David Duong

Onchain credit still mostly fails at protecting the people funding it. The writeup attached is a clean walk through on why-- underwriting can stop at the entity, backstops can be priced in the protocol’s own token, and shared pools can turned one bad asset into everyone’s problem. The design bet behind Axcess is the part worth discussing. Grade the borrower before any capital moves, put a seizable first-loss buffer of the borrower’s own cash ahead of lenders, and ring-fence each name so one default doesn't become a systemic issue. Two caveats, because they matter: 1⃣The Credora process described here is not live yet. And there is no loss history. Until both exist, this is still architecture, not evidence. 2⃣I advise Axcess through my consulting company. This is not a solicitation and not investment advice.

I'm waiting for markets to pick up after Jackson Hole and for BTC to appreciate towards end-Q3 or early Q4. On the other hand, my boss used to remind me that you can pick the direction or you can pick the timing, but you rarely nail both. https://t.co/yW6tpmWogB

Always a fan of being on the Wolf of All Streets podcast with @scottmelker ... thanks to my panelists @dmweisberger and @mikemcglone11 for chatting all things macro! https://t.co/mjsooP79Be

I had fun this morning jumping into Macro Monday with @scottmelker @TFMkts @dmweisberger - thanks gentlemen for the conversation (and sorry for running a little late)! https://t.co/4gvCsjYb0b

"The best setups rarely show up when everyone feels good." That's a good summary of my views at the moment, thanks @milkroaddaily for having me on the show. I still think the macro setup looks good and that the secular core disinflationary trend remains intact. But DYOH, I'm not here to give any investment advice. https://t.co/qCwpMLvJuQ

After nearly five years, my time with @CoinbaseInsto as Global Head of Research has finally come to a close. While it's a bittersweet end to this chapter of my life, I'm genuinely grateful to have had the opportunity to work alongside such talented colleagues and wonderful friends (sincerely some of the smartest yet down-to-earth people I've ever come across), and I'm proud of all that we've accomplished together. To my team, thank you for all of your support, collaboration, and trust. For now, I'm planning to unplug from markets for a while and think about what I want to do next. Feel free to DM me if you want to chat.

Thanks for the great discussion @MilkRoad ! https://t.co/hDh8dz8e4J

As the Iran ceasefire headlines hit and BTC starts to catch a bid again, options are pricing an unusually wide cone of outcomes over the next year. Below we map the BTC straddle/strangle breakeven paths as a probability cone showing you how the market is trying to reconcile a potential de-escalation in the Gulf, shifting expectations for global liquidity, and the residual “war premium” embedded in BTC volatility.

In this episode of Coinbase Markets Podcast, we cover everything from Iran peace talks and the equities earnings backdrop to bitcoin’s increasingly important test near $80K. We discuss why rising spot ETF inflows and tighter float have made BTC’s rebound more meaningful, but not yet a confirmed regime shift, and why the short-term holder cost basis remains the key level to watch. We also examine the fallout from the KelpDAO exploit, how AI may increase the risk in DeFi, and why prediction markets have evolved from a niche crypto product into a multi-billion-dollar industry driven by sports, geopolitics, and changing user behavior.

We've got a busy week in markets coming up: 1⃣U.S. / Iran peace talks (or standoff) 2⃣Month-end, when we tend to see meaningful portfolio rebalancing activity from large institutional investors 3⃣Earnings from key tech firms including Amazon, Apple, Google, Meta and Microsoft 4⃣Fed’s FOMC meeting, though this may have less significance from a policy perspective (post meeting press conference may still offer some insight) Plus, robust U.S. tax receipts have recently replenished the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA balance) to over $1T in April, which should give way to a better liquidity backdrop when the government begins its scheduled outlays in May Amid all that, bitcoin’s recent rebound looks meaningful because real demand grew amid a tightening float. Yes, the break above $75k was probably driven in part by the spike in short liquidations, but "short squeeze" oversimplifies what may be happening. Many important trend reversals and market structure breaks have started with liquidation-driven moves. The forced buying from shorts can be the catalyst that gets price through a key technical or onchain threshold, and once that threshold breaks, real demand can step in behind it. From here, we view bitcoin’s short-term holder cost basis near $80K as a critical level. (For reference, the short-term holder (STH) cost basis refers to the average onchain acquisition price of wallets holding coins for less than 155 days.) If bitcoin can reclaim and hold the $80K level, the move could start to look less like a bear-market rally and more like a transition back toward a constructive trend.