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🇵🇱 Poland’s Orlen has cancelled a long term LNG contract with 🇶🇦 QatarEnergy. It’s the 1st known cancellation of a long term Qatari contract since the war began. 🔹 Volume: 1m tonnes a year, signed in 2009, due to run until 2034 🔹 Value: about €570m this year 🔹 Price: linked to oil, about 16% of Brent 🔹 Cargoes received this year: 4 2 reasons decided it. 🚢 Reliability QatarEnergy has been under force majeure since March, and its latest notice runs to the end of the year. 💶 Price Long term US LNG costs about $6–7 per MMBtu, less than half the Qatari oil linked price. Orlen keeps its 2nd Qatari contract, also 1m tonnes a year and buys from 🇺🇸 Plaquemines and Port Arthur. The timing makes it more striking. Europe started winter with gas storage at 75%, the lowest since 2013, per the IEA. 🇩🇪 Germany is at 61%. Europe is rewriting how it buys gas in the middle of a crisis. The next few months are the real test. that's exactly what I anticipated here: https://t.co/4blOCPPRHW

Today I had the privilege of speaking at “Investing in a Changing World”, hosted inside the historic Palazzo Mezzanotte at the Milan Stock Exchange and organised by Euronext. I joined a panel on geopolitics, markets and investment tools alongside Maurizio Mazziero. I connected live from Dubai, straight after my week at ADIPEC Exhibition and Conference, which gave me a lot of fresh material to bring into the conversation. We spent most of the session on what’s really moving the market right now. The situation around Hormuz. The outlook for oil and gas. What’s happening to crude and natural gas prices day by day and of course the equity story of the oil majors, tying the geopolitical picture back to the actual tools allocators and retail investors have in front of them. A huge thank you to Maurizio for the great exchange and to the entire Euronext team for the invitation. It’s always a real honour to sit down with an engaged audience and share, openly and without filters, what I see in the markets every day. Doing it from a stage like Palazzo Mezzanotte is something I’ll carry with me for a long time.

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🇶🇦 Qatar’s LNG is coming back through Hormuz. 31 laden LNG tankers left the strait in October, the most since the war began: 🔹 23 from Ras Laffan in Qatar 🔹 8 from Das Island in the 🇦🇪 UAE 🔹 Up from 23 in September Ras Laffan loaded 35 cargoes, 2.7m tonnes, its best month since the war began. In February it shipped 6.2m tonnes. So far in November, Ras Laffan has averaged 13–15 departures per 10 days, about half its pre war pace. The UAE is back to pre war transit levels. Qatar is at more than 30% of its pre-war Hormuz transits. Some cargoes are taking the long way. 2 were moved ship to ship off Sohar, 🇴🇲 Oman and then went on to 🇰🇷 South Korea and 🇵🇰 Pakistan. Good news for LNG shipowners? Partly. Qatar to Asia is a long voyage and every extra cargo keeps a ship busy for weeks. But the fleet is growing fast. About 55 new carriers were delivered in January–July, with 40–45 more due by year-end. In early October, spot rates were 83–91% below their March peaks. More Qatari cargoes flows help but still lower for the moment... be prepared. image source: bloomberg/ @SStapczynski

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🇺🇸 Venture Global’s profit is surging...now it wants to power AI too. 3rd quarter: 🔹 Revenue: $ 4.8bn, up 43% 🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: $ 2.6bn, up 69% 🔹 Cargoes exported: 124, up 24% 🔹 2026 EBITDA guidance raised to $10.0–10.3bn, from $8.7–9.1bn The war made US LNG the world’s safest gas and Venture Global sells most of its cargoes at market prices. Plaquemines Phase 1 entered commercial operation on 31 October. CP2 is due to ship its 1st LNG in mid-2027. The new part is AI. 🔹 Framework deals with GE Vernova and Baker Hughes for up to 16 gas power islands of 720MW each, about 11.5GW 🔹 Target: deliver computing capacity from late 2028, scaling to about 5GW by the end of 2031 Last week Anthropic bought 1.7GW of gas generators. This week an LNG exporter wants to build 5GW of data centres. US gas is becoming the power supply for AI.

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🇩🇪 Germany’s state owned gas giant just doubled its profit. Uniper’s adjusted net income for January to September was €579m, up from €268m, a 116% rise. 🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: €1.02bn, up 60% 🔹 Gas and LNG: €494m, against a €196m loss a year earlier 🔹 2026 outlook raised to €550–650m of adjusted net income 🔹 Net cash: €4.08bn And a new dividend policy, growing 7% a year. The proposal for 2026 is €321m, or €0.77 a share. Berlin owns 99.12% of Uniper, so about €318m of that goes back to the German state. Its storage is ready for winter: Uniper’s sites are about 81% full, against a national average of around 60%. Not everything improved. Swedish nuclear outages and weak hydropower cut green generation by 35%, and IFRS accounting still shows a €502m loss. The bailout of 2022 is turning into a cash machine. The question now is who buys it.