🇧🇷 Petrobras just pumped more oil than ever. Investors aren’t impressed. 3rd quarter, in US dollars: 🔹 Net profit: $ 7.7bn, up 21.5% 🔹 Excluding one-offs: $ 9.3bn, up 68% 🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: $ 16.7bn, up 34%, below estimates 🔹 Output: a record 3.51m boe/d, the 3rd record quarter in a row 🔹 Refineries: 99% utilised, with record diesel output of 769,000 b/d So why the disappointment? 🔹 Payouts: $ 2.7bn, against the $ 3.8bn analysts expected 🔹 Capex: the 2026 ceiling raised to $24–25.5bn, from $ 19.4bn More money goes into projects, and less comes back to shareholders. That’s the Lula question. On 25 October Lula won a 4th term, beating Flávio Bolsonaro. The next day, Petrobras lost $ 24bn of market value in dollar terms, down 15%. Investors fear 3 things: 🔸 Fuel prices held below market. The finance minister says fuel subsidies could continue into 2027 if Brent stays high. 🔸 Spending on refining, fertilisers and biofuels ahead of dividends 🔸 A weaker real, which cuts the dollar value of every payout The 1st results after the election confirm 2 of the 3. The oil is world class. The question is who gets the cash: shareholders or Brasília.

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Today on

🇵🇱 Poland’s Orlen has cancelled a long term LNG contract with 🇶🇦 QatarEnergy. It’s the 1st known cancellation of a long term Qatari contract since the war began. 🔹 Volume: 1m tonnes a year, signed in 2009, due to run until 2034 🔹 Value: about €570m this year 🔹 Price: linked to oil, about 16% of Brent 🔹 Cargoes received this year: 4 2 reasons decided it. 🚢 Reliability QatarEnergy has been under force majeure since March, and its latest notice runs to the end of the year. 💶 Price Long term US LNG costs about $6–7 per MMBtu, less than half the Qatari oil linked price. Orlen keeps its 2nd Qatari contract, also 1m tonnes a year and buys from 🇺🇸 Plaquemines and Port Arthur. The timing makes it more striking. Europe started winter with gas storage at 75%, the lowest since 2013, per the IEA. 🇩🇪 Germany is at 61%. Europe is rewriting how it buys gas in the middle of a crisis. The next few months are the real test. that's exactly what I anticipated here: https://t.co/4blOCPPRHW

Trump just poured cold water on the Hormuz deal. After meeting 🇶🇦 Qatar's prime minister, he wrote that Qatar, 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia, 🇦🇪 the UAE, 🇧🇭 Bahrain and 🇰🇼 Kuwait "would prefer the status quo". In his words, that's "a continuation of the Greatest Naval Blockade in History, and the new Operation Iron Gate. Therefore, Land and Sea." This morning the deal on the table was the reverse: 🇮🇷 Iran reopens Hormuz 🇺🇸 The US lifts the blockade and releases $ 8bn Now Trump says the Gulf wants the blockade kept, by sea and by land. He also said: 🔹 A nuclear weapon for Iran is "non-negotiable" 🔹 The US is "locked and loaded", though new action is "quite unlikely" 🔹 There's "positive momentum" toward ending the conflict Brent fell today on hopes of a deal. Peace talk with the blockade still in place isn't a reopened strait.

🛢️Brent is down to about $94. Last week it fell 16%, its steepest weekly drop since Covid began. The reason is a reported deal brokered by 🇶🇦 Qatar, now on Trump’s desk: 🔹 🇮🇷 Iran reopens Hormuz and stops attacking tankers 🔹 🇺🇸 The US lifts its blockade and releases $ 8bn of Iranian funds frozen in Qatar 🔹 Iran drops its demand to control the strait and charge transit fees 🔹 Iran’s nuclear programme stays off the table Do we believe it this time? We had a US–Iran memorandum in May. It collapsed after Iran attacked tankers in the strait. Neither government has confirmed these terms. Rubio called Iran’s demands “outrageous and ridiculous” yesterday. Ships were attacked in and near Hormuz this weekend. Physical Gulf crude is telling a different story. Murban rose 3.4% to $99.17. Futures are pricing the deal. The barrels in the Gulf are pricing the war. That’s why I sold in October. Hopes of peace have moved this market too many times this year. After the midterms, Vitol said to expect volatility. This is it.

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🇺🇸🛢️ US oil made $ 130bn in 2 quarters of the Iran war. That’s the S&P Oil & Gas E&P index, 51 companies. Q2 and Q3 2026 together, with Q3 partly estimated. 🔹 Q1 2026, before the war hit: $ 18bn 🔹 Q2: $ 64bn 🔹 Q3: $ 66bn, estimated A year ago, the same companies made about $ 22bn a quarter. Still, it isn’t a record. 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine, was bigger: $ 213bn for the year, with $ 70bn in Q2 alone. The 1st 3 quarters of 2022 brought in $ 162bn, against $ 148bn so far in 2026. The difference is where the money comes from. In 2022 it was mostly the oil price. This time refining did the heavy lifting: ExxonMobil’s refineries out-earned its oil wells for the 1st time since 2020. Brent is back below 100 since the US vote. I broke down how ExxonMobil and Chevron made $303m a day, and how much of it is the war. Link👇 https://t.co/iWYpLXJ2PQ