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Yesterday on

More than one-third of S&P 500 stocks declined more than 20%, and many of the AI infrastructure names fell 50% or more. Tech names like $INTC down 58%. $SNDK down 62%. $NFLX topped a while ago down 45%. In just 21 days $DELL lost 47%. $MU is down 41%. You don’t need to wait for the major indexes to officially enter bear-market territory to have a bear market underway. For a large portion of individual stocks, the bear market is already here. https://t.co/JXzFFTmMtn

MUMicron TechnologyNeutralMicron Technology

9/16/2026 on

Today's Fed decision comes with the market already technically vulnerable. A relief rally would not be surprising given how much hawkishness has already been priced in, but I would not confuse an initial reaction with an all-clear. The more important evidence will be whether the 10-year can get back below 5%, breadth begins to improve, and leadership starts to broaden with a proliferation of quality setups, successful breakouts, and sustained follow-through action. Friday's Triple Witching adds another potential source of volatility, followed by MU earnings and the September 30 inflation recalculation. https://t.co/FfBnR93ojq

NeutralMUMicron TechnologyMicron TechnologyASMLWTICLWTI Crude OilWTI Crude OilINTCIntelIntelLRCXLam ResearchLam ResearchMRVLMarvellMarvellNVDANVIDIANVIDIAQQQNasdaqNasdaqSPYS&P 500S&P 500

9/14/2026 on

September is historically the market’s most difficult month, and this year we entered the period with another significant headwind: rising interest rates and oil prices. Yet the major averages held up relatively well in the face of a surge in both last week. What we may be witnessing is more of a rotational correction and consolidation beneath the surface. The S&P 500 can appear relatively healthy while a large percentage of its individual components are already experiencing corrections. The breadth statistics illustrate this divergence. As recently as mid-August, roughly 69% of S&P 500 stocks were above their 50-day moving averages. By September 11, that figure had fallen to roughly one-third of the index. On September 9 alone, 383 of the 500 S&P stocks were declining, while decliners outnumbered advancers by nearly 3-to-1 on the NYSE. That's considerable internal deterioration without a comparable collapse in the headline index. In fact, from August 18 through September 8, the S&P 500 declined only about 0.2%, even as broader measures of participation deteriorated substantially. We may already be experiencing a stealth correction—one stock and one group at a time. With September historically the weakest month of the year, we still need to respect the seasonal risk, particularly with interest rates on the rise and elevated oil prices. But if the indexes can hold together while individual stocks complete their corrections and begin rebuilding technically, the market could emerge from September in considerably better shape than the major averages alone would suggest, and the historical tendency then shifts to a strong year end rally. The key is patience; to wait for proper setups and not let the indexes pressure you into sub standard trading decisions. The real story right now may not be what the S&P 500 is doing. It's what the stocks beneath it have already done and are currenty doing. We are seeing a very sharp rotation beneath the surface today, with the selling concentrated in the areas that have been at the center of the AI infrastructure trade. The Nasdaq opened down roughly 1.2%, but the damage is considerably worse across semiconductors and AI-related hardware. MRVL, MU and INTC were down roughly 6% or more early, LRCX was hit around 8%, and NVDA fell more than 3%. The weakness is global, with ASML and major Asian semiconductor names also under significant pressure. The immediate catalyst is a weekend push from several prominent AI leaders—including Anthropic's Dario Amodei, Sam Altman and Elon Musk—calling for greater restraint in the pace of frontier AI development. Investors are extrapolating that into the possibility of a slower AI capital-spending cycle, which directly challenges the earnings narrative supporting semiconductors, memory, networking and data-center infrastructure. What's particularly interesting is that this isn't simply broad risk-off selling. Money appears to be rotating within technology itself. While chips and AI infrastructure are getting hit, cybersecurity names are showing relative strength. Bottom line: this looks like more than an ordinary down day in tech. The market is aggressively questioning one of its most crowded leadership themes while simultaneously searching for new sponsorship elsewhere. The key now is whether AI infrastructure stabilizes quickly—or whether today's action marks the beginning of a more meaningful leadership transition. https://t.co/JXzFFTmMtn

