Called $XAU bullish on Oct 8, 2023: $XAU rose 187% in 28 months.
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🇦🇷 Economist. Trader. Advisory. Sharing views on global markets.
Cite asCryptoQuant has tracked the directional calls on CL by @krugermacro on X since Jan 2021: not yet scored on CL (as of Nov 11, 2026).
Other assets covered (26)
4 CL calls on record, a thin history.
Relative view by default: fewer than 30 CL calls or days on record.
Sentiment timeline shows relative sentiment within this analyst's history. A perma-bull showing 8 bullish : 2 bearish in a bear market sets that as their baseline. If you notice any errors, claim @krugermacro to submit corrections.
Called $XAU bullish on Oct 8, 2023: $XAU rose 187% in 28 months.
View call →Hover the chart to read the thesis of that period · click a day to pin it
➤ Winners: hyperscalers, select datacenters, precious metals. ➤ Losers: memory, Nvidia, crypto. ➤ Flat: indices, semis, bonds. WULF +20.2% AMZN +10.9% Silver +7.8% CRWV +7.8% SPCX +7.2% META +6.9% GOOG +3.7% TAN +3.5% Gold +3.5% SOXX +1.1% Nasdaq +0.8% S&P +0.6% TLT -1.1% TSLA -3.4% BTC -3.8% IREN -5.3% ETH -8.6% NVDA -13.0% ZEC -13.3% SNDK -13.5% HYPE -13.6% This is all truly remarkable given that we had a 1-day 6.25% drop in the Nasdaq, hot CPI and an FOMC member (Waller) threatening a 50bp hike in December. And if we see de-escalation in Iran, which would help the Fed turn less hawkish (every single FOMC member is now hawkish), we will have all the conditions for a massive hated rally into year end (namely, shorts galore).
Asset performance since (midterms) Election Day showing clear winners and losers, with indices now slightly positive despite all the hysteria. ➤ Winners: hyperscalers, select datacenters, precious metals. ➤ Losers: memory, Nvidia, crypto. ➤ Flat: indices, semis, bonds. WULF +20.2% AMZN +10.9% Silver +7.8% CRWV +7.8% SPCX +7.2% META +6.9% GOOG +3.7% TAN +3.5% Gold +3.5% SOXX +1.1% Nasdaq +0.8% S&P +0.6% TLT -1.1% TSLA -3.4% BTC -3.8% IREN -5.3% ETH -8.6% NVDA -13.0% ZEC -13.3% SNDK -13.5% HYPE -13.6% This is all truly remarkable given that we had a 1-day 6.25% drop in the Nasdaq, hot CPI and an FOMC member (Waller) threatening a 50bp hike in December. And if we see de-escalation in Iran, which would help the Fed turn less hawkish (every single FOMC member is now hawkish), we will have all the conditions for a massive hated rally into year end (namely, shorts galore).
View original →Today marks the second time in history the Nasdaq fell more than 5% and Bitcoin fell less than the Nasdaq. The other time was on March 16, 2020. Mar 16, 2020: QQQ -12.0%, BTC -10.6% Nov 5, 2026: QQQ -6.4%, BTC -5.3%
View original →Midterm review of my 2026 year-end calls ➤ peace in the ME=> no peace but no kinetic war ⚠️ ➤ higher inflation => CPI from 2.4% YoY to 3.7% YoY✅ ➤ non-hawkish Fed => the Fed is hiking❌ ➤ Blue wave => historical GOP defeat ✅ ➤ S&P up 10% or more => up 15% ✅ ➤ BTC up 25% to 33% => up 8% ⚠️ ➤ Spain or Argentina as new world champions ✅ It's easy to forget how bad things were back in April.
View original →I'm expecting a trend change in crypto today if payrolls data (NFP) comes in soft. If not today, then the trend change will have to wait for the market to price in higher odds of no hike at the July FOMC (Jul/29). The next catalysts for that repricing are the FOMC minutes (Jul/8) and CPI (Jul/14). If CPI comes in hot, the repricing waits until the July FOMC itself. NFP, CPI, the minutes, and FOMC speeches are more important than ever given Warsh's no forward guidance policy. I expect no hike on Jul/29, given the Middle East cease fire and inflation having peaked, but the market is not so sure and needs data to hold its hand until then. A hike would be extremely bearish. Without forward guidance, the market would have a hard time distinguishing between an "insurance hike" and the start of a hiking cycle. The main drag on crypto in the last six weeks has been BTC and Saylor, whose unfortunate actions (using cash reserves to repurchase 2029 converts + making a test bitcoin sale) drove price from 82K to 58K. That risk is now mostly gone, at least for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, the main drags on equities and risk assets in general in the last two weeks have been a) the US-Iran cease fire exhausting most of the de-escalation upside, b) a hawkish June FOMC, and c) reignited AI bubble fears (misplaced IMO).
View original →nobody: crypto twitter: the AI private credit crash will send BTC to $1 million
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