Called $COPPER bullish on Apr 18, 2025: $COPPER rose 20% in 3 months.
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Commodities | Stocks | FX | Macro Value + Momentum. Finding asymmetric setups at cycle lows. My investment letter ↓ Not advice.
Cite asCryptoQuant has tracked the directional calls on SPY by @ValueSeeker_ on X since Mar 2025: not yet scored on SPY (as of Nov 11, 2026).
Other assets covered (12)
6 SPY calls on record, a thin history.
Relative view by default: fewer than 30 SPY calls or days on record.
Sentiment timeline shows relative sentiment within this analyst's history. A perma-bull showing 8 bullish : 2 bearish in a bear market sets that as their baseline. If you notice any errors, claim @ValueSeeker_ to submit corrections.
Called $COPPER bullish on Apr 18, 2025: $COPPER rose 20% in 3 months.
View call →Hover the chart to read the thesis of that period · click a day to pin it
COMMODITIES VS STOCKS As markets are selling off, one should remember that the S&P500-to-Commodities ratio still trades more than 1 standard deviation above its long-term trend. From here, while reaching +2σ would imply a 16% outperformance for the stock index relative to commodities, reaching -1σ would generate a 43% underperformance. So, while timing is the hardest thing, valuations tell us that the US index remains expensive relative to commodities. $GSCI used as a proxy for commodities. #OOTT $XLE $VOO
View original →S&P500 - TIME TO BE SELECTIVE The US index, adjusted for money supply, is now trading 2 standard deviations above its long-term trend, where its risk-reward is fairly negative. Indeed, while reaching 2.75σ (DotCom top level) would generate a +5% additional return, getting back to its former bottom level would imply a 75% downside move. While those are 2 extremes, this gives an idea on where the risk lies. Hopefully, not all market segments are currently expensive as factors such as small-cap and value remain affordable. Opportunistic investors can choose to broaden their horizon beyond the sole S&P500. $VOO $VTV $IWM
View original →S&P500 - OUTPERFORMING WITH THE EQUAL WEIGHT VERSION I have explained in a recent article why the equal weight versions of the S&P500 is likely to outperform the market-cap-based (classic) version: • On a long-term perspective, the equal weight version has outperformed the classic S&P500, what the equal-weight-to-classic-S&P500 ratio shows with its upward trend. • On a shorter-term perspective, the ratio is now in the lower end of its long-term cycle, where the equal-weight version not only benefits from a higher long-term potential, but also from a catch-up potential following last decade's underperformance. I went into more details into this topics, including expect payoffs, in the article below. $SPY $RSP
View original →BASIC MATERIAL VS S&P500 - BACK IN 2000 Basic materials producers have now made a double bottom relative to the S&P500, at the same level they bottomed in 2000 before a decade-long bull market. From this level, reaching the XLB-to-S&P500 ratio's former top would imply a 130% outperformance for $XLB.
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