NeutralCOPConocoPhillipsConocoPhillipsWTICLWTI Crude OilWTI Crude OilCVXChevronChevronXOMExxon MobilExxon Mobil

2d ago on

🛢️ The world’s 10 biggest oil companies are now worth $ 4tn. A war that shut Hormuz has made Big Oil richer than ever. 🇸🇦 aramco: $ 1.683tn 🇺🇸 ExxonMobil: $ 670bn 🇺🇸 Chevron: $ 411bn 🇬🇧 Shell: $ 281bn 🇨🇳 PetroChina: $ 243bn 🇫🇷 TotalEnergies: $ 193bn 🇺🇸 ConocoPhillips: $ 160bn 🇨🇳 CNOOC: $ 142bn 🇧🇷 Petrobras: $ 119bn 🇬🇧 bp: $ 115bn Aramco alone is 42% of the total. Its numbers are strong. It made $ 31.2bn of adjusted profit in the 3rd quarter, up 9%. Its headlines aren’t. 🔹 Drones shut its East-West pipeline, the route around Hormuz 🔹 The Houthis have hit its refineries and an oil field 🔹 Yesterday, missile debris struck its tower in Riyadh The rest of the top 10 get war-level oil prices without the Gulf risk.

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4d ago on

🇨🇦 Canada’s oil discount has a release valve, and it starts with a CO2 pipe. Enbridge says it wants to build the CO2 pipeline for Pathways, the oil sands carbon capture project. “With the right risk package.” Here’s why it matters for oil. Pathways is Carney’s condition for federal support for a new 1m-barrel-a-day crude pipeline to the Pacific coast. No carbon capture, no new export pipe. 🔹 Pathways: about 6m tonnes of CO2 a year, a 650km pipeline to storage at Cold Lake 🔹 Backed by Canada’s 5 biggest oil sands producers: Canadian Natural, Imperial, Suncor, Cenovus and ConocoPhillips Canada 🔹 Final investment decision targeted for late 2027 A Pacific pipeline would give Canadian heavy crude a 2nd buyer besides the US. That’s what would shrink the discount US refiners are cashing in on today. Not soon, though. Enbridge’s own liquids volumes are weak, and it delayed a 250,000-barrel-a-day Mainline expansion in July for lack of producer commitments. So for now, the discount stays wide, and US refiners keep collecting it. I worked out who collects that gap in “Canadian Oil Is $28 Cheaper Than American. Who Collects The Difference?” https://t.co/IGd6kSJ6np

NeutralCOPConocoPhillipsConocoPhillipsEQTKKRGASNATGASNatural GasNatural GasSRESempraSempra

4d ago on

🇺🇸 A US utility is selling LNG to pay for Texas power. Sempra expects to close the sale of 45% of Sempra Infrastructure to a KKR led consortium this month, for $ 10bn in cash. After closing: 🔹 KKR and its partners, including CPP Investments: 65%, and control 🔹 Sempra: 25% 🔹 ADIA: 10%, its existing stake The deal values the business at $ 31.7bn including debt, $ 22.2bn for the equity. What’s in it is a big piece of North American LNG: Port Arthur LNG in Texas and ECA LNG on Mexico’s Pacific coast. Port Arthur’s Phase 2 alone adds about 13m tonnes a year, with 20-year buyers already signed including ConocoPhillips, EQT and JERA. So why sell now, in the best year for LNG in a decade? CEO Jeffrey Martin has said it plainly: “We’ve made the decision this is gonna be a pure play utility business.” The cash goes back into Sempra’s utilities in Texas and California. In Texas, demand for power is surging with new data centres and industry, and the grid needs billions of investment. That’s the trade. Sempra swaps a stake in global gas exports for growth in regulated power at home, without issuing new shares. The buyers are the other half of the story. KKR, CPP and ADIA are long-term infrastructure investors. They’re buying contracted LNG capacity that earns fees for 20 years, whatever the gas price does. Sempra still keeps 25%, so it doesn’t fully exit LNG. LNG used to be built by oil majors and utilities. Increasingly it’s owned by private infrastructure funds.

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6d ago on

🇺🇸 ConocoPhillips doubled its profit while pumping less. Q3 adjusted earnings were $ 3.9bn, $3.27 a share, up from $ 2.0bn a year ago and above forecasts. 🔹 Realised price $61.40 per barrel of oil equivalent, up 32% 🔹 Production 2.30m barrels a day, down 2% like for like 🔹 Free cash flow $ 4.0bn 🔹 $ 3.4bn returned to shareholders, $ 2.4bn of it in buybacks 🔹 Dividend up 11% to $0.93 a share ConocoPhillips is a pure producer. It owns no refineries, so its whole jump came from the price of oil and gas. That’s the difference with ExxonMobil and Chevron, whose extra profit came mostly from refining. It also makes ConocoPhillips the most exposed of the 3 to this week’s $22 drop in Brent. Refiners still have diesel at $6.28 a gallon to fall back on. A pure producer doesn’t. https://t.co/f4C8bvIBKU