Called $ETH bearish on Aug 24, 2025 — $ETH fell 66% over the next 10 months.
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Founder & CEO, ITC | Macro, commodities & digital assets | Liquidity, labor & risk cycles | PhD Engineering | Former NASA, Sandia National Labs
accuracy score 65.7 on BTC over 1,224 BTC calls · 2,108 days of data · rank 25 of 120 BTC analysts (top 20.8% of the pool) · top 1.67% of an estimated 1,500 BTC analysts worldwide · v20r-multi-phasecov-sparsepen-strong-20261009, computed Oct 10, 2026 · Methodology →
Cite asCryptoQuant has tracked 1,224 directional calls on BTC by @benjamincowen on X since Jan 2021: ranked #25 of 120 analysts scored on BTC by accuracy — in the Top 5% of an estimated 1,500 BTC analysts worldwide (as of Oct 10, 2026).
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Relative view by default — Benjamin Cowen’s calls are mostly nuanced, so each day is read against their usual tone.
Sentiment timeline shows relative sentiment within this analyst's history. A perma-bull showing 8 bullish : 2 bearish in a bear market sets that as their baseline. If you notice any errors, claim @benjamincowen to submit corrections.
Called $ETH bearish on Aug 24, 2025 — $ETH fell 66% over the next 10 months.
View call →Hover the chart to read the thesis of that period · click a day to pin it
I think "acceptance" more so refers to multiple weekly closes. Daily closes below $83k are not really a sign yet the the bears are taking control. Arguably, the burden of proof is still on the bears and not the bulls. https://t.co/sGgj4h2c2I
View original →Yields are likely in the topping process. In prior midterm years, Gold tends to bottom around the time that yields top, while Bitcoin tends to bottom around the time that yields bottom.
View original →If Bitcoin accepts back below the range, then Q4 2026 could shape up to be what it historically has been. The markets always have a way of convincing us that "this time is different." https://t.co/IecW3QtvSu https://t.co/wlplCS22Du
View original →Bitcoin Days since 30% Drop https://t.co/TbPScrVanr
View original →Bitcoin running 1 year ROI https://t.co/JzrxxmU9WD
View original →"Bond traders partly fear the Fed will tighten too little, which is pushing yields higher; he expects fear to peak around the October 28 meeting."
"Cowen says the Fed can justify holding off by citing soft inflation and a soft labor market, but a bad inflation report could still trigger one last bond selloff; if the two-year yield then falls, the Fed may not need to hike as much."
"Cowen said history supports his timing, as the 10-year yield topped between early October and mid-November in 2018 and 2022, the last two midterm election years, though he concedes the pattern is not exact."
"Cowen expects the 10-year Treasury yield to peak before mid-November, after it touched 5.342% on October 1."
"I'd rather just kind of sit back and say, 'All right, like I'm wrong.'"
"Well the bond market has revolted, and until the Fed gets a proper handle on inflation, this will likely continue."
"Yields have gone up rapidly since the market became concerned that the Fed was no longer taking inflation seriously."
"As long as Bitcoin can kind of hold above $83,000, then it's hard to be deterministically bearish."
"Cowen expected Bitcoin to rally during the summer before weakening into Q4, in line with the traditional four-year cycle."
"burden of proof has shifted"
