Called $ETH bearish on Aug 24, 2025 — $ETH fell 66% over the next 10 months.
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Founder & CEO, ITC | Macro, commodities & digital assets | Liquidity, labor & risk cycles | PhD Engineering | Former NASA, Sandia National Labs
Cite asCryptoQuant has tracked the directional calls on SPY by @benjamincowen on X since Jan 2021: not yet scored on SPY (as of Oct 10, 2026).
Other assets covered (14)
Relative view by default — fewer than 30 SPY calls or days on record.
Sentiment timeline shows relative sentiment within this analyst's history. A perma-bull showing 8 bullish : 2 bearish in a bear market sets that as their baseline. If you notice any errors, claim @benjamincowen to submit corrections.
Called $ETH bearish on Aug 24, 2025 — $ETH fell 66% over the next 10 months.
View call →Hover the chart to read the thesis of that period · click a day to pin it
During Trump's 1st term, SPX weakness started right about now. Stocks have been extremely resillient despite rising yields/energy/DXY Let's see if the resillience holds during the seasonal window of weakness https://t.co/eIsgS2bgdB
View original →"Bond traders partly fear the Fed will tighten too little, which is pushing yields higher; he expects fear to peak around the October 28 meeting."
"Cowen says the Fed can justify holding off by citing soft inflation and a soft labor market, but a bad inflation report could still trigger one last bond selloff; if the two-year yield then falls, the Fed may not need to hike as much."
"Cowen said history supports his timing, as the 10-year yield topped between early October and mid-November in 2018 and 2022, the last two midterm election years, though he concedes the pattern is not exact."
"Cowen expects the 10-year Treasury yield to peak before mid-November, after it touched 5.342% on October 1."
"I'd rather just kind of sit back and say, 'All right, like I'm wrong.'"
"Well the bond market has revolted, and until the Fed gets a proper handle on inflation, this will likely continue."
"Yields have gone up rapidly since the market became concerned that the Fed was no longer taking inflation seriously."
"As long as Bitcoin can kind of hold above $83,000, then it's hard to be deterministically bearish."
"Cowen expected Bitcoin to rally during the summer before weakening into Q4, in line with the traditional four-year cycle."
"burden of proof has shifted"
