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Yesterday on

10 months ago, ExxonMobil’s CEO called 🇻🇪 Venezuela “uninvestable” On Monday, ExxonMobil signed a deal to look at going back. It’s a memorandum of understanding with the government and state oil company PDVSA to explore oil projects. It’s non-binding and no fields have been named. Exxon calls it “a meaningful first step”. It wants stable policies, clear rules, investor protections and competitive returns. What changed in 10 months: 🔹 January: the US captures Maduro. At a White House meeting, Woods calls Venezuela “uninvestable”, and Trump says he might keep Exxon out. 🔹 Interim President Delcy Rodríguez passes new hydrocarbon laws and opens tax and royalty rates to negotiation 🔹 August: a US-backed deal hands 17 fields to North American Blue Energy Partners 🔹 September: Chevron plans more than $ 7bn over 5 years to double its Venezuelan output to about 600,000 b/d Venezuela has been nationalising Exxon’s assets for 50 years, first in the 1970s and again in 2007. The prize is the world’s largest reserves, about 300bn barrels, with output at only about 1.2m b/d.

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Yesterday on

🛢️ The world’s 10 biggest oil companies are now worth $ 4tn. A war that shut Hormuz has made Big Oil richer than ever. 🇸🇦 aramco: $ 1.683tn 🇺🇸 ExxonMobil: $ 670bn 🇺🇸 Chevron: $ 411bn 🇬🇧 Shell: $ 281bn 🇨🇳 PetroChina: $ 243bn 🇫🇷 TotalEnergies: $ 193bn 🇺🇸 ConocoPhillips: $ 160bn 🇨🇳 CNOOC: $ 142bn 🇧🇷 Petrobras: $ 119bn 🇬🇧 bp: $ 115bn Aramco alone is 42% of the total. Its numbers are strong. It made $ 31.2bn of adjusted profit in the 3rd quarter, up 9%. Its headlines aren’t. 🔹 Drones shut its East-West pipeline, the route around Hormuz 🔹 The Houthis have hit its refineries and an oil field 🔹 Yesterday, missile debris struck its tower in Riyadh The rest of the top 10 get war-level oil prices without the Gulf risk.

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5d ago on

🇺🇸🛢️ US oil made $ 130bn in 2 quarters of the Iran war. That’s the S&P Oil & Gas E&P index, 51 companies. Q2 and Q3 2026 together, with Q3 partly estimated. 🔹 Q1 2026, before the war hit: $ 18bn 🔹 Q2: $ 64bn 🔹 Q3: $ 66bn, estimated A year ago, the same companies made about $ 22bn a quarter. Still, it isn’t a record. 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine, was bigger: $ 213bn for the year, with $ 70bn in Q2 alone. The 1st 3 quarters of 2022 brought in $ 162bn, against $ 148bn so far in 2026. The difference is where the money comes from. In 2022 it was mostly the oil price. This time refining did the heavy lifting: ExxonMobil’s refineries out-earned its oil wells for the 1st time since 2020. Brent is back below 100 since the US vote. I broke down how ExxonMobil and Chevron made $303m a day, and how much of it is the war. Link👇 https://t.co/iWYpLXJ2PQ

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6d ago on

🇺🇸 ConocoPhillips doubled its profit while pumping less. Q3 adjusted earnings were $ 3.9bn, $3.27 a share, up from $ 2.0bn a year ago and above forecasts. 🔹 Realised price $61.40 per barrel of oil equivalent, up 32% 🔹 Production 2.30m barrels a day, down 2% like for like 🔹 Free cash flow $ 4.0bn 🔹 $ 3.4bn returned to shareholders, $ 2.4bn of it in buybacks 🔹 Dividend up 11% to $0.93 a share ConocoPhillips is a pure producer. It owns no refineries, so its whole jump came from the price of oil and gas. That’s the difference with ExxonMobil and Chevron, whose extra profit came mostly from refining. It also makes ConocoPhillips the most exposed of the 3 to this week’s $22 drop in Brent. Refiners still have diesel at $6.28 a gallon to fall back on. A pure producer doesn’t. https://t.co/f4C8bvIBKU

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6d ago on

🇺🇸 US diesel stocks just fell below 100m barrels. That's the lowest since 2003. Stockpiles fell another 3.6m barrels last week, to about 99m. At this time of year the US usually holds about 114m. The timing is the worst possible. 🔹 Farmers are running harvest machinery 🔹 Heating oil season is starting in the Northeast 🔹 Diesel already costs about $6.28 a gallon, the highest ever for early November The record is $6.50, set in September. With tanks this low, it's back in reach. The cause is outside the US. Russian refineries are being hit almost every night, and Gulf fuel still can't get through Hormuz freely, so US refiners export every barrel they can spare. That's the other side of ExxonMobil and Chevron's record refining quarter as I analyzed here: https://t.co/m0HPZlGn6C