Called $BTC bullish on Sep 9, 2024: $BTC rose 79% in 4 months.
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Helping navigate #Bitcoin's volatility Newsletter https://t.co/omfQHUqMjb Onchain Analyst @_checkonchain Charting Suite https://t.co/5DH6Z9lWT1
Cite asCryptoQuant has tracked the directional calls on XMR by @_Checkmatey_ on X since Jan 2021: not yet scored on XMR (as of Nov 11, 2026).
Relative view by default: fewer than 30 XMR calls or days on record.
Sentiment timeline shows relative sentiment within this analyst's history. A perma-bull showing 8 bullish : 2 bearish in a bear market sets that as their baseline. If you notice any errors, claim @_Checkmatey_ to submit corrections.
Called $BTC bullish on Sep 9, 2024: $BTC rose 79% in 4 months.
View call →Hover the chart to read the thesis of that period · click a day to pin it
By The Fingernails
G’day Folks, Bitcoin is hanging onto $75k by its fingernails. Just below $75k is an air-pocket where very little trade volume has occurred, and very few onchain cost basis levels exist. Generally speaking, these air-pockets have a tendency to be back-filled once price trades into them, as very little support was established on the way up. As we’ve covered in prior editions, the zone between $75k and $72k is pretty critical for the bulls to defend as it represents the deepest this correction can go whilst remaining healthy and constructive. In today’s note, I will examine the degree of panic which is occurring amongst investor cohorts in response to recent price weakness. We will then bolster this with a read on the interesting mix of both bullish and bearish setups forming across spot and futures markets. We have a very interesting mix of positive and negative signals in the market right now, and analysing each sector helps us think through scenarios ahead of time, so we’re never caught by surprise. Become a Premium subscriber to access today’s Video Update (Audio-only option available) , Written Article and TL;DR Summary . Read more
View original →Election Slam
G’day Folks, Price action over the last 48-hours has been pretty wild. After an initial positive rally following the Democrats' sweep of the US mid-term elections, most assets have since traded sharply down. Tech stocks in particular were crushed, with the NASDAQ-100 selling off by -7.3%. Given how polarised politics currently is, the pendulum is only likely to swing harder and faster between each pole in the years ahead. Politics is very much dominated by ‘the protest vote’, where the public’s tolerance for the incumbent NOT sticking to their word is extremely thin. In my opinion, there is a good case to be made for a capital rotation event amongst assets given how clear cut the election results were. There are assets (like the AI-trade) which have been heavily in favour recently, but may now come under a great deal more scrutiny if politics decides to take the wind out of the data-centre build out sails. Today is a session where I will share my open thoughts across a bunch of markets including the AI-trade, gold, and of course Bitcoin. Become a Premium subscriber to access today’s Video Update (Audio-only option available) and TL;DR Summary . Read more
View original →October Q&A: Q4 crash risk, BTC inflows, top signals, DCA selling + more
Join James and Alec as they answer our Premium subscribers' top questions about the Bitcoin market. Join James and Alec as they answer our Premium subscribers' top Bitcoin questions.
View original →First Gut Check
We have our first serious gut check since Bitcoin broke away from its bear market lows. So far the Short-Term Holder cost basis has held at $75.8k, but is it enough to keep the bears at bay? We have our first serious gut check since Bitcoin broke away from its bear market lows. So far the Short-Term Holder cost basis has held at $75.8k, but is it enough to keep the bears at bay?
View original →Flash Update: Halloween Headlines
G’day Folks, We’re living in a very vulnerable age these days with cyber-security holes being exploited left, right and centre. Binance is the largest exchange in the world and has just suffered a hack of more than $5.5B worth of crypto-assets. The headlines have sent Bitcoin down to $76k as traders and algorithms abandon ship. In today’s flash market update, I wanted to share my thoughts about this event and my thoughts on how Bitcoin is trading. It’s very easy to get swept up in the near term chaos during events like this. To ground ourselves, let’s see how market participants are responding onchain, as that will illuminate the degree of the concern being expressed through investor actions, rather than through headlines and retweets. Become a Premium subscriber to access today’s Video Update (Audio-only option available), and TL;DR Summary . Read more
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