Called $XAU bullish on Nov 19, 2025: $XAU rose 30% in 2 months.
View call →
Investment Strategist | Founder, Lisi Quant Analysis LLC | Macro Insights | Commodities, Geopolitics & Markets | LinkedIn Top Voice Finance & Economics 📈
Cite asCryptoQuant has tracked the directional calls on SPY by @Andrea_Lisi_CFA on X since Nov 2025: not yet scored on SPY (as of Nov 11, 2026).
Absolute view by default: Andrea Lisi states bull / bear plainly (100% of directional calls are outright).
Sentiment timeline shows relative sentiment within this analyst's history. A perma-bull showing 8 bullish : 2 bearish in a bear market sets that as their baseline. If you notice any errors, claim @Andrea_Lisi_CFA to submit corrections.
Called $XAU bullish on Nov 19, 2025: $XAU rose 30% in 2 months.
View call →Hover the chart to read the thesis of that period · click a day to pin it
📈Buying VIX spikes only paid inside an uptrend. I tested every VIX spike since 1990: first close above 25 after 20+ closes below it. 50 episodes. S&P 500 above its 200-day, median forward returns: 3M +4.6% 6M +7.2% 1Y +16.6% 2Y +22.3% Below the 200-day, the same signal failed: -0.5%, -3.6% and -4.7% over 3M, 6M and 1Y. The trend filter also cut the tail. Worst 1Y outcome was -22.0% above the 200-day vs -38.7% below. It is not a free lunch. 2000 and late 2021 came inside uptrends that were about to break. That's why the VIX is one factor in my models, not the whole model. Nov 5 qualified: VIX 28.18, S&P 500 just above its 200-day. Today's hot CPI is the first test of that trend. Do you let a model buy the fear, or your gut? Not investment advice.
View original →📈Nvidia is down about 6% premarket. For me, the bigger story is key-person risk. Jensen runs a tight ship at the top, and there is no clear successor. He is the visionary, and Nvidia's fortunes depend on him. At most companies, a board would already be under pressure to remove the CEO. Nvidia's board can't really do that without sinking the stock. The other risk is distraction. Jensen now has to repair things at home while Nvidia needs him focused on strategy, China and export controls. I also expect some funds to reduce Nvidia exposure after this. Governance headlines give risk committees an easy reason to trim. And shareholders were not having a great year even before the weekend. $NVDA was up just 0.3% YTD at Friday's close vs SPY +8.7%. How much key-person discount would you put on Nvidia?
View original →October NFP crushed consensus. Labor isn't rolling over. +165k payrolls vs ~60k expected. U3 4.1%. Wages +0.4% m/m, +3.1% y/y. Priors revised up. Breadth broadened — professional services led. I'm reading this as the Fed keeping December in play. Soft-landing talk gets louder when the jobs number lands like this. SPX closed 7,354 yesterday, a whisker above the 200-day near 7,323 after Thursday's -4.4% flush. ES tagged ~7,322 overnight then bounced ~+0.25%; NQ recovering ~+1.5% after the AI wipeout. For the diligent long-term investor, holding the 200-day after a liquidation day is the entry I've been watching on the chart. Long-term trend still intact. Chart: SPX vs 200-day. Drop your take below.
View original →⚠️ The momentum trade is breaking, and systematic money hasn't sold yet. 📉 $SPMO / $SPX closed Friday at 1.80: 4.5% below its 200-day, 17% off the June peak, and 12 straight closes under the line. In October, SPMO fell 10.1% while the S&P 500 lost 0.9%. From the July 2023 low to June, this ratio rose 78%. Nearly three years of crowding into AI and mega-caps doesn't unwind in one bad month. I think systematic funds still have deleveraging to do, and a bottom could take a few more weeks. 🗓️ This week's catalysts land back to back: 👉 Mon: ISM Mfg; $AAPL, $PLTR after the close 👉 Tue: Midterms, JOLTS; $AMD after the close 👉 Wed: ADP, ISM Services 👉 Thu: Jobless claims, Q3 productivity 👉 Fri: October payrolls (consensus ~+40k to +65k vs +29k in Sep) 🇮🇷 Tail risk: reports that US strikes on Iran could resume as soon as Nov 4. Not my base case. 🏦 On the Fed: futures price ~75% odds of a December hike (CME FedWatch, Oct 30). I don't think it happens. AI is now too strategic to let financial conditions tighten this fast, and I expect Chair Warsh to hold. Still constructive on US equities into year-end. Until this ratio reclaims its 200-day, momentum is the exposure I'd watch most. ❓ Are you cutting momentum here, or buying the AI dip?
View original →67 months above target is the case for a hike. The case against: financial conditions for AI names have already tightened hard. $SPMO/$SPX is 17% off its June peak and systematic funds are still de-grossing. Futures price ~75% for December. I think Warsh holds. What would change your mind?
View original →
