Called $BTC bullish on Jul 29, 2021: $BTC rose 29% in 5 weeks.
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Dir. of Global Macro @Fidelity. Student of history, chart maker, cyclist, cook. Helping investors break thru the clutter. Views are mine. https://t.co/9Pn7wGwMzp
accuracy score 50.3 on CL over 4 CL calls · 119 days of data · not ranked: too few calls on the asset · v20r-multi-sparsepen-strong-ss12m-20261012, computed Nov 1, 2026 · Methodology →
Cite asCryptoQuant has tracked 4 directional calls on CL by @TimmerFidelity on X since Jan 2021: scored 50.3 on CL, not yet ranked (119 days of data) (as of Nov 11, 2026).
Other assets covered (11)
4 CL calls on record, a thin history.
Relative view by default: fewer than 30 CL calls or days on record.
Sentiment timeline shows relative sentiment within this analyst's history. A perma-bull showing 8 bullish : 2 bearish in a bear market sets that as their baseline. If you notice any errors, claim @TimmerFidelity to submit corrections.
Called $BTC bullish on Jul 29, 2021: $BTC rose 29% in 5 weeks.
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Nevertheless, the AI sell-off has pulled the stocks/bonds correlation down with it. The 50-day correlation between the SPX and BBG long Treasury index is down to +9% even though the correlation between stocks and oil remains deeply negative at -43%. The result is that the correlation between oil and bonds is now negative at -7%. Perhaps the market is worried about demand destruction from rising oil prices instead of AI?
View original →Oil prices are on the move again, with the Brent forward contract making steady new highs to $92/bl. That’s inflationary and should cause yields to climb further, but for now at least this “rate scare” is starting to get offset by a “growth scare” in the form of a quick unraveling in the more speculative parts of the AI buildout. Perhaps the move lower in bond yields last week was just a temporary risk-off trade, but maybe the market has concluded that the AI boom (and possible bust) could have systemic consequences for the broader economy.
View original →Thank you, Mag 7, for keeping the index up, because otherwise the chart would look a bit different right now. With the SPX negatively correlated to oil and positively correlated to bonds, it’s easy to see why rates and oil prices are driving the bus right now. The index is only 1% below its most recent all-time high as earnings continue to boom and margins continue to rise (and credit spreads remain well-behaved). Yet less than half the stocks in the S&P 500 are trading above their 200-day moving average and only 27% are above their 50-day MA.
View original →Finally, the renewed flare-up in oil prices has taken the BCOM Spot index to new highs. But it’s not just oil. The chart below shows that 80% of the BCOMSP is in an uptrend. https://t.co/Z0ThwM5QmQ
View original →It feels good to be back home in Boston after a month away. My flight from Vancouver was predictably late, causing me to spend the night at a Toronto airport hotel instead of sleeping in my own bed. But that’s part of the road warrior life so all good, especially after another successful event at the beautiful Vancouver Convention Centre. My wife joins me this week after successfully completing her 6th Iron Man, this time the world championship 70.3 in France. She does these events with little or no training, which boggles the mind. Marketwise I didn’t miss that much while at Burning Man, but there’s lots happening now. Looking at the heat map below, we see that the market is only 2% off its highs, even though oil prices are soaring again and the 10-year yield is knocking on the 5% “red zone.” Let’s see if there’s a Bessent Put in the works. https://t.co/FA6dCnoOEM
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