NETCloudflareNeutralCloudflare

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$NET Cloudflare: Developer Adoption Surges 35% QoQ to 10M as AI Agent Traffic Grows 1,700% YoY. New Products Expand Cloudflare's AI Infrastructure Opportunities. Cloudflare surpassed 10M developers, up from 7.4M in Q2 (+35% QoQ), strengthening its developer ecosystem. Daily AI agent requests across Cloudflare's network increased over 1,700% YoY, reflecting accelerating adoption of agentic AI. Cloudflare introduced Basin, a serverless analytical data platform built on Apache Iceberg and R2. Basin enables developers to ingest, store, and query data without managing dedicated infrastructure. Zero egress fees could attract workloads from traditional cloud platforms, accelerate R2 adoption, and increase consumption revenue. Cloudflare OS expands into enterprise AI software. New integrations with Asana, Box, Canva, GitHub, and Notion allow employees to build AI workflows and agents with centralized security and cost controls. Enterprise adoption could create additional demand for Workers, AI Gateway, and Zero Trust services. AI crawling controls represent another growth opportunity. Cloudflare introduced Disallow AI Training and separate controls for search, AI training, and AI agents. Mixed-use crawlers account for 36.6% of verified crawler traffic, highlighting growing demand for AI content governance.

SESeaNeutralSea

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My Thoughts on $SE Sea Q3'26: Revenue Grows 43%, Monee Accelerates 64%, and Shopee Monetization Improves. Sea delivered strong Q3 results despite shares falling 5.8% after earnings. Revenue grew 43.4% YoY, decelerating from 48.1% in Q2. Gross margin improved for the fourth consecutive quarter to 45.85%, while operating and net margins declined slightly to 7.74% and 5.85%. I consider continued investment in logistics, fulfillment, and credit expansion positive, provided it supports sustainable growth. Shopee continues improving monetization. GMV grew 23.3% YoY, with quarterly orders reaching 4.5B (+300M QoQ). Revenue growth outpaced GMV, pushing commerce take rate to a record 15.3% (+0.7 PPs QoQ). Advertising revenue increased over 55% YoY, supported by 35%+ growth in advertising sellers and 13% higher spending per seller. Monee is Sea's fastest-growing business. Revenue growth accelerated to 63.8% YoY, with consumer and SME loans reaching $12.6B (+60% YoY). Off-Shopee SPayLater loans more than doubled, reaching 25% of SPayLater balances, demonstrating expansion beyond Shopee. Monee's 17.8% operating margin significantly exceeds Shopee's 2.6%. Management plans a standalone Monee IPO within 1–3 years to support future expansion. However, credit risks deserve attention. Loans overdue more than 90 days increased to 1.3%, particularly in Thailand and Brazil. Garena remains Sea's primary profit generator. Revenue grew 28.7% YoY, with operating margin reaching 53.9%. Despite contributing only around 10% of revenue, Garena generates the highest operating profit among Sea's businesses. Dependence on Free Fire remains a key risk, although new gaming titles could support diversification.

SESeaNeutralSea

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Is Sea Ltd’s credit quality already deteriorating, and is the low 1.3% 90-day NPL ratio being masked by fast credit portfolio growth? $SE Cost of Risk (CoR) is useful for forecasting the future direction of non-performing loans. It shows how much a lender is spending on provisions for expected credit losses. A higher CoR reduces net income and can act as an early warning indicator before deterioration appears in the 90-day NPL ratio. Cost of Risk increased to 5.8% in Q3, but it in manageable territory. A good level can generally be considered below 10%-15%, or below roughly 30% annualized. I use average Cost of Risk because Sea’s credit portfolio is still growing very fast at +60.9% YoY.

