XLEEnergy Select Sector SPDR FundNeutralEnergy Select Sector SPDR FundURNMSprott Uranium Miners ETFBullishSprott Uranium Miners ETF

Yesterday on

URANIUM MINERS VS OIL PRODUCERS I have explained in a recent article (below) why did I rebalance from oil producers (taking profits on a large part of my position) to uranium miners, which strongly corrected in 2026. Fast forward to today, uranium miners have already outperformed oil producers by 11%, as the URNM-to-XLE ratio shows. Indeed, being an energy bull, I however know that while most energy source follow relatively similar long-term cycles, they may diverge over the short- to medium-term. Here is why I do not hesitate to take profits on recent winners (oil producers in that moment) to allocate additional funds to laggards whose upside potential remains important (uranium miners here). $URNM and $XLE used as proxies here.

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2d ago on

BASIC MATERIAL VS OIL PRODUCERS The basic-materials-producers-to-oil-producers ratio has most likely made a bottom 1 standard deviation below its long-term trend. From this level, while reaching the ratio's long-term trend would imply a 26% outperformance for basic materials producers, overshooting to reach +1σ would bring this outperformance to 55% outperformance. Likely a good time to rebalance. $IYM and $XLE used as proxies.

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4d ago on

OIL SERVICES > OIL PRODUCERS I have just published a short note on my preference at this stage for oil producers and the reasons for it after my recent rebalancing. Link in comment below ↓ $IEZ $XLE

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5d ago on

COMMODITIES VS STOCKS As markets are selling off, one should remember that the S&P500-to-Commodities ratio still trades more than 1 standard deviation above its long-term trend. From here, while reaching +2σ would imply a 16% outperformance for the stock index relative to commodities, reaching -1σ would generate a 43% underperformance. So, while timing is the hardest thing, valuations tell us that the US index remains expensive relative to commodities. $GSCI used as a proxy for commodities. #OOTT $XLE $VOO

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1w ago on

ENERGY - TIME TO REBALANCE? Oil's recent breakout did not hold so far. Nonetheless, despite yesterday's sell-off, oil remains up 50% since July. STAYING LONG OR TAKING PROFITS? WHY NOT BOTH? This failure to hold could trigger some more downside over the short-term (not certain) and more volatility (very likely). While I remain long oil equities (small-caps and oil services), I now overweight uranium miners within in my energy allocation. Indeed, as one cannot predict the future with certainty, the right approach is to overweight assets with the most asymetric risk-rewards. Given uranium's recent correction, which led the uranium-to-oil ratio to reach 1σ below trend (close to its usual bottom level), the nuclear energy source seems to be the cheapest of the two at the moment. I will then take some more profits on oil producers to increase my uranium miner allocation (already increased recently, as described in the article in comment below). This is a tactical play, which I would reverse should the below ratio reach its usual top level at +2.5σ (i.e. expensive uranium relative to oil). No sentiment involved here, just an opportunistic way to manage my portfolio. $U.UN used as a proxy. $URNM $XLE