⚠️Everyone's treating the midterm as the end of the Iran war. After Wednesday's 8% smash, WTI is near $89 and Brent near $96. A tanker took two projectile hits off Qatar last night. UKMTO reported it this morning. Distillates dropped 3.6 million barrels last week to 99.3 million. That's the lowest since May 2003, and winter demand is just getting started. I think this drop gets bought if the talks stall. Are you fading this smash, or trusting the peace headline?

Vitol's CEO just named the tension in oil: demand has shrunk ~3m b/d, yet inventories are low and there's no spare capacity. WTI slipping under $100 on Iran talk hopes prices in peace. If talks fail, there's no buffer left. Is the market fading the risk premium too early? https://t.co/teCloq5rB1 https://t.co/kwjibAeV6b

⚠️The oil–bond correlation broke. 40-session Pearson ρ on WTI × 10Y: −0.316 (was strongly positive most of the year). Soft negative = growth-scare bias. WTI last ~$101.08. If oil and yields aren’t linked, what’s driving duration now? https://t.co/R2cZfM2Rrn

🛢️WTI >$101. Markets price ~90–93% odds of a Fed hold Wednesday. CPI 3.7%, diesel ~$6.20/gal (+67% YoY). Talk tough, do nothing — oil still wins. Does oil or the Fed win this week? https://t.co/vULe3UaLf9

🛢️WTI >$100 + rising CPI/PPI = the bond rally is a trap. Yields are about to resume higher. WTI is back above $101 as CPI hits 3.7% YoY and PPI surges 1.3% MoM / 6.3% YoY. inflation is reaccelerating. Last week’s 10Y yield drop (~15 bps) looks like a classic dead-cat bounce. I expect yields to resume higher next week as sticky inflation forces the market’s hand. Global strategic reserves are stretched (US SPR ~283M barrels, near multi-decade lows). It won’t take much more disruption to see oil above $150. Who’s still long duration after this week’s bounce? Reply with your 10Y target by month-end.