Called $BTC bullish on Jul 29, 2021: $BTC rose 29% in 5 weeks.
View call →
Dir. of Global Macro @Fidelity. Student of history, chart maker, cyclist, cook. Helping investors break thru the clutter. Views are mine. https://t.co/9Pn7wGwMzp
accuracy score 72.3 on SPY over 161 SPY calls · 1,504 days of data · rank 1 of 18 SPY analysts (top 5.6%) · v20r-multi-sparsepen-strong-ss12m-20261012, computed Nov 11, 2026 · Methodology →
Cite asCryptoQuant has tracked 161 directional calls on SPY by @TimmerFidelity on X since Jan 2021: ranked #1 of 18 analysts scored on SPY by accuracy (as of Nov 11, 2026).
Other assets covered (11)
Relative view by default: Jurrien Timmer’s calls are mostly nuanced, so each day is read against their usual tone.
Sentiment timeline shows relative sentiment within this analyst's history. A perma-bull showing 8 bullish : 2 bearish in a bear market sets that as their baseline. If you notice any errors, claim @TimmerFidelity to submit corrections.
Called $BTC bullish on Jul 29, 2021: $BTC rose 29% in 5 weeks.
View call →Hover the chart to read the thesis of that period · click a day to pin it
The S&P 500 index is down 6% from its October high while AI stocks are down 30%+ from their highs. The equal-weighted S&P 500 index is down only 1.3% from its August high, and the S&P 500 ex-AI index is up 0.5%. There has been fierce rotation for months now, masking what might have seemed like a quiet trading range. History is full of episodes like this, where growing earnings take a backseat to tightening financial conditions. I suspect we will be in this mode for a while longer, not unlike 2018 or 2015. Friday’s modest recovery from Thursday’s 4% decline gave off a bit of a dead-cat vibe, which suggests to me that this rotation may not be over, even as many stocks remain in up-trends. Last week’s purge felt a bit like the tariff tantrum growth scare of 2025, but that one was easily reversed by a policy pivot. I’m not sure that there’s a quick pivot to the current correction, other than a successful ANT IPO and the potential for a re-rating in the Mag 7 if investors decide that the incumbents will win in a scaled-back capex cycle. They have been significantly derated since their cash flows started going to capex instead of shareholders.
View original →With the stocks/bonds correlation coming down, does that mean the 60/40 paradigm is back? I have my doubts. The chart below shows the nominal Treasury yield on the horizontal and the 260-week (5-year) correlation between the S&P 500 index and the BBG Long Treasury index on the vertical. There is a clear pattern between the level of yields and the correlation. Very low yields produce a negative correlation and higher yields produce a positive one, until the curve turns asymptotic. The size of the circles measures the 13-week correlation to give a sense of shorter correlation cycles within the larger regime. 🧵(1/2)
View original →Nevertheless, the AI sell-off has pulled the stocks/bonds correlation down with it. The 50-day correlation between the SPX and BBG long Treasury index is down to +9% even though the correlation between stocks and oil remains deeply negative at -43%. The result is that the correlation between oil and bonds is now negative at -7%. Perhaps the market is worried about demand destruction from rising oil prices instead of AI?
View original →When AI stocks zig, non-AI stocks zag. Per the correlation scatter plot below (measuring the 50-day correlation against both the BBG long Treasury index and the S&P 500 index), ex-AI stocks are only 10% correlated to the SPX while the AI/ex-AI pair is +60% correlated to the SPX and -30% correlated to bonds. That sums up how much the AI theme is dominating the price action in both equities and bonds.
View original →The S&P 500 index continues to broaden with the equal-weight index just about catching up to the cap-weighted index. However, the market is so top heavy that it’s easy to miss the fact that on Thursday 66% of stocks were in an uptrend. To me, the fact that the market is broadening puts some doubt on the notion that a growth scare has overtaken the zeitgeist. My sense is that the rising rate environment which until recently was clearly impacting P/E-multiples is only taking a breather
View original →
