Called $CL bearish on May 21, 2026: $CL fell 29% over the next 6 weeks.
View call →
Former HFM | Institutional-grade quant research for individual investors | Not Financial Advice | https://t.co/7AGyvCDsb5 | Email: research@alphatica.io
Cite asCryptoQuant has tracked the directional calls on SPY by @alphaticaio on X since Jan 2026: not yet scored on SPY (as of Nov 11, 2026).
Other assets covered (36)
Relative view by default: Alphatica leans one way on 89% of days, so a softer or opposite tone stands out against their usual stance.
Sentiment timeline shows relative sentiment within this analyst's history. A perma-bull showing 8 bullish : 2 bearish in a bear market sets that as their baseline. If you notice any errors, claim @alphaticaio to submit corrections.
Called $CL bearish on May 21, 2026: $CL fell 29% over the next 6 weeks.
View call →Hover the chart to read the thesis of that period · click a day to pin it
The trap is getting wider. From Thursday's (11/5) regular-session low to today's close: ETF Thursday low Close 11/10 Gain Return SPY 732.71 749.92 +17.21 +2.35% QQQ 647.12 674.76 +27.64 +4.27% https://t.co/4JK1r7jSGJ
View original →CPI came in hot. Headline +0.4% (exp +0.3%). Core +0.3% (exp +0.2%). How SPY traded vs our 273-release study: The open called it. SPY gapped −0.63% and closed −0.37%. Same direction, as it is 75% of the time. The sell-off arrived. SPY hit −1.04% at 12:40, right at the −0.96% average for a hot CPI day, then bounced into the close. SPY closed red on CPI day, so the 20-day signal fired. Historically SPY has been higher 20 days later 67% of the time, +1.00% on average (p = 0.015). The clock starts at today's close, 749.92. Day 20 is December 9. We will post the results.
View original →SPY OPEN | Tuesday November 10 | CPI Hot $746.53. Down 0.82%. MONDAY: Opened $741.95. Closed $752.69. A $10 rebuild off the open. CPI just took more than half of it back. FRI 2:51PM → TUE 10:53AM: Price: $737.64 → $746.53 Composite: -47.2 → -51.7 (strong bearish) Options surface: -$2.10B → -$1.42B Engine: -58M → -6M Net premium: -$329M → +$264M Premium: 43% calls → 60% calls ATM IV: 19.5/20.6 → 17.7/18.3 The surface repaired $680M. Money came back to calls. The composite still got worse. WHERE PRICE IS SITTING: Still negative gamma. Nothing positive above $20M until $770. Above: $751, max pain $753 (+$7M), but +$27M is today's. Friday puts underneath: -$14M. $770 (+$29M) $775 (+$52M), the first real magnet Below: $745 (-$123M), $1.53 under price $740 (-$139M) $735 (-$136M) $730 (-$150M), the biggest strike on the board $720 to $752: -$1.41B of negative gamma. $753 to $790: about $400M positive. THE NUMBER THAT CHANGED: Implied: 18.3%. About $8.60 a day. Realized: 18.9%. About $8.90 a day. Last Monday options priced almost twice what SPY was moving. Now SPY is moving more than options price. Calls opening 3.9 to 1. Puts opening 2.9 to 1. $751 is max pain. $746.53 is price. $745 is the trapdoor. Less damage than Friday. Not a floor. A hot print into a negative gamma board means every move gets bigger.
View original →The longer price holds 7,500, the more today looks like a possible retest of Monday’s breakout rather than a reversal. Those that bought 0DTE and 1DTE PUTS (yesterday) expecting SPX 7400/7450 are now underwater. I guess we call this the Circle of Life?
View original →SPX GEX Levels: Tuesday, November 10 (CPI) SPX closed Monday at 7,549.94, up 173 points (+2.35%). That was just above our 7,330–7,535 range. The gap-up held, ran to about 7,575 into the afternoon, and settled right on the 7,550 strike that carried Monday's heaviest call volume. QQQ closed up 3.5%, its second straight higher close and more than 2% off Thursday's low. That's the bounce confirmation we laid out last week. The positioning followed. Net gamma improved from -$1.17B on Friday to -$487M. ATM IV fell from 22.6% to 16.9%. Spot now sits right at the flip: 7,550: -$26M (spot) Flip zone: 7,555–7,605 7,600: -$34M (top call-volume strike Monday) Above the zone, positive gamma is back within reach: 7,625: +$20M 7,700: +$47M 7,800: +$47M Below, the heavy strikes are still there: 7,525: -$65M 7,500: -$146M (heaviest on the board, top put-volume strike Monday) 7,450: -$76M 7,400: -$95M Monday's volume put/call rose to 1.51 by the close. Traders bought the rally and hedged it into CPI. Clear 7,605 and dealers start absorbing, with 7,700 the magnet. Lose 7,500 and negative gamma takes over again, with 7,400 next. Predicted range: 7,470–7,640.
View original →
