IWMRussell 2000BearishRussell 2000DEDeereBullishDeereTEVATeva Pharmaceutical IndusBullishTeva Pharmaceutical IndusTWLOTwilio Inc.BullishTwilio Inc.QQQNasdaqNeutralNasdaq

9/24/2026 on

New lows continue to outnumber new highs on both the NYSE and Nasdaq, while the NYSE advance-decline line has fallen to new lows—further evidence that participation beneath the surface remains weak. Small and mid-cap stocks continue to lag the major averages, and leadership is concentrated in a relatively narrow group of large-cap, capitalization-weighted names that appear to be benefiting from a flight to quality and perceived safety. At the same time, the macro backdrop remains challenging. The 10-year Treasury yield is holding above 5%, crude oil pulled back, but remains near $100 a barrel, and the Federal Reserve’s latest projections suggest a continued upward trajectory for rates. At the very least, investors will likely have to contend with at least one additional rate increase before year-end. Interestingly, some former high-growth stocks that underwent significant corrections are beginning to attract interest again—not necessarily because investors are embracing aggressive growth, but because lower prices have made their valuations more compelling relative to earnings and expected growth. In effect, some former momentum names are increasingly being viewed through a relative-value or PEG-ratio lens. As a result, many of these names have become extended and vulnerable to a pullback. Bottom line: this remains a highly bifurcated and selective market. The major capitalization-weighted indexes can give the appearance of broad strength even while a significant portion of the market is behaving considerably worse underneath. Until breadth improves, new highs expand, and leadership broadens beyond a concentrated group of names, I would continue to treat the strength in the headline indexes with a degree of skepticism and caution. We currently maintain a relatively light number of long positions. $TWLO, $DE, and $TEVA have held up well and continue to stand out as our strongest performers. On the defensive side, we remain short $IWM. We reduced the size of what had been an overweight short position, but continue to maintain a hedge given the ongoing weakness in small caps and the broader deterioration beneath the surface.

NeutralIWMRussell 2000Russell 2000WTICLWTI Crude OilWTI Crude OilQQQNasdaqNasdaqSPYS&P 500S&P 500

9/23/2026 on

We are seeing a market that, on the surface, appears to be moving into a Confirmed Uptrend, with several major indexes breaking out or moving to new highs. However, the underlying evidence is far less convincing. What is missing is a bona fide follow-through day—a strong advance of 1% or more on increased volume—accompanied by broad participation and a plentiful number of individual stocks breaking out and following through successfully. Without that confirmation, we view the action with a degree of suspicion. The market remains severely bifurcated. Small caps, represented by the Russell 2000 (IWM), remain near their lows, while the Dow and many economically sensitive cyclical stocks continue to lag. The real strength is concentrated in the mega-cap stocks that dominate the capitalization-weighted S&P 500 and Nasdaq, along with heavily weighted indexes such as the QQQ and FNGS. This kind of narrow leadership is more characteristic of a difficult, volatile, potentially late-stage environment than a healthy, broadly advancing market. Rising interest rates and elevated oil prices provide additional headwinds, and we are still in September, historically a challenging period for equities. Sentiment isn't providing much clarity either. Some measures are registering meaningful fear and bearishness, while others are closer to elevated levels of bullishness. In other words, the mixed picture in the indexes is also being reflected in sentiment. When the evidence is this conflicted, we drill down to what ultimately matters most: the individual stocks. If quality stocks are breaking out, following through, and rewarding us for taking risk, we participate. If they aren't, we stay defensive. Right now, the evidence at the individual-stock level is also mixed and lacking and does not provide the type of confirmation that would justify aggressive exposure. For now, we remain in a cautious, prove-it-to-me posture—taking selected opportunities where they present themselves, keeping risk tightly controlled, maintaining hedges, and allowing the market and our individual positions to earn our way into greater exposure. Become a Minervini Private Access member today and get the Minervini Markets 360 platform included. https://t.co/JXzFFTmMtn https://t.co/FfBnR93ojq https://t.co/TFyCpPHZis

IWMRussell 2000BearishRussell 2000DEDeereBullishDeereHTFLHeartFlowBullishHeartFlowMRKMerckBullishMerckTEVATeva Pharmaceutical IndusBullishTeva Pharmaceutical IndusTGTXTG TherapeuticsBullishTG TherapeuticsTWLOTwilio Inc.BullishTwilio Inc.QQQNasdaqNeutralNasdaqSPYS&P 500NeutralS&P 500

9/22/2026 on

Technology remains the clear market leader with strength concentrated in fiber optics, semiconductors, data storage, networking, hardware, machinery, and selected medical groups. Energy and Transportation have been notable laggards. At the same time, we have a market that is severely bifurcated. Applying the Cycle Composite concept across the major indexes highlights just how significant the divergences have become. The Nasdaq Composite has deviated considerably from its historical seasonal pattern, while the Dow has tracked its composite more closely. The Russell 2000, meanwhile, has been in a relatively steady downtrend over the past five weeks. The more important message is what is occurring beneath the surface. The average stock has experienced seasonal weakness much closer to the Cycle Composite pattern than the capitalization-weighted S&P 500. RSP, MDY, and IWM remain 5%–7% below their highs, while only 37% of stocks are above their 30-week moving averages, down sharply from 63% in August. This type of narrowing participation and divergence can occur around market tops, although it does not necessarily mean a top is in place. The question is: are we experiencing a stealth correction that is near the end, or a more serious warning. Until breadth and participation improve, we remain patient and highly selective, concentrating on quality stocks displaying strong relative strength and holding key support levels. We continue to hold a small list of longs that have held stops and performed well. Names include: $TWLO, $DE, $MRK, $TEVA, $TGTX, $HTFL - this morning we reduced our $IWM short/hedge and took off our overweight. https://t.co/JXzFFTmMtn https://t.co/FfBnR93ojq https://t.co/TFyCpPHZis

IWMRussell 2000BearishRussell 2000CAHCardinal HealthBullishCardinal HealthDEDeereBullishDeereETEnergy TransferBullishEnergy TransferTEVATeva Pharmaceutical IndusBullishTeva Pharmaceutical Indus

9/15/2026 on

I only have four longs with only two of them performing well- $DE and $TEVA. The other two $ET and $CAH - are slightly profitable on balance still holding above my stops. My $IWM is a hedge. Light residual long exposure; waiting patiently while market is under pressure.

IWMRussell 2000NeutralRussell 2000CAHCardinal HealthBullishCardinal HealthDEDeereBullishDeereETEnergy TransferBullishEnergy TransferTEVATeva Pharmaceutical IndusBullishTeva Pharmaceutical Indus

9/15/2026 on

I only have four longs with only two of them performing well- $DE and $TEVA. The other two $ET and $CAH - are slightly profitable on balance still holding above my stops. My $IWM is a hedge. Light residue long exposure; waiting patiently while market is under pressure.