SESeaNeutralSeaIs Sea Ltd’s credit quality already deteriorating, and is the low 1.3% 90-day NPL ratio being masked by fast credit portfolio growth?
$SE Cost of Risk (CoR) is useful for forecasting the future direction of non-performing loans.
It shows how much a lender is spending on provisions for expected credit losses. A higher CoR reduces net income and can act as an early warning indicator before deterioration appears in the 90-day NPL ratio.
Cost of Risk increased to 5.8% in Q3, but it in manageable territory.
A good level can generally be considered below 10%-15%, or below roughly 30% annualized.
I use average Cost of Risk because Sea’s credit portfolio is still growing very fast at +60.9% YoY.
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SPCXSpaceXSpaceX
TAT&TAT&T
TMUST-MobileT-Mobile SpaceX Challenges Telecom Giants With 69.5% Revenue Growth. Can Starlink Disrupt Global Connectivity?
SpaceX Consumer revenue reached $3.12B (+57% YoY), while government and enterprise revenue grew 91% YoY to $2.13B. Combined connectivity revenue reached $5.25B (+69.5% YoY).
Starlink subscribers increased 100% YoY to 14,000, although Starlink ARPU declined from $83 to $69 a year earlier.
Connectivity is SpaceX's most profitable segment by EBITDA margin, generating $3.49B in adjusted EBITDA.
$SPCX SpaceX delivered the fastest connectivity revenue growth in Q3 2026, increasing 69.5% YoY.
Other telecom operators grew significantly slower: $TMUS T-Mobile +6.28%, $T AT&T +7.2%, and $VZ Verizon +2.87%.
T-Mobile. Services revenue reached $19.65B (+6.28% YoY). Services revenue excludes equipment revenue from total revenue.
Verizon. Mobility and broadband service revenue reached $23.4B (+2.87% YoY).
AT&T. Advanced Connectivity revenue reached $29.5B (+7.2% YoY). Revenue growth benefited from the acquisition of Lumen's fiber business. Following Q3 results, management also reported 6.1% YoY growth in service revenue.
Starlink's revenue growth significantly outpaces traditional telecom operators.
However, Starlink is growing from a much smaller revenue base. Could Starlink Become a Serious Competitor to Verizon and AT&T?
SpaceX's connectivity revenue is still approximately 4–6 times smaller than the comparable revenue of each of the three telecom companies.
For Verizon, the main risk from SpaceX is its planned expansion into mobile connectivity.
SpaceX agreed to acquire a nationwide block of 800 MHz low-band spectrum for Starlink Mobile.
Verizon plans to launch its own service using these frequencies in early 2028.
View original →SESeaNeutralSea Sea Limited $SE Q3'26 Results:
↗️$8,582.3M rev+43.4% YoY, +10.2% QoQ) beat est by 6.4%
↗️GM (45.9%, +2.4 PPs YoY)
↘️Operating Margin (7.7%, -0.2 PPs YoY)🟡
↘️Operating Cash Flow Margin (17.5%, -13.9 PPs YoY)🟡
↘️Net Margin (5.9%, -0.4 PPs YoY)🟡
↘️EPS $0.78 missed est by -1.3%🟢
Revenue By Type
Shopee Revenue
➡️$6,070.2M rev (+41.3% YoY, 70.7% of Rev) 🟡
↘️Operating Margin (2.6%, -0.0 PPs YoY)
Monee Revenue
➡️$1,621.9M rev (+63.8% YoY, 18.9% of Rev) 🟢
↘️Operating Margin (17.8%, -7.3 PPs YoY)
Garena Revenue
➡️$840.1M rev (+28.7% YoY, 9.8% of Rev) 🟡
↗️Operating Margin (53.9%, +6.5 PPs YoY)
Other Services
➡️$50.1M rev (+3.5% YoY, 0.7% of Rev) 🟡
↘️Operating Margin (-180.5%, -124.7 PPs YoY)
Key Metrics
Garena
↗️Online Games Bookings $890M (+5.9% YoY)🟡
➡️671.7M QAUs (+0.1% YoY, +5.4 QoQ)
Shopee
➡️GMV $39,700M (+23.3% YoY)🟡
➡️E-Commerce Orders $4,500M (+7.1% YoY)🟡
↗️Commerce Take Rate (15.3%, +0.7 PPs QoQ, +2.0 PPs YoY)🟢
Credit Portfolio
↗️Loans Principal Outstanding $12.6B (+59.5% YoY)🟡
↗️Provision for credit losses $681.5M (+82.3% YoY)🟡
↗️NPL90+ Ratio (1.3%, +0.3 PPs QoQ)🟡
↗️Cost of Risk (CoR) (Period-Average) (5.8%, +0.5 PPs QoQ)🟡
Operating expenses
↗️S&M/Revenue 22.0% (+2.8 PPs YoY)
↘️R&D/Revenue 3.5% (-1.3 PPs YoY)
↘️G&A/Revenue 5.0% (-0.7 PPs YoY)
Dilution
↘️SBC/rev 2%, -0.2 PPs QoQ
↘️Basic shares up 3.0% YoY, -0.3 PPs QoQ
↘️Diluted shares down -0.8% YoY, -0.5 PPs QoQ🟢
Pros
Revenue growth accelerated to 43.4% YoY.
