Called $XAU bullish on Nov 19, 2025: $XAU rose 30% in 2 months.
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Investment Strategist | Founder, Lisi Quant Analysis LLC | Macro Insights | Commodities, Geopolitics & Markets | LinkedIn Top Voice Finance & Economics 📈
Cite asCryptoQuant has tracked the directional calls on UVXY by @Andrea_Lisi_CFA on X since Nov 2025: not yet scored on UVXY (as of Nov 11, 2026).
2 UVXY calls on record, a thin history.
Relative view by default: fewer than 30 UVXY calls or days on record.
Sentiment timeline shows relative sentiment within this analyst's history. A perma-bull showing 8 bullish : 2 bearish in a bear market sets that as their baseline. If you notice any errors, claim @Andrea_Lisi_CFA to submit corrections.
Called $XAU bullish on Nov 19, 2025: $XAU rose 30% in 2 months.
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📈Buying VIX spikes only paid inside an uptrend. I tested every VIX spike since 1990: first close above 25 after 20+ closes below it. 50 episodes. S&P 500 above its 200-day, median forward returns: 3M +4.6% 6M +7.2% 1Y +16.6% 2Y +22.3% Below the 200-day, the same signal failed: -0.5%, -3.6% and -4.7% over 3M, 6M and 1Y. The trend filter also cut the tail. Worst 1Y outcome was -22.0% above the 200-day vs -38.7% below. It is not a free lunch. 2000 and late 2021 came inside uptrends that were about to break. That's why the VIX is one factor in my models, not the whole model. Nov 5 qualified: VIX 28.18, S&P 500 just above its 200-day. Today's hot CPI is the first test of that trend. Do you let a model buy the fear, or your gut? Not investment advice.
View original →My biggest short-term concern: systematic investors have not been flushed out yet. Deutsche Bank's latest CEP still has them elevated at the 79th percentile, unchanged over the past week. The VIX ripped toward 30 this morning and tagged about 28. I expect some short-term indiscriminate selling from that. If we get that flush, it might be a good entry for the diligent long-term investor. Is the systematic flush still ahead of us?
View original →As of Oct 2026, SPX 8,200 year-end on EPS growth; hot CPI risks reassessment.
🗓️Higher rates haven’t killed the AI trade. Banks report first. CPI is the real test. Major banks report Tuesday–Wednesday ($JPM.NE , $GS.NE , $CSCO , $WFC.PRA , $BAC.PRB , $MS.NE , solana:6YUGpQAAtAtLKxKZqmhDnpznPETtHsftMMjcwC4xpump and others). $ASML.NE and robinhood:0x58ffe4a942d3885baa22d7520691f611ef09e7aa follow on the semiconductor side. At the same time we get September CPI (Wednesday 8:30 ET), retail sales, PPI, claims (Thursday), and the Beige Book. I’m still holding SPX 8,200 for year-end 2026. That rests on ~$360 of S&P 500 EPS this year and $415 next year (~15% growth). I expect Market breadth to stay narrow. Semiconductors and mega-cap growth remain the areas least impaired by higher rates heading into 2027. What I’m watching: 1⃣CPI core MoM and services: immediate reaction in the 10-year, 2s10s, DXY, and equity futures 2⃣Thursday cluster (retail sales control group, core PPI, claims): confirms or contradicts the CPI narrative 3⃣Bank calls: NII guidance, credit provisions, capital markets, and any consumer or rate commentary 4⃣Fed speakers: any deviation from “further tightening likely appropriate” 5⃣Levels: SPX 7,800–7,820 | 10-year 5.20–5.30% | VIX still mid-teens Risks Hotter CPI/PPI or revisions, weaker bank credit quality, oil spike on geopolitics, unexpected Fed commentary, and Friday options expiration flows. Solid bank results + contained core inflation keeps the constructive path intact. A hot CPI or credit deterioration would force a reassessment. What’s your biggest risk this week? CPI, bank credit, or something else? Not Investment Advice
View original →⚠️The bid under the S&P is a machine. Machines sell when vol rises. Deutsche Bank’s positioning split is extreme. Systematic strategies are at the 92nd percentile. Discretionary investors are at the 27th. That is not a balanced market. It is a quant-funded one. The VIX is still mid-teens while Brent is above $105 and the 10-year is pinned near 5.35%. Trend followers do not de-risk because the macro story changes. They de-risk when volatility rises. A vol spike is the trigger, not the forecast. If CTAs and systematic books unwind together, a 5–10% S&P 500 drawdown is the mechanical outcome, not a tail fantasy. Discretionary cash is the only real bid underneath, and it is not positioned to catch the first leg. Long duration is not the hedge. Bonds and equities are both short the same shock: oil, term premium, and a Fed that still has another hike on the table. The 60/40 diversifier is the position that fails in this regime, as I posted repeatedly. For now, the cleaner book is market-neutral hedge funds, liquid alternatives, commodities, and short-duration Treasuries. Get paid for carry. Do not rent duration as insurance. Not a recommendation. A positioning observation.
View original →📈Last week’s 5.23% on the 10-year was not the high if Wednesday’s PCE is hot. The last full PCE + payrolls package before the Oct 27–28 FOMC lands this week. Core PCE is still printed at 3.3% y/y. Consensus NFP is +100k, not a collapse. ISM is expected at 55 with a 57 flash already in. I think that is not a cut tape. It is a “does October hike stay live” tape. If PCE runs hot and Friday’s jobs report holds with no ugly revision, the 10-year does not need a new narrative to go through last week’s 5.23% high. The Fed hiking into midterms is the politically ugly path, markets price ugly when the inflation print forces it. VIX ~15 is not calm. It is ATM cheap. SKEW being this elevated means the bid is in OTM protection, not in the index itself. That is hedging, not confidence. Two clocks: ⏱️Wed 8:15–8:35 (PCE stack) ⏱️Fri 8:30 (NFP / AHE). MU after the close Wed is the only earnings print with index weight. Not investment advice.
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