NeutralSHOPShopifyShopifyAPPAppLovinAppLovinAXONAxon EnterpriseAxon EnterpriseCRWDCrowdStrikeCrowdStrikeDDOGDatadogDatadogDOCNDigitalOcean HoldingsDigitalOcean HoldingsFIGFigmaFigmaGOOGAlphabetAlphabetGOOGLAlphabetAlphabetIOTSamsaraSamsaraNETCloudflareCloudflareORCLOracleOraclePANWPalo Alto NetworksPalo Alto NetworksPLTRPalantirPalantirSNOWSnowflakeSnowflakeZETAZeta Global HoldingsZeta Global Holdings

3d ago on

Fastest-Growing SaaS and Software Companies by Analyst-Estimated NTM Revenue Growth $PLTR Palantir: +62.3% $DOCN DigitalOcean: +53.8% $ORCL Oracle: +37.6% $SNOW Snowflake: +32.0% $AXON Axon: +31.4% $SHOP Shopify: +27.7% $GOOGL Alphabet: +27.3% $NET Cloudflare: +26.7% $APP AppLovin: +25.9% $ZETA Zeta Global: +24.5% $PANW Palo Alto: +23.4% $CRWD CrowdStrike: +23.3% $FIG Figma: +23.1% $DDOG Datadog: +22.0% $IOT Samsara: +20.9%

SHOPShopifyBullishShopify

1w ago on

My Thoughts on $SHOP Shopify Q3'26: Revenue Growth Accelerates to 31.6% and AI Commerce Gains Momentum, but Why Did Shares Fall 16%? Despite missing revenue estimates, I believe Shopify delivered a strong quarter. However, shares declined 16.2% following earnings. Revenue grew 31.6% YoY, missing analysts' expectations by just 0.1%. Q4 guidance was in line with expectations. If Shopify beats its guidance by a margin similar to the median beat over the past four quarters, revenue growth could accelerate to 36.4% YoY. I remain optimistic about agentic commerce, which could become an important growth driver. AI-referred traffic increased 2.6x YoY, while AI-driven orders grew 3.3x, demonstrating accelerating adoption. Merchant Solutions revenue grew 35.5% YoY, outpacing Subscription Solutions growth of 19.6%. The growing Merchant Solutions contribution pressures consolidated gross margin due to its lower profitability. However, gross margin remained stable QoQ. Subscription Solutions gross margin reached 79.1%, compared with approximately 38% for Merchant Solutions. I believe Merchant Solutions strengthens Shopify's competitive position through network effects and higher switching costs. Importantly, Merchant Solutions growth exceeded GMV growth of 29.5%, indicating improving monetization. Shop Pay GMV increased 50% YoY, supported by more buyers and purchases per buyer. Sidekick AI adoption is accelerating. Daily active merchants increased 3.7x YoY, while daily sessions grew 4.2x. Despite rising AI usage, cost per conversation declined 28%, total Sidekick costs fell 18%, and merchant conversations increased 14% QoQ. Operating margin reached 19.2%, while FCF margin improved to 21.8%. Basic shares outstanding also declined 1.0% YoY, supported by repurchases.

SHOPShopifyNeutralShopify

1w ago on

Shopify $SHOP Q3'26 Results: ↘️$3,742.0M rev (+31.6% YoY, +4.4% QoQ) missed est by -0.1%🔴 ↘️GM* (47.6%, -1.3 PPs YoY)🟡 ➡️Operating Margin* (19.2%, +2.8 PPs YoY) ➡️FCF Margin (21.8%, +4.0 PPs YoY)🟢 ↗️Net Margin (12.3%, +3.1 PPs YoY) ↗️EPS* $0.49 beat est by 6.5% *non-GAAP Segment Revenue ➡️Subscription solutions $836M rev (+19.6% YoY, 79.1% Gross Margin)🟡 ↗️Merchant solutions $2,906M rev (+35.5% YoY, 38.5% Gross Margin) Key Metrics ➡️GMV $119.15B (+29.5% YoY)🟡 ➡️GPV $81.02B (+31.4% YoY, 68.0% of GMV)🟡 ➡️MRR 230B (+19.2% YoY)🟡 Operating expenses ↘️S&M*/Revenue 12.1% (-1.9 PPs YoY) ↗️R&D*/Revenue 10.5% (+0.1 PPs YoY) ↘️G&A*/Revenue 2.7% (-0.5 PPs YoY) Dilution ↗️SBC/rev 4%, +0.2 PPs QoQ ↘️Basic shares down -1.0% YoY, -0.8 PPs QoQ🟢 ↘️Diluted shares down -1.7% YoY, -0.8 PPs QoQ🟢 Guidance ➡️Q4'26 $4,750.0 - $4,950.0M guide (+32.1% YoY) in line with est 🟢 Pros Revenue grew 31.6% YoY to $3.74B. Merchant Solutions revenue surged 35.5% YoY. Operating margin expanded 2.8 PPs to 19.2%. FCF margin rose 4.0 PPs to 21.8%. AI-driven orders increased 3.3x YoY. Diluted shares declined 1.7% YoY. 🔴 Cons Revenue missed estimates by 0.1%. Gross margin contracted 1.3 PPs to 47.6%. Subscription revenue growth lagged at 19.6%. MRR growth slowed to 19.2% YoY. European GMV growth decelerated to 33%. Shopify Payments penetration stalled at 68%.

SHOPShopifyNeutralShopify

1w ago on

Shopify $SHOP Q3'26 Earnings Preview Consensus Estimates: Revenue $3,744M (+31.7% YoY) EPS $0.46 (+35.3% YoY) If $SHOP beat estimates by 4.2% (same as last quarter) Q3'26 Revenue Growth will be +37.2% YoY Management Guidance: Q3'26 $3,700 - $3,780M guide (+31.5% YoY) https://t.co/Hjz2GgHh5J