Called $BTC bullish on Jul 29, 2021: $BTC rose 29% in 5 weeks.
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Dir. of Global Macro @Fidelity. Student of history, chart maker, cyclist, cook. Helping investors break thru the clutter. Views are mine. https://t.co/9Pn7wGwMzp
Cite asCryptoQuant has tracked the directional calls on QQQ by @TimmerFidelity on X since Jan 2021: not yet scored on QQQ (as of Nov 11, 2026).
Other assets covered (11)
No QQQ calls in our data yet.
Relative view by default: fewer than 30 QQQ calls or days on record.
Sentiment timeline shows relative sentiment within this analyst's history. A perma-bull showing 8 bullish : 2 bearish in a bear market sets that as their baseline. If you notice any errors, claim @TimmerFidelity to submit corrections.
Called $BTC bullish on Jul 29, 2021: $BTC rose 29% in 5 weeks.
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When markets fall hard and fast enough, correlations often converge, and we can see below that this happened last week as well. Earlier last week the ex-AI basket was only 10% correlated to the S&P 500 index, but by the end of the week it was 40%. The same applies to the S&P 500 equal-weighted index (SPW) and even REITs and Bitcoin.
View original →The S&P 500 index is down 6% from its October high while AI stocks are down 30%+ from their highs. The equal-weighted S&P 500 index is down only 1.3% from its August high, and the S&P 500 ex-AI index is up 0.5%. There has been fierce rotation for months now, masking what might have seemed like a quiet trading range. History is full of episodes like this, where growing earnings take a backseat to tightening financial conditions. I suspect we will be in this mode for a while longer, not unlike 2018 or 2015. Friday’s modest recovery from Thursday’s 4% decline gave off a bit of a dead-cat vibe, which suggests to me that this rotation may not be over, even as many stocks remain in up-trends. Last week’s purge felt a bit like the tariff tantrum growth scare of 2025, but that one was easily reversed by a policy pivot. I’m not sure that there’s a quick pivot to the current correction, other than a successful ANT IPO and the potential for a re-rating in the Mag 7 if investors decide that the incumbents will win in a scaled-back capex cycle. They have been significantly derated since their cash flows started going to capex instead of shareholders.
View original →I still prefer Bitcoin over gold for the time being, and its relative price is holding up even as both assets have sold off. https://t.co/1JKztVyqjd
View original →As for gold and Bitcoin, unfortunately they have gotten more correlated to equities lately and have joined the risk-off party in recent weeks. Both assets are 60-70% correlated to the SPX right now. https://t.co/uSILeHP2ww
View original →With the stocks/bonds correlation coming down, does that mean the 60/40 paradigm is back? I have my doubts. The chart below shows the nominal Treasury yield on the horizontal and the 260-week (5-year) correlation between the S&P 500 index and the BBG Long Treasury index on the vertical. There is a clear pattern between the level of yields and the correlation. Very low yields produce a negative correlation and higher yields produce a positive one, until the curve turns asymptotic. The size of the circles measures the 13-week correlation to give a sense of shorter correlation cycles within the larger regime. 🧵(1/2)
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