Gross margin expanded 2.4 PPs to 45.9%.
Shopee take rate expanded 2.0 PPs YoY to 15.3%.
Shopee advertising revenue increased over 55% YoY.
Monee revenue increased 63.8% YoY.
Garena operating margin expanded 6.5 PPs to 53.9%.
Cons
Operating cash flow margin fell 13.9 PPs YoY.
Operating margin contracted 0.2 PPs to 7.7%.
Monee operating margin contracted 7.3 PPs YoY.
Credit loss provisions increased 82.3% YoY.
NPL90+ ratio increased 0.3 PPs QoQ to 1.3%.
S&M intensity rose 2.8 PPs YoY.
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ZETAZeta Global HoldingsNeutralZeta Global HoldingsZeta Global $ZETA: Revenue Growth Accelerates to 46%, Athena AI Drives Customer Expansion. Can Growth Sustain Its Momentum in 2027?
Zeta delivered strong Q3 2026 results, with revenue reaching $492.7M (+46.1% YoY), accelerating from 43.6% growth in Q2.
Excluding Marigold and political candidate revenue, growth accelerated from 28% to 30% YoY.
Profitability improved:
Gross margin remained stable at 60% (-0.2 PPs YoY), while operating margin expanded 6.7 PPs to 9%.
Operating income surged 421.6% YoY to $45.9M. Net income reached $38.3M, with an 8% net margin.
FCF increased 73% YoY to $82M, supported by operating leverage and improving cash conversion.
Athena AI is Zeta's primary growth catalyst.
More than 50% of Super-Scaled Customers actively use Athena monthly, up from over 40% in Q2.
Athena adopters generate over 70% of total revenue, and the top 25 Athena users delivered revenue growth exceeding 70% YoY.
Their net revenue retention exceeds company-wide retention by more than 500 basis points.
Customer expansion is accelerating:
Super-Scaled Customers increased 17.8% YoY to 212, while quarterly ARPU reached $2M, according to management.
Customers using five or more channels increased over 60% YoY, and cross-sell and upsell deals grew 38% YoY.
AthenaOS opens a larger enterprise opportunity.
Zeta plans to expand beyond marketing into inventory management, supply chains, fraud detection, and cybersecurity.
General availability is expected in Q1 2027.
Its Palantir partnership could generate over $100M in incremental annual revenue in the coming years, although commercialization remains at an early stage.
Management raised FY2026 guidance:
Revenue is now expected at $1.853B–$1.857B, above the $1.82B consensus.
Adj EBITDA guidance increased to $414.1M–$415.2M, and FCF guidance rose to $270.6M–$271.6M.
Q4 underlying revenue growth guidance of 23% implies deceleration from Q3's 30%.
Shares outstanding increased 5.3% YoY, highlighting dilution concerns.
At 4.7x EV/Sales and 29.5× forward P/E, valuation requires sustained execution.
View original →SESeaNeutralSea Sea Limited $SE Q3'26 Earnings Preview
Consensus Estimates:
Revenue $8,064M (+34.7% YoY)
EPS $0.79 (+33.9% YoY)
If $SE beat estimates by 9.8% (same as last quarter) Q3'26 Revenue Growth will be +47.9% YoY https://t.co/rtQ2s4UKpT
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