Called $CL bearish on May 21, 2026: $CL fell 29% over the next 6 weeks.
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Former HFM | Institutional-grade quant research for individual investors | Not Financial Advice | https://t.co/7AGyvCDsb5 | Email: research@alphatica.io
Cite asCryptoQuant has tracked the directional calls on IWM by @alphaticaio on X since Jan 2026: not yet scored on IWM (as of Nov 11, 2026).
Other assets covered (36)
4 IWM calls on record, a thin history.
Relative view by default: fewer than 30 IWM calls or days on record.
Sentiment timeline shows relative sentiment within this analyst's history. A perma-bull showing 8 bullish : 2 bearish in a bear market sets that as their baseline. If you notice any errors, claim @alphaticaio to submit corrections.
Called $CL bearish on May 21, 2026: $CL fell 29% over the next 6 weeks.
View call →Hover the chart to read the thesis of that period · click a day to pin it
SIX STRAIGHT DAYS S&P 500 dispersion, week of Nov 2: Nov 2: 98th pct Nov 3: 91st pct Nov 4: 99.6th pct Nov 5: 99.1st pct Nov 6: 93rd pct Every day above the 75th percentile. Three EXTREME. The week averaged the 98th percentile. Nov 5 was the break. SPY fell 4.41%. QQQ fell 6.49%. NVDA fell 9.3%. AVGO fell 10.4%. What changed on Nov 5: it wasn't only the top of the index anymore. IWM fell 4.6%. The equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) fell 2.9%. For four weeks the selling was concentrated in the largest names while the rest of the market held up. On Nov 5 it spread. The damage since early October: QQQ: -13.6% from its Oct 6 close NVDA: -22.0% AVGO: -21.9% SPY: -5.6% And the gap that has defined this month is still there. Since Oct 9, SPY is down 5.6%. RSP is up 1.4%. What the data says from here. EXTREME dispersion, 23 years: SPY avg 20d: +1.08% · avg 60d: +3.97% QQQ avg 60d: +8.50% That average hides the part that matters most. When we split EXTREME days by how long the elevated stretch lasted, isolated spikes resolved strongly higher. Stretches that ran 30+ days, GFC and COVID, did the opposite. We're 6 straight elevated sessions in. Short streaks like this have usually ended within a week or two. Whether this one fades or keeps extending is the signal to watch.
View original →SPX is down ~4%. Our correlation scanner moved from green to yellow. It has not hit orange. Early warning composite: 4.0 / 10. Herding detected. Average pairwise correlation: 0.436 over the last 100 minutes. Yellow starts at 0.40. Z-score peaked at +2.11 at 12:15. It's +1.17 now and falling. SPY-TLT: -0.168. Bonds are still hedging stocks. Acceleration: -0.021. Correlation is cooling, not speeding up. What changed from Oct 30: the selling spread. Then it was semis and mega-cap tech. Today small caps, industrials and healthcare joined them. SPY-XLV went from +0.20 to +0.74. What didn't break: credit. HYG-SPY dropped from +0.63 to +0.35. High yield isn't following stocks down. Semis still lead the factor. MU, AVGO, AMD and SMH carry the top loadings. A liquidation needs bonds to stop hedging and credit to follow. Neither has happened yet. Intraday 5-minute read through 1:50PM. Daily rerun at the close. SPY QQQ VIX
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