WMTWalmartNeutralWalmart

4/8/2026

April Excess Return Video Interview

Monthly Conversation with the gang from Excess Return Podcast Monthly Conversation with the gang from Excess Return Podcast Monday, I had the great pleasure of joining Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau) from the Excess Return Podcast for another monthly podcast. This month we visited about a wide variety of topics including the potential impact of the Iranian conflict, some thoughts on the Walmart Recession Indicator suggesting at least a s…

WMTWalmartNeutralWalmart

3/30/2026

Walmart Worries?

Walmart said WHAT? Walmart said WHAT? Paulsen Perspectives is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

OPOptimismNeutralOptimism

5/8/2025

A Collection of Charts

Bond market appears normal, job growth is recession-like, investors worry about recession, not inflation, risk to gold is optimism, money funds declining, so much inflation worry, so little inflation. Bond market appears normal, job growth is recession-like, investors worry about recession, not inflation, risk to gold is optimism, money funds declining, so much inflation worry, so little inflation. Paulsen Perspectives is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

OPOptimismNeutralOptimism

12/12/2024

The BIG Untapped Asset -- Confidence

Don’t underestimate the power of something we have not yet witnessed in this recovery/Bull market cycle – the potential emergence of “Animal Spirits”! Don’t underestimate the power of something we have not yet witnessed in this recovery/Bull market cycle – the potential emergence of “Animal Spirits”! The economy and the stock market are driven by several factors – interest rates, monetary and fiscal policies, the inflation rate, productivity, job creation, and profitability – to name just a few. But probably one of the biggest factors, and often overlooked, is private sector confidence. Nobody starts a new company, expands existing operations, adds staff, quits a job for a better perceived opportunity, or buys a new house without optimism and confidence in the future! Indeed, when pessimism rules and grips the psyche of economic players, little else matters. Once the private sector becomes severely depressed and petrified, even massive fiscal juice, negative interest rates, and a mountain of money supply will struggle in reviving the economy. Similarly, when Main Street becomes irrationally exuberant, as the maestro Alan Greenspan experienced, it can prove equally daunting to moderate with conventional economic tools.

IWMRussell 2000BullishRussell 2000

7/12/2024

Sour Economic Surprises are Sweet for SMALLS!

Sour economic surprises may spark overdue small-cap leadership change, as of July 2024.