LITELumentum Holdings Inc.NeutralLumentum Holdings Inc.AAOIApplied Optoelectronics, Inc.BullishApplied Optoelectronics, Inc.COHRCoherent Corp.NeutralCoherent Corp.

3d ago on

Many investors are dissatisfied with $AAOI’s Q3 2026 earnings report. But I’d like to weigh in based on my analysis of what we heard during the conference call. The market has focused on the delay in AAOI’s construction project in Texas, but has overlooked the key catalyst that matters to investors. The CEO announced a second LTA in the final stages, which will be more than five times larger than the first ($5–7.5B compared to $1–1.5B). Let’s move on to the key insights for investors: Exponential shift to 1.6T: Hyperscalers are transitioning from 800G to 1.6T faster than expected. Firm orders for 1.6T already total $450M, and shipments in Q4 2026 (total guidance of $385–420M, +200% YoY) are held back only by a temporary shortage of DSP chips. Hidden Margin in CPO/NPO: AAOI’s ultra-high-power lasers (100–350 mW) have demonstrated superior energy efficiency at 4–5 customers. The gross margin on lasers exceeds 60%—this is the main driver behind the return of overall gross margin to 40%. Run-rate of $471M/month by the end of 2027: Despite the postponement of Phase 2 due to grid connection issues, the production plan has been increased to 1+M modules per month (~$5.6B per year) with a net profit margin of about 20%. Verdict: Over the next 18 months, the entire industry—including AAOI, $LITE, $COHR, and others—will meet less than 80% of demand. Any pullback amid logistical disruptions represents a fundamental entry point ahead of a significant revaluation.

LITELumentum Holdings Inc.NeutralLumentum Holdings Inc.MRVLMarvellBullishMarvell

1w ago on

My take on the $MRVL and $LITE deal? Remember when Jensen Huang said that Marvell would be the next company to reach a $1T valuation? Well, the all-stock acquisition of Lumentum is exactly that move. There’s not a single reason why MRVL stands to lose from this deal. But there are 100 reasons why this is the most important move in the competition for a bigger slice of the AI market pie. Matthew Murphy, congratulations—you’ve won an important battle. And this deal took virtually everyone by surprise.

NeutralLITELumentum Holdings Inc.Lumentum Holdings Inc.MRVLMarvellMarvell

1w ago on

$POET has appointed a new CFO. And Thomas Miku has finally been fired. He is the very person who may be the reason $MRVL is buying $LITE today, when it could have gone ahead with its planned acquisition of POET. As a reminder, on April 27, MRVL severed ties with POET, including canceling orders with Celestial AI. And it was precisely Miku’s video interview on April 21 that was the most likely cause of the "breach of confidentiality" in the relationship between the companies. Today, Giovanni M. Pacelli has been appointed as the new CFO. I don’t know him personally, but it’s known that he previously worked at Silicon Labs. And since Silicon Labs has a market capitalization of $7.4B and its stock has risen 70% since the start of the year, I’m hopeful that the new CFO will act as a good-luck charm and help kickstart a new phase of growth for POET.

NeutralLITELumentum Holdings Inc.Lumentum Holdings Inc.AVGOBroadcomBroadcomMRVLMarvellMarvell

1w ago on

How much will $SIVE be worth if, for example, $AVGO wants to buy it out? My thoughts are prompted by the potential acquisition of $LITE by $MRVL, which will affect the entire market for independent InP lasers. It makes no sense to value SIVE based on its current revenue ($28.7M) — Broadcom will be buying security for its multibillion-dollar ASIC and CPO business, gaining 3–4 years’ head start on building its own factory. By the end of 2027, the InP100 program will bring SIVE to a production capacity of 100+ million CW lasers per year, generating up to $240–$285M in potential revenue from the Wireless segment in 2028. Bringing laser production in-house will save AVGO $120–$160M in annual EBITDA. And the sale of the non-core Wireless division ($350–$450M), in classic Hock Tan style, will reduce the net transaction cost to ~$1.4B. Given industry multiples of 7.5x–8.5x EV/Sales (2028), SIVE’s fair M&A valuation is at least $1.80–$2.42B ($5.64–$7.58 per share). This represents a premium of 171%–264% over the current market price. What do you think: is such a deal possible? And if so, will Sivers agree to a buyout or choose to grow organically during the CPO supercycle?

NeutralLITELumentum Holdings Inc.Lumentum Holdings Inc.MRVLMarvellMarvell

1w ago on

In December 2025, in an article I wrote for @SeekingAlpha, I analyzed a potential acquisition of $POET by $MRVL. In May 2026, that idea was shot down, but today everyone is talking about a potential acquisition of market leader $LITE. But the potential acquisition of LITE by MRVL is a game-changer in the photonics sector, directly reinforcing my investment thesis on POET. Scaling custom AI chips is impossible without energy-efficient optical interconnects. And MRVL’s move toward LITE confirms the giant’s ambition to monopolize the value chain in data center optics. For POET, this is a powerful catalyst for a revaluation. The company’s optical interposer has already served as the foundation for Celestial AI’s Photonic Fabric platform. With mass production underway and a modest market capitalization of about $1B, POET is becoming a priority M&A target for the final vertical integration of other competitors. In the race for AI infrastructure, big tech is shifting from partnerships to direct acquisitions of unique technologies. Will POET be the next acquisition target? Share your thoughts!