Gas prices will remain above $4 a gallon (nat'l average) through the election. That's a significant shift from recent past. Even 2022 was about fifty cents lower November 2026: Likely to be ~$4.30 to $4.40 November 2024: $3.07 November 2022: $3.80 November 2020: $2.11 November 2018: $2.75 November 2016: $2.23 Brent oil prices just spiked to nearly their highest level since the war in Iran began ($116, about $2 off the spring highs). WTI oil price for the US just topped $103, which is about $10 off the spring highs. Bottom line: Oil/gas prices aren't going down until there's a resolution to the war.

There's a big warning sign in the bond market. The 10-year yield topped 4.84% today --> the highest since November 2023. Why? 1) Inflation is picking up again. Diesel nearing $6. Brent oil over $100/barrel. More trade wars. More AI/chip demand. More healthcare cost increases 2) Will the Fed act? They will likely hike in September, but it's still a question mark. 3) US debt at $40 Trillion. Annual deficit set to top $2 Trillion. And there's no action to address it 4) AI bond issuance is big and many investors prefer loaning money to tech than the US gov't 5) US Treasury intervention triples to $6 billion. That looks desperate. If anything, it's backfiring. This is not a "debt crisis," but it's a warning. Good breakdown on this podcast on what it means: https://t.co/ekhY7PKRKs