WTICLWTI Crude OilNeutralWTI Crude OilSPYS&P 500BullishS&P 500

3w ago on

Q4 and post-midterm seasonality remain overwhelmingly bullish. Historically, the fourth quarter has been the strongest quarter of the year for the S&P 500 in terms of consistency of positive returns. Over roughly the past 80 years, Q4 has produced a positive return about 80% of the time, compared with approximately 60%–64% for the other three quarters. The midterm election cycle adds another powerful seasonal tailwind. Stocks have historically performed particularly well as the uncertainty surrounding midterm elections is removed. Depending on the precise starting period used, recent historical studies put the S&P 500's positive rate during Q4 of midterm years at roughly 83%–85%. Given the backdrop of strong earnings growth and, at least for now, no clear evidence of recession, history argues that the bulls should continue to receive the benefit of the doubt. However, seasonality is a tendency—not a guarantee. Fed tightening, deteriorating breadth, rising interest rates and elevated oil prices represent meaningful counterweights. At a minimum, those conditions increase the probability of volatility and make the current environment considerably less straightforward than the historical averages suggest. Individual stocks have already been correcting beneath the surface of the major indexes. More than 35% of S&P 500 stocks are currently down 20% or more from their 52-week highs, even as the index itself remains relatively close to record territory. In other words, a significant correction has already occurred—it has simply been masked by the strength of a relatively small number of heavily weighted stocks. Interestingly, the 87 Crash is one of the historical analogs worth keeping in mind following a Fed tightening. The comparison should not be interpreted as a prediction of another crash, but the monetary-policy parallel is real: the Fed raised the discount rate from 5.5% to 6.0% on September 4, 1987, while market interest rates were already rising sharply. The seasonal winds are clearly at the market's back. The question is whether tightening financial conditions, weak participation and rising oil become strong enough headwinds to overpower them. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked 125 basis points in just seven months. We looked at prior cases when the 10-year Treasury yield jumped more than 125 basis points in seven months and found 13 prior cases. Only seven of the 13 cases (54%) had positive returns three months later. https://t.co/JXzFFTmMtn

NeutralWTICLWTI Crude OilWTI Crude OilIWMRussell 2000Russell 2000QQQNasdaqNasdaqSPYS&P 500S&P 500

9/23/2026 on

We are seeing a market that, on the surface, appears to be moving into a Confirmed Uptrend, with several major indexes breaking out or moving to new highs. However, the underlying evidence is far less convincing. What is missing is a bona fide follow-through day—a strong advance of 1% or more on increased volume—accompanied by broad participation and a plentiful number of individual stocks breaking out and following through successfully. Without that confirmation, we view the action with a degree of suspicion. The market remains severely bifurcated. Small caps, represented by the Russell 2000 (IWM), remain near their lows, while the Dow and many economically sensitive cyclical stocks continue to lag. The real strength is concentrated in the mega-cap stocks that dominate the capitalization-weighted S&P 500 and Nasdaq, along with heavily weighted indexes such as the QQQ and FNGS. This kind of narrow leadership is more characteristic of a difficult, volatile, potentially late-stage environment than a healthy, broadly advancing market. Rising interest rates and elevated oil prices provide additional headwinds, and we are still in September, historically a challenging period for equities. Sentiment isn't providing much clarity either. Some measures are registering meaningful fear and bearishness, while others are closer to elevated levels of bullishness. In other words, the mixed picture in the indexes is also being reflected in sentiment. When the evidence is this conflicted, we drill down to what ultimately matters most: the individual stocks. If quality stocks are breaking out, following through, and rewarding us for taking risk, we participate. If they aren't, we stay defensive. Right now, the evidence at the individual-stock level is also mixed and lacking and does not provide the type of confirmation that would justify aggressive exposure. For now, we remain in a cautious, prove-it-to-me posture—taking selected opportunities where they present themselves, keeping risk tightly controlled, maintaining hedges, and allowing the market and our individual positions to earn our way into greater exposure. Become a Minervini Private Access member today and get the Minervini Markets 360 platform included. https://t.co/JXzFFTmMtn https://t.co/FfBnR93ojq https://t.co/TFyCpPHZis

NeutralWTICLWTI Crude OilWTI Crude OilASMLINTCIntelIntelLRCXLam ResearchLam ResearchMRVLMarvellMarvellMUMicron TechnologyMicron TechnologyNVDANVIDIANVIDIAQQQNasdaqNasdaqSPYS&P 500S&P 500

9/14/2026 on

September is historically the market’s most difficult month, and this year we entered the period with another significant headwind: rising interest rates and oil prices. Yet the major averages held up relatively well in the face of a surge in both last week. What we may be witnessing is more of a rotational correction and consolidation beneath the surface. The S&P 500 can appear relatively healthy while a large percentage of its individual components are already experiencing corrections. The breadth statistics illustrate this divergence. As recently as mid-August, roughly 69% of S&P 500 stocks were above their 50-day moving averages. By September 11, that figure had fallen to roughly one-third of the index. On September 9 alone, 383 of the 500 S&P stocks were declining, while decliners outnumbered advancers by nearly 3-to-1 on the NYSE. That's considerable internal deterioration without a comparable collapse in the headline index. In fact, from August 18 through September 8, the S&P 500 declined only about 0.2%, even as broader measures of participation deteriorated substantially. We may already be experiencing a stealth correction—one stock and one group at a time. With September historically the weakest month of the year, we still need to respect the seasonal risk, particularly with interest rates on the rise and elevated oil prices. But if the indexes can hold together while individual stocks complete their corrections and begin rebuilding technically, the market could emerge from September in considerably better shape than the major averages alone would suggest, and the historical tendency then shifts to a strong year end rally. The key is patience; to wait for proper setups and not let the indexes pressure you into sub standard trading decisions. The real story right now may not be what the S&P 500 is doing. It's what the stocks beneath it have already done and are currenty doing. We are seeing a very sharp rotation beneath the surface today, with the selling concentrated in the areas that have been at the center of the AI infrastructure trade. The Nasdaq opened down roughly 1.2%, but the damage is considerably worse across semiconductors and AI-related hardware. MRVL, MU and INTC were down roughly 6% or more early, LRCX was hit around 8%, and NVDA fell more than 3%. The weakness is global, with ASML and major Asian semiconductor names also under significant pressure. The immediate catalyst is a weekend push from several prominent AI leaders—including Anthropic's Dario Amodei, Sam Altman and Elon Musk—calling for greater restraint in the pace of frontier AI development. Investors are extrapolating that into the possibility of a slower AI capital-spending cycle, which directly challenges the earnings narrative supporting semiconductors, memory, networking and data-center infrastructure. What's particularly interesting is that this isn't simply broad risk-off selling. Money appears to be rotating within technology itself. While chips and AI infrastructure are getting hit, cybersecurity names are showing relative strength. Bottom line: this looks like more than an ordinary down day in tech. The market is aggressively questioning one of its most crowded leadership themes while simultaneously searching for new sponsorship elsewhere. The key now is whether AI infrastructure stabilizes quickly—or whether today's action marks the beginning of a more meaningful leadership transition. https://t.co/JXzFFTmMtn

WTICLWTI Crude OilNeutralWTI Crude OilDEDeereBullishDeereFTITechnipFMCBullishTechnipFMCIWMRussell 2000BearishRussell 2000

9/1/2026 on

As I noted in my weekend report, the 10-year Treasury yield would likely breakout, creating a headwind for equities. Today that is starting to become a reality. Compounding the issue is a rise in oil prices. Yesterday morning we shorted $IWM while adding $DE and $FTI on the long side. https://t.co/JXzFFTmMtn