Called $BTC bullish on Jul 29, 2021: $BTC rose 29% in 5 weeks.
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Dir. of Global Macro @Fidelity. Student of history, chart maker, cyclist, cook. Helping investors break thru the clutter. Views are mine. https://t.co/9Pn7wGwMzp
Cite asCryptoQuant has tracked the directional calls on XAU by @TimmerFidelity on X since Jan 2021: not yet scored on XAU (as of Nov 11, 2026).
Other assets covered (11)
8 XAU calls on record, a thin history.
Relative view by default: fewer than 30 XAU calls or days on record.
Sentiment timeline shows relative sentiment within this analyst's history. A perma-bull showing 8 bullish : 2 bearish in a bear market sets that as their baseline. If you notice any errors, claim @TimmerFidelity to submit corrections.
Called $BTC bullish on Jul 29, 2021: $BTC rose 29% in 5 weeks.
View call →Hover the chart to read the thesis of that period · click a day to pin it
Here’s a look at the S&P 500 index (SPX). We are back at support, and a deeper correction would find further support at the 7000 level. The GS risk appetite index is moderately oversold but has not reached those “close your eyes and buy” levels yet. Ideally, the eventual trading low will produce some bullish divergences which tend to help identify inflection points.
View original →When markets fall hard and fast enough, correlations often converge, and we can see below that this happened last week as well. Earlier last week the ex-AI basket was only 10% correlated to the S&P 500 index, but by the end of the week it was 40%. The same applies to the S&P 500 equal-weighted index (SPW) and even REITs and Bitcoin.
View original →The S&P 500 index is down 6% from its October high while AI stocks are down 30%+ from their highs. The equal-weighted S&P 500 index is down only 1.3% from its August high, and the S&P 500 ex-AI index is up 0.5%. There has been fierce rotation for months now, masking what might have seemed like a quiet trading range. History is full of episodes like this, where growing earnings take a backseat to tightening financial conditions. I suspect we will be in this mode for a while longer, not unlike 2018 or 2015. Friday’s modest recovery from Thursday’s 4% decline gave off a bit of a dead-cat vibe, which suggests to me that this rotation may not be over, even as many stocks remain in up-trends. Last week’s purge felt a bit like the tariff tantrum growth scare of 2025, but that one was easily reversed by a policy pivot. I’m not sure that there’s a quick pivot to the current correction, other than a successful ANT IPO and the potential for a re-rating in the Mag 7 if investors decide that the incumbents will win in a scaled-back capex cycle. They have been significantly derated since their cash flows started going to capex instead of shareholders.
View original →I still prefer Bitcoin over gold for the time being, and its relative price is holding up even as both assets have sold off. https://t.co/1JKztVyqjd
View original →As for gold and Bitcoin, unfortunately they have gotten more correlated to equities lately and have joined the risk-off party in recent weeks. Both assets are 60-70% correlated to the SPX right now. https://t.co/uSILeHP2ww
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