Called $CL bearish on May 21, 2026: $CL fell 29% over the next 6 weeks.
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Former HFM | Institutional-grade quant research for individual investors | Not Financial Advice | https://t.co/7AGyvCDsb5 | Email: research@alphatica.io
Cite asCryptoQuant has tracked the directional calls on QQQ by @alphaticaio on X since Jan 2026: not yet scored on QQQ (as of Nov 11, 2026).
Other assets covered (36)
Relative view by default: fewer than 30 QQQ calls or days on record.
Sentiment timeline shows relative sentiment within this analyst's history. A perma-bull showing 8 bullish : 2 bearish in a bear market sets that as their baseline. If you notice any errors, claim @alphaticaio to submit corrections.
Called $CL bearish on May 21, 2026: $CL fell 29% over the next 6 weeks.
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The trap is getting wider. From Thursday's (11/5) regular-session low to today's close: ETF Thursday low Close 11/10 Gain Return SPY 732.71 749.92 +17.21 +2.35% QQQ 647.12 674.76 +27.64 +4.27% https://t.co/4JK1r7jSGJ
View original →SPX GEX Levels: Tuesday, November 10 (CPI) SPX closed Monday at 7,549.94, up 173 points (+2.35%). That was just above our 7,330–7,535 range. The gap-up held, ran to about 7,575 into the afternoon, and settled right on the 7,550 strike that carried Monday's heaviest call volume. QQQ closed up 3.5%, its second straight higher close and more than 2% off Thursday's low. That's the bounce confirmation we laid out last week. The positioning followed. Net gamma improved from -$1.17B on Friday to -$487M. ATM IV fell from 22.6% to 16.9%. Spot now sits right at the flip: 7,550: -$26M (spot) Flip zone: 7,555–7,605 7,600: -$34M (top call-volume strike Monday) Above the zone, positive gamma is back within reach: 7,625: +$20M 7,700: +$47M 7,800: +$47M Below, the heavy strikes are still there: 7,525: -$65M 7,500: -$146M (heaviest on the board, top put-volume strike Monday) 7,450: -$76M 7,400: -$95M Monday's volume put/call rose to 1.51 by the close. Traders bought the rally and hedged it into CPI. Clear 7,605 and dealers start absorbing, with 7,700 the magnet. Lose 7,500 and negative gamma takes over again, with 7,400 next. Predicted range: 7,470–7,640.
View original →SIX STRAIGHT DAYS S&P 500 dispersion, week of Nov 2: Nov 2: 98th pct Nov 3: 91st pct Nov 4: 99.6th pct Nov 5: 99.1st pct Nov 6: 93rd pct Every day above the 75th percentile. Three EXTREME. The week averaged the 98th percentile. Nov 5 was the break. SPY fell 4.41%. QQQ fell 6.49%. NVDA fell 9.3%. AVGO fell 10.4%. What changed on Nov 5: it wasn't only the top of the index anymore. IWM fell 4.6%. The equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) fell 2.9%. For four weeks the selling was concentrated in the largest names while the rest of the market held up. On Nov 5 it spread. The damage since early October: QQQ: -13.6% from its Oct 6 close NVDA: -22.0% AVGO: -21.9% SPY: -5.6% And the gap that has defined this month is still there. Since Oct 9, SPY is down 5.6%. RSP is up 1.4%. What the data says from here. EXTREME dispersion, 23 years: SPY avg 20d: +1.08% · avg 60d: +3.97% QQQ avg 60d: +8.50% That average hides the part that matters most. When we split EXTREME days by how long the elevated stretch lasted, isolated spikes resolved strongly higher. Stretches that ran 30+ days, GFC and COVID, did the opposite. We're 6 straight elevated sessions in. Short streaks like this have usually ended within a week or two. Whether this one fades or keeps extending is the signal to watch.
View original →🚨 FINTWIT NEEDS A QUICK MARKET HISTORY LESSON. Not every selloff is a correction. The traditional definitions: 5% to 10% decline: pullback 10% to 20% decline: correction 20% or more: bear market From their all-time closing highs: RSP: -3.26% SPY: -5.62% QQQ: -13.63% QQQ is in a correction. SPY is in a pullback. The equal-weight S&P 500 has not even fallen 5%. If you are talking about technology, call it a correction. If you are talking about the broad market, call it what it is: A pullback concentrated in mega-cap technology. Words have definitions.
View original →🚨 WE ARE MAKING THE CALL: THE MARKET HAS ENTERED A TACTICAL BOTTOMING WINDOW. This is not based on one oversold indicator. It is the convergence of momentum, volume, breadth and intraday liquidation. 1. Momentum collapsed The Russell 3000 value-weighted momentum factor fell 21.1% in five sessions, its second-worst five-day crash in our sample going back to 2023. The market's previous winners lost 36.2% over 21 sessions. This was not an ordinary pullback. It was a crowded trade being forcibly unwound. The most crowded stocks were carrying extreme risk The prior winners entered the selloff with a beta of 4.1. The loser portfolio had a beta of just 1.0. When deleveraging started, the stocks that had performed best were positioned to fall more than four times as fast as the market. 🚨🚨That is exactly what happened. 2. Intraday selling reached statistical extremes SPY registered two hourly candles beyond four standard deviations. Its opening-hour return was 5.95 standard deviations below normal. QQQ produced three flush hours, with its most extreme reaching 5.27 standard deviations. QQQ's 10:00 AM volume reached 30.6 million shares, the heaviest comparable hourly volume of the past 120 sessions. 3. Breadth reached capitulation levels Only 12.3% of the Russell 3000 advanced. Dollar volume ran 3.4 standard deviations above its recent average. SPY and QQQ both closed in the bottom 2% of their daily ranges. Sellers controlled the session from beginning to end. 4. The damage was concentrated, not systemic Only 7.7% of Russell 3000 stocks reached 52-week lows. At the April 2025 market low, that figure reached 36.8%. This was a violent liquidation of crowded leadership than a collapse across the entire market. 5. Historical flushes produced positive forward returns Excluding the COVID crash, SPY averaged: 10 sessions: +1.64% 20 sessions: +2.24% QQQ averaged: 10 sessions: +2.39% 20 sessions: +2.63% Those returns beat ordinary trading days, although they did not consistently outperform other large down days. Part of the effect is mean reversion after severe selling. That distinction matters. What we are calling We are not claiming today's exact price must hold. In the closest historical profiles, only 20% of SPY lows and 40% of QQQ lows avoided another lower close during the following 10 sessions. A retest or marginal undercut remains possible. Our call is that the liquidation phase has reached an extreme, the forward-return asymmetry has improved and the market has entered a bottoming process. This is a tactical bottoming call, not a guarantee of a V-shaped recovery. Risk marker A daily close below SPY's $732.71 low would invalidate the claim that today marked the exact bottom. The broader bottoming thesis would require a sustained break below that level, accompanied by expanding new lows and further deterioration in market breadth. The low is now defined. The market has to defend it.
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