MUMicron TechnologyNeutralMicron TechnologyADMArcher-Daniels-MidlandBullishArcher-Daniels-MidlandCTVACortevaBullishCortevaDEDeereBullishDeereMOOVanEck Agribusiness ETFBullishVanEck Agribusiness ETFAMDNeutralBEBloom Energy CorporationNeutralBloom Energy CorporationCOHRCoherent Corp.NeutralCoherent Corp.CRWVCoreWeave, Inc.NeutralCoreWeave, Inc.INTCIntelNeutralIntelLITELumentum Holdings Inc.NeutralLumentum Holdings Inc.NBISNebius Group N.V.NeutralNebius Group N.V.SNDKSandisk CorporationNeutralSandisk CorporationSOXLDirexion Daily Semiconductor BuNeutralDirexion Daily Semiconductor BuVRTVertiv Holdings, LLCNeutralVertiv Holdings, LLCWULFTeraWulfNeutralTeraWulfBURLBurlington StoresBearishBurlington StoresCASYCasey's General StoresBearishCasey's General StoresHDHome DepotBearishHome DepotIWMRussell 2000BearishRussell 2000LENLennarBearishLennarLOWLowe's CompaniesBearishLowe's CompaniesMAMastercardBearishMastercardTJXTJX CompaniesBearishTJX CompaniesVVisaBearishVisa

9/9/2026 on

Prove it to me. That's how I'm approaching the market right now. I'm long a few select names and still short the $IWM. I actually added to the short this morning. But I'm holding off on aggressive commitment one way or the other until the market proves itself. I'm still long $DE. The market remains under pressure, with weakening breadth and deteriorating momentum arguing for increased caution and consideration of hedges. The calendar also carries some event risk. Today’s Treasury auction and buyback announcement are followed by PPI on September 10, CPI on September 11, the FOMC on September 16, and triple witching on September 18. With several potentially market-moving catalysts packed into a short window, this remains an environment where selectivity and risk control should take precedence over aggressive exposure. Leadership is undergoing another rotation, with semiconductors attempting to reassert themselves from oversold levels after sizable corrections. SOXX rallied into the 537/50-day resistance area. MU similarly reclaimed its 50-day area, while strength broadened across the data-center and semiconductor ecosystem, including BE, VRT, INTC, AMD, SNDK, LITE and COHR. Higher-beta participation also expanded into CRWV, NBIS and WULF. At the same time, IGV, IBB and XLV have retreated toward support rather than suffering decisive technical breakdowns, leaving open the possibility that their pullbacks are constructive rotations rather than the end of their leadership The most obvious weakness remains concentrated in Consumer, Financials and Housing. HD, LOW, LEN, TJX, CASY and BURL reflect the deterioration in consumer-related areas. Regional banks are also weakening. MA and V are threatening more significant deterioration, and housing remains particularly poor as ITB and XHB make lower lows into downside gaps. These groups currently represent some of the clearest areas to avoid. Meanwhile, agriculture and energy-related commodities are emerging. DE, CTVA, ADM and MOO provide equity-market vehicles for the agricultural theme. This is another indication of a highly rotational tape: leadership isn't disappearing altogether, but capital is moving rapidly between themes. Bottom line: The market is still producing some opportunities (mostly short term trades), but the internal picture has weakened enough to warrant respect and patience. Semiconductor/data-center names are attempting to re-emerge, while Health Care, Biotech and Software are pulling toward support and could potentially reset. At the same time, Consumer, Housing and Financials are deteriorating, while agriculture, selected energy exposures and Latin America are gaining sponsorship. With breadth weakening and several major catalysts immediately ahead, this is a market for targeted exposure rather than broad aggression—stay with relative strength, watch the semiconductor re-rotation closely, explore hedges against the weakest groups, and avoid forcing trades ahead of the coming inflation and Fed events. https://t.co/JXzFFTmMtn