NeutralSPCXSpaceXSpaceXTAT&TAT&TTMUST-MobileT-Mobile

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SpaceX Challenges Telecom Giants With 69.5% Revenue Growth. Can Starlink Disrupt Global Connectivity? SpaceX Consumer revenue reached $3.12B (+57% YoY), while government and enterprise revenue grew 91% YoY to $2.13B. Combined connectivity revenue reached $5.25B (+69.5% YoY). Starlink subscribers increased 100% YoY to 14,000, although Starlink ARPU declined from $83 to $69 a year earlier. Connectivity is SpaceX's most profitable segment by EBITDA margin, generating $3.49B in adjusted EBITDA. $SPCX SpaceX delivered the fastest connectivity revenue growth in Q3 2026, increasing 69.5% YoY. Other telecom operators grew significantly slower: $TMUS T-Mobile +6.28%, $T AT&T +7.2%, and $VZ Verizon +2.87%. T-Mobile. Services revenue reached $19.65B (+6.28% YoY). Services revenue excludes equipment revenue from total revenue. Verizon. Mobility and broadband service revenue reached $23.4B (+2.87% YoY). AT&T. Advanced Connectivity revenue reached $29.5B (+7.2% YoY). Revenue growth benefited from the acquisition of Lumen's fiber business. Following Q3 results, management also reported 6.1% YoY growth in service revenue. Starlink's revenue growth significantly outpaces traditional telecom operators. However, Starlink is growing from a much smaller revenue base. Could Starlink Become a Serious Competitor to Verizon and AT&T? SpaceX's connectivity revenue is still approximately 4–6 times smaller than the comparable revenue of each of the three telecom companies. For Verizon, the main risk from SpaceX is its planned expansion into mobile connectivity. SpaceX agreed to acquire a nationwide block of 800 MHz low-band spectrum for Starlink Mobile. Verizon plans to launch its own service using these frequencies in early 2028.

SESeaNeutralSea

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Sea Limited $SE Q3'26 Results: ↗️$8,582.3M rev+43.4% YoY, +10.2% QoQ) beat est by 6.4% ↗️GM (45.9%, +2.4 PPs YoY) ↘️Operating Margin (7.7%, -0.2 PPs YoY)🟡 ↘️Operating Cash Flow Margin (17.5%, -13.9 PPs YoY)🟡 ↘️Net Margin (5.9%, -0.4 PPs YoY)🟡 ↘️EPS $0.78 missed est by -1.3%🟢 Revenue By Type Shopee Revenue ➡️$6,070.2M rev (+41.3% YoY, 70.7% of Rev) 🟡 ↘️Operating Margin (2.6%, -0.0 PPs YoY) Monee Revenue ➡️$1,621.9M rev (+63.8% YoY, 18.9% of Rev) 🟢 ↘️Operating Margin (17.8%, -7.3 PPs YoY) Garena Revenue ➡️$840.1M rev (+28.7% YoY, 9.8% of Rev) 🟡 ↗️Operating Margin (53.9%, +6.5 PPs YoY) Other Services ➡️$50.1M rev (+3.5% YoY, 0.7% of Rev) 🟡 ↘️Operating Margin (-180.5%, -124.7 PPs YoY) Key Metrics Garena ↗️Online Games Bookings $890M (+5.9% YoY)🟡 ➡️671.7M QAUs (+0.1% YoY, +5.4 QoQ) Shopee ➡️GMV $39,700M (+23.3% YoY)🟡 ➡️E-Commerce Orders $4,500M (+7.1% YoY)🟡 ↗️Commerce Take Rate (15.3%, +0.7 PPs QoQ, +2.0 PPs YoY)🟢 Credit Portfolio ↗️Loans Principal Outstanding $12.6B (+59.5% YoY)🟡 ↗️Provision for credit losses $681.5M (+82.3% YoY)🟡 ↗️NPL90+ Ratio (1.3%, +0.3 PPs QoQ)🟡 ↗️Cost of Risk (CoR) (Period-Average) (5.8%, +0.5 PPs QoQ)🟡 Operating expenses ↗️S&M/Revenue 22.0% (+2.8 PPs YoY) ↘️R&D/Revenue 3.5% (-1.3 PPs YoY) ↘️G&A/Revenue 5.0% (-0.7 PPs YoY) Dilution ↘️SBC/rev 2%, -0.2 PPs QoQ ↘️Basic shares up 3.0% YoY, -0.3 PPs QoQ ↘️Diluted shares down -0.8% YoY, -0.5 PPs QoQ🟢 Pros Revenue growth accelerated to 43.4% YoY. Gross margin expanded 2.4 PPs to 45.9%. Shopee take rate expanded 2.0 PPs YoY to 15.3%. Shopee advertising revenue increased over 55% YoY. Monee revenue increased 63.8% YoY. Garena operating margin expanded 6.5 PPs to 53.9%. Cons Operating cash flow margin fell 13.9 PPs YoY. Operating margin contracted 0.2 PPs to 7.7%. Monee operating margin contracted 7.3 PPs YoY. Credit loss provisions increased 82.3% YoY. NPL90+ ratio increased 0.3 PPs QoQ to 1.3%. S&M intensity rose 2.8 PPs YoY.