TheBigBerbowski

Despite the size of the 2027 number, current estimates still have AI capex growing further in 2028 and potentially toward ~$1.4T. A large share of the $1.2T+ expected 2027 AI capex should flow into: Memory / Storage: $SKHY $SSNLF $SNDK $KXIAY $WDC $STX CPUs: $AMD $ARM $INTC Data Center / AI Infrastructure: $NBIS $IREN $CIFR Optical / Networking: $LITE $COHR $AAOI $CRDO $ANET Power / Cooling / Electrical: $VRT $ETN $FIX $PWR

Despite the size of the 2027 number, current estimates still have AI capex growing further in 2028 and potentially toward ~$1.4T. A large share of the $1.2T+ expected 2027 AI capex should flow into: Memory / Storage: $SKHY $SSNLF $SNDK $KXIAY $WDC $STX CPUs: $AMD $ARM $INTC Data Center / AI Infrastructure: $NBIS $IREN $CIFR Optical / Networking: $LITE $COHR $AAOI $CRDO $ANET Power / Cooling / Electrical: $VRT $ETN $FIX $PWR

Despite the size of the 2027 number, current estimates still have AI capex growing further in 2028 and potentially toward ~$1.4T. A large share of the $1.2T+ expected 2027 AI capex should flow into: Memory / Storage: $SKHY $SSNLF $SNDK $KXIAY $WDC $STX CPUs: $AMD $ARM $INTC Data Center / AI Infrastructure: $NBIS $IREN $CIFR Optical / Networking: $LITE $COHR $AAOI $CRDO $ANET Power / Cooling / Electrical: $VRT $ETN $FIX $PWR

Despite the size of the 2027 number, current estimates still have AI capex growing further in 2028 and potentially toward ~$1.4T. A large share of the $1.2T+ expected 2027 AI capex should flow into: Memory / Storage: $SKHY $SSNLF $SNDK $KXIAY $WDC $STX CPUs: $AMD $ARM $INTC Data Center / AI Infrastructure: $NBIS $IREN $CIFR Optical / Networking: $LITE $COHR $AAOI $CRDO $ANET Power / Cooling / Electrical: $VRT $ETN $FIX $PWR

A lot of money to be spent, and millionaires will be made picking capex receivers. And despite the size of the 2027 number, current estimates still have AI capex growing further in 2028 and potentially toward ~$1.4T. A large share of the $1.2T+ expected 2027 AI capex should flow into: Memory / Storage: $SKHY $SSNLF $SNDK $KXIAY $WDC $STX CPUs: $AMD $ARM $INTC Data Center / AI Infrastructure: $NBIS $IREN $CIFR Optical / Networking: $LITE $COHR $AAOI $CRDO $ANET Power / Cooling / Electrical: $VRT $ETN $FIX $PWR

A lot of money to be spent, and millionaires will be made picking capex receivers. And despite the size of the 2027 number, current estimates still have AI capex growing further in 2028 and potentially toward ~$1.4T. A large share of the $1.2T+ expected 2027 AI capex should flow into: Memory / Storage: $SKHY $SSNLF $SNDK $KXIAY $WDC $STX CPUs: $AMD $ARM $INTC Data Center / AI Infrastructure: $NBIS $IREN $CIFR Optical / Networking: $LITE $COHR $AAOI $CRDO $ANET Power / Cooling / Electrical: $VRT $ETN $FIX $PWR

A lot of money to be spent, and millionaires will be made picking capex receivers. And despite the size of the 2027 number, current estimates still have AI capex growing further in 2028 and potentially toward ~$1.4T. A large share of the $1.2T+ expected 2027 AI capex should flow into: Memory / Storage: $SKHY $SSNLF $SNDK $KXIAY $WDC $STX CPUs: $AMD $ARM $INTC Data Center / AI Infrastructure: $NBIS $IREN $CIFR Optical / Networking: $LITE $COHR $AAOI $CRDO $ANET Power / Cooling / Electrical: $VRT $ETN $FIX $PWR