MUMicron TechnologyNeutralMicron TechnologyADMArcher-Daniels-MidlandBullishArcher-Daniels-MidlandCTVACortevaBullishCortevaMOOVanEck Agribusiness ETFBullishVanEck Agribusiness ETFAMDNeutralBEBloom Energy CorporationNeutralBloom Energy CorporationCOHRCoherent Corp.NeutralCoherent Corp.CRWVCoreWeave, Inc.NeutralCoreWeave, Inc.INTCIntelNeutralIntelLITELumentum Holdings Inc.NeutralLumentum Holdings Inc.NBISNebius Group N.V.NeutralNebius Group N.V.SNDKSandisk CorporationNeutralSandisk CorporationVRTVertiv Holdings, LLCNeutralVertiv Holdings, LLCWULFTeraWulfNeutralTeraWulfBURLBurlington StoresBearishBurlington StoresCASYCasey's General StoresBearishCasey's General StoresHDHome DepotBearishHome DepotIWMRussell 2000BearishRussell 2000LENLennarBearishLennarLOWLowe's CompaniesBearishLowe's CompaniesMAMastercardBearishMastercardTJXTJX CompaniesBearishTJX CompaniesVVisaBearishVisa

9/9/2026 on

Prove it to me. That's how I'm approaching the market right now. I'm long a few select names and still short the $IWM. I actually added to the short this morning. But I'm holding off on aggressive commitment one way or the other until the market proves itself. The market remains under pressure, with weakening breadth and deteriorating momentum arguing for increased caution and consideration of hedges. The calendar also carries some event risk. Today’s Treasury auction and buyback announcement are followed by PPI on September 10, CPI on September 11, the FOMC on September 16, and triple witching on September 18. With several potentially market-moving catalysts packed into a short window, this remains an environment where selectivity and risk control should take precedence over aggressive exposure. Leadership is undergoing another rotation, with semiconductors attempting to reassert themselves from oversold levels after sizable corrections. SOXX rallied into the 537/50-day resistance area. MU similarly reclaimed its 50-day area, while strength broadened across the data-center and semiconductor ecosystem, including BE, VRT, INTC, AMD, SNDK, LITE and COHR. Higher-beta participation also expanded into CRWV, NBIS and WULF. At the same time, IGV, IBB and XLV have retreated toward support rather than suffering decisive technical breakdowns, leaving open the possibility that their pullbacks are constructive rotations rather than the end of their leadership The most obvious weakness remains concentrated in Consumer, Financials and Housing. HD, LOW, LEN, TJX, CASY and BURL reflect the deterioration in consumer-related areas. Regional banks are also weakening. MA and V are threatening more significant deterioration, and housing remains particularly poor as ITB and XHB make lower lows into downside gaps. These groups currently represent some of the clearest areas to avoid. Meanwhile, agriculture and energy-related commodities are emerging. DE, CTVA, ADM and MOO provide equity-market vehicles for the agricultural theme. This is another indication of a highly rotational tape: leadership isn't disappearing altogether, but capital is moving rapidly between themes. Bottom line: The market is still producing some opportunities (mostly short term trades), but the internal picture has weakened enough to warrant respect and patience. Semiconductor/data-center names are attempting to re-emerge, while Health Care, Biotech and Software are pulling toward support and could potentially reset. At the same time, Consumer, Housing and Financials are deteriorating, while agriculture, selected energy exposures and Latin America are gaining sponsorship. With breadth weakening and several major catalysts immediately ahead, this is a market for targeted exposure rather than broad aggression—stay with relative strength, watch the semiconductor re-rotation closely, explore hedges against the weakest groups, and avoid forcing trades ahead of the coming inflation and Fed events. https://t.co/JXzFFTmMtn