: there are 29.91 million cryptocurrencies tracked by CoinMarketCap. 12. Almost every coin in the top 200 is grossly overvalued and has had a broken chart for a while. 13. Never ending array of token launches that pump then dump to oblivion where only insiders profit. 14. Dead digital gold narrative. 15. Several categories of equities imploding (e.g. Software). That killed momentum. With sellers dumping more aggressively than usual on every pump, and buyers not showing up to buy the dips as much any longer. And then came the Warsh nomination (beating Hassett and Rieder), and the market suddenly became deeply aware that Warsh is a strong advocate of a small balance sheet: goodbye Queantitative Easing (QE) and Yield Curve Control (YCC) dreams, hello Quantitative Tightening (QT) fears. That is what happened. Please note this post is strictly descriptive, it tells you what happened, in the past. Prices have already crashed. Several metrics such as volume, liquidations, implied volatility and options skew indicate that a local bottom is likely in.