Called $XAU bullish on Oct 8, 2023: $XAU rose 187% in 28 months.
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🇦🇷 Economist. Trader. Advisory. Sharing views on global markets.
Cite asCryptoQuant has tracked the directional calls on XAU by @krugermacro on X since Jan 2021: not yet scored on XAU (as of Nov 11, 2026).
Other assets covered (25)
8 XAU calls on record, a thin history.
Relative view by default: fewer than 30 XAU calls or days on record.
Sentiment timeline shows relative sentiment within this analyst's history. A perma-bull showing 8 bullish : 2 bearish in a bear market sets that as their baseline. If you notice any errors, claim @krugermacro to submit corrections.
Called $XAU bullish on Oct 8, 2023: $XAU rose 187% in 28 months.
View call →Hover the chart to read the thesis of that period · click a day to pin it
Today marks the second time in history the Nasdaq fell more than 5% and Bitcoin fell less than the Nasdaq. The other time was on March 16, 2020. Mar 16, 2020: QQQ -12.0%, BTC -10.6% Nov 5, 2026: QQQ -6.4%, BTC -5.3%
View original →Midterm review of my 2026 year-end calls ➤ peace in the ME=> no peace but no kinetic war ⚠️ ➤ higher inflation => CPI from 2.4% YoY to 3.7% YoY✅ ➤ non-hawkish Fed => the Fed is hiking❌ ➤ Blue wave => historical GOP defeat ✅ ➤ S&P up 10% or more => up 15% ✅ ➤ BTC up 25% to 33% => up 8% ⚠️ ➤ Spain or Argentina as new world champions ✅ It's easy to forget how bad things were back in April.
View original →I'm expecting a trend change in crypto today if payrolls data (NFP) comes in soft. If not today, then the trend change will have to wait for the market to price in higher odds of no hike at the July FOMC (Jul/29). The next catalysts for that repricing are the FOMC minutes (Jul/8) and CPI (Jul/14). If CPI comes in hot, the repricing waits until the July FOMC itself. NFP, CPI, the minutes, and FOMC speeches are more important than ever given Warsh's no forward guidance policy. I expect no hike on Jul/29, given the Middle East cease fire and inflation having peaked, but the market is not so sure and needs data to hold its hand until then. A hike would be extremely bearish. Without forward guidance, the market would have a hard time distinguishing between an "insurance hike" and the start of a hiking cycle. The main drag on crypto in the last six weeks has been BTC and Saylor, whose unfortunate actions (using cash reserves to repurchase 2029 converts + making a test bitcoin sale) drove price from 82K to 58K. That risk is now mostly gone, at least for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, the main drags on equities and risk assets in general in the last two weeks have been a) the US-Iran cease fire exhausting most of the de-escalation upside, b) a hawkish June FOMC, and c) reignited AI bubble fears (misplaced IMO).
View original →nobody: crypto twitter: the AI private credit crash will send BTC to $1 million
View original →I don't see it what way. Saylor has one job, and one tool. To accumulate BTC, by tapping capital markets. If he were to sell (or have sold) $2B of BTC after buying $2B at $80,985 in the week of May 12–18, for a 20% loss, that would represent a major blunder. One thing is to sell a little to harvest tax losses. An entirely different thing is to blow up $400 million in 2.5 weeks by buying & selling BTC like a degenerate gambler. Best case scenario: BTC just goes up a lot, all problems solved. Bad case scenario: BTC fails to rally, Strategy lowers the dividend on STRC to make it sustainable. Worst case scenario: Strategy dumped/dumps BTC, shows the world the largest BTC holder, with 4% of the total supply, compounds mistakes, is unreliable, and can't be trusted in doing what it is supposed to be doing: accumulating BTC. Nightmare scenario: Strategy dumped, but not enough.
Consensus seems to believe that if Saylor did not sell a lot of BTC last week (e.g. $2B), then bitcoin is doomed. I don't see it what way. Saylor has one job, and one tool. To accumulate BTC, by tapping capital markets. If he were to sell (or have sold) $2B of BTC after buying $2B at $80,985 in the week of May 12–18, for a 20% loss, that would represent a major blunder. One thing is to sell a little to harvest tax losses. An entirely different thing is to blow up $400 million in 2.5 weeks by buying & selling BTC like a degenerate gambler. Best case scenario: BTC just goes up a lot, all problems solved. Bad case scenario: BTC fails to rally, Strategy lowers the dividend on STRC to make it sustainable. Worst case scenario: Strategy dumped/dumps BTC, shows the world the largest BTC holder, with 4% of the total supply, compounds mistakes, is unreliable, and can't be trusted in doing what it is supposed to be doing: accumulating BTC. Nightmare scenario: Strategy dumped, but not enough.
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