RKLBRocket LabBullishRocket Lab

Yesterday on

$RKLB's backlog soared 52% over the quarter to a record $3.57B, while revenue reached $268M (+73% YoY). Let's run through my report based on the 4 checkpoints from my preview: Neutron and R&D: The first launch won’t happen until at least 2027, but customers are voting with their wallets—in Q3, contracts worth $515+M were signed (with 16 missions in the pipeline), and the base launch price was raised from $55M to $70M amid a capacity shortage. The second stage and Thrust Module are already at LC-3, but peak expenses have not yet been reached: Non-GAAP R&D expenses rose from $75.5M to $92.7M. Space Systems Margin: Segment revenue reached $214.8M due to the conversion of SDA Tranche II/III defense contracts, and the backlog grew to $1.7B. The gross margin easily exceeded the 30% target: 33.5% on a GAAP basis (38.4% on a non-GAAP basis), with a Q4 forecast of 34–36% on a GAAP basis (39–41% on a non-GAAP basis). Electron Pace: Assembly accelerated to 1 rocket every 8 days (+37.5% YoY), with the 100th launch scheduled for November 14. Cash Flow and EBITDA: Operating cash flow (GAAP OCF) turned positive at $7.2M (up $91.2M QoQ) and reduced the FCF outflow from $110.1M to $23.9M. Adjusted loss EBITDA loss widened to $18M (Q4 guidance: -$14M…-$20M) due to Neutron-related expenses. The increase in Neutron’s price to $70M even before the first flight fully offsets the launch delay to 2027. The balance sheet shows $4.71B in liquidity; the Iridium acquisition is fully funded and awaits only final regulatory approval. With Q4 revenue guidance of $270–290M, short sellers (7.57% of short interest) remain under intense pressure.

RKLBRocket LabNeutralRocket Lab

2d ago on

Today’s $RKLB earnings report could prove to be historically significant. As a result, we may see a price move of 15–20%+. Management has a lot to prove. Below are their key promises and benchmarks from past conference calls. Let’s see if they hold up when put to the test. Four key indicators that will determine the stock’s fate: - Real timelines and CapEx for Neutron: The market is tired of general updates on Archimedes engine tests. We need hard, concrete details on infrastructure readiness, firm contracts for the new rocket, and confirmation that R&D costs have peaked. - Space Systems Margins: Space Systems is the foundation of the backlog ($1+ billion). Investors need to see an expansion of the gross margin (toward the target of 30%+) and the seamless conversion of SDA defense contracts into revenue. - Electron Launch Cadence and ASP: Confirmation of the stated launch pace without delays, accompanied by continued growth in average contract value (ASP above $8M). - Cash Burn and Path to FCF+: Clear guidance for the next quarter and the timeline for reaching sustainable profitability on an adjusted EBITDA basis. My verdict: RKLB’s valuation already factors in a premium for flawless execution. Any hint of a delay with Neutron will trigger another sharp sell-off, whereas strong guidance will set off a powerful short squeeze. Short Interest Level - 7.57%.

NeutralRKLBRocket LabRocket LabCRDOCredo Technology Group HoldingCredo Technology Group HoldingIRENIREN LIMITEDIREN LIMITEDMUMicron TechnologyMicron TechnologyNBISNebius Group N.V.Nebius Group N.V.NVDANVIDIANVIDIASNDKSandisk CorporationSandisk Corporation

6d ago on

Damn it. Turns out the Democrats learned at least one thing from Trump: how to nuke the market right when everyone is waiting for fireworks. $IREN -20% | $NBIS -18% | $SNDK -21% | $CRDO -17% | $MU -16% | $RKLB -15% | $NVDA -10% Appreciate it, guys. Just bring back communism and outlaw AI already, so we can finally go back to the "good old days."

NeutralRKLBRocket LabRocket LabCRDOCredo Technology Group HoldingCredo Technology Group HoldingIRENIREN LIMITEDIREN LIMITEDMUMicron TechnologyMicron TechnologyNBISNebius Group N.V.Nebius Group N.V.NVDANVIDIANVIDIASNDKSandisk CorporationSandisk Corporation

6d ago on

Damn it. But the Democrats have learned something from Trump. That is, how to crash the markets just when everyone is expecting a celebratory fireworks display. Thanks a lot—all that’s left is to bring back communism and ban AI. Then we’ll all live like in the good old days. $IREN -20% $NBIS -18% $SNDK -21% $CRDO -17% $MU -16% $RKLB -15% $NVDA -10%