A lot of money to be spent, and millionaires will be made picking capex receivers. And despite the size of the 2027 number, current estimates still have AI capex growing further in 2028 and potentially toward ~$1.4T. A large share of the $1.2T+ expected 2027 AI capex should flow into: Memory / Storage: $SKHY $SSNLF $SNDK $KXIAY $WDC $STX CPUs: $AMD $ARM $INTC Data Center / AI Infrastructure: $NBIS $IREN $CIFR Optical / Networking: $LITE $COHR $AAOI $CRDO $ANET Power / Cooling / Electrical: $VRT $ETN $FIX $PWR

I read recently how BofA remains confident that the memory super-cycle can extend through 2028–2030, supported by high ASPs, strong demand and continued supply tightness. I’ve been following the memory/storage AI story closely for more than a year, and one thing is clear: the industry is still being valued through the lens of its historical cyclicality. That is visible in the multiples. Most DRAM makers still trade at roughly 5–7x forward earnings, while storage names trade slightly higher but still very low. Despite the massive earnings growth, the market is clearly still asking the same question: When does the music stop? - Do ASPs peak? - Does demand peak? - Does supply eventually catch up? Those are all good questions. We all know that memory has been cyclical since the beginning, and I’m not going to argue that cyclicality suddenly disappeared. My argument is different: the structure of this cycle is changing. SCAs/LTAs are giving suppliers greater visibility and potentially extending the duration of favorable pricing and utilization. Also, memory and storage are no longer just components attached to the AI story. They are becoming part of the underlying AI infrastructure itself. Training needs memory. Inference needs memory. AI agents need memory. Physical AI and robotics will need memory. Data centers need enormous amounts of storage. Virtually every layer of modern computing depends on memory and storage somewhere in the stack. Will ASPs eventually come down? Of course. Will supply eventually catch up with a large part of demand? Almost certainly. But that does not automatically mean the outcome looks like previous memory cycles. The market may continue treating memory as a cyclical industry, and fundamentally it still is one. The entire economy is cyclical. But cyclical does not necessarily mean the cycle has to look the same every time. My thesis is not that memory has stopped being cyclical. It is that AI may be creating a longer, stronger and structurally more valuable cycle than the market is currently pricing in. I was and still am very bullish long term on: Samsung ($SSNLF) $SKHY $MU $SNDK Kioxia ($KXIAY) $WDC $STX I wrote about my take on Micron (article below, also free version via link in my bio) where I presented my case on what will happen with lower ASPs and lower gross margin, and what Chinese competitors can do to take away market share from KR/US producers.

I read recently how BofA remains confident that the memory super-cycle can extend through 2028–2030, supported by high ASPs, strong demand and continued supply tightness. I’ve been following the memory/storage AI story closely for more than a year, and one thing is clear: the industry is still being valued through the lens of its historical cyclicality. That is visible in the multiples. Most DRAM makers still trade at roughly 5–7x forward earnings, while storage names trade slightly higher but still very low. Despite the massive earnings growth, the market is clearly still asking the same question: When does the music stop? - Do ASPs peak? - Does demand peak? - Does supply eventually catch up? Those are all good questions. We all know that memory has been cyclical since the beginning, and I’m not going to argue that cyclicality suddenly disappeared. My argument is different: the structure of this cycle is changing. SCAs/LTAs are giving suppliers greater visibility and potentially extending the duration of favorable pricing and utilization. Also, memory and storage are no longer just components attached to the AI story. They are becoming part of the underlying AI infrastructure itself. Training needs memory. Inference needs memory. AI agents need memory. Physical AI and robotics will need memory. Data centers need enormous amounts of storage. Virtually every layer of modern computing depends on memory and storage somewhere in the stack. Will ASPs eventually come down? Of course. Will supply eventually catch up with a large part of demand? Almost certainly. But that does not automatically mean the outcome looks like previous memory cycles. The market may continue treating memory as a cyclical industry, and fundamentally it still is one. The entire economy is cyclical. But cyclical does not necessarily mean the cycle has to look the same every time. My thesis is not that memory has stopped being cyclical. It is that AI may be creating a longer, stronger and structurally more valuable cycle than the market is currently pricing in. I was and still am very bullish long term on: Samsung ($SSNLF) $SKHY $MU $SNDK Kioxia ($KXIAY) $WDC $STX I wrote about my take on Micron (article below, also free version via link in my bio) where I presented my case on what will happen with lower ASPs and lower gross margin, and what Chinese competitors can do to take away market share from KR/US producers.