Called $BTC bullish on Apr 10, 2025: $BTC rose 55% in 6 months.
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I help busy people cut through the noise in DeFi. Systems driven research without the hype or bs.
Cite asCryptoQuant has tracked the directional calls on UNI by @thedefiedge on X since Jan 2022: not yet scored on UNI (as of Nov 11, 2026).
Other assets covered (16)
1 UNI call on record, a thin history.
Relative view by default: fewer than 30 UNI calls or days on record.
Sentiment timeline shows relative sentiment within this analyst's history. A perma-bull showing 8 bullish : 2 bearish in a bear market sets that as their baseline. If you notice any errors, claim @thedefiedge to submit corrections.
Called $BTC bullish on Apr 10, 2025: $BTC rose 55% in 6 months.
View call →Hover the chart to read the thesis of that period · click a day to pin it
Everyone's scared right now. That's usually when the next cycle's biggest winners are sitting there cheap. By the time ppl start shilling again, most of the move is already gone. Here are the 5 narratives I'm watching before the markets pump: 1. AI Inference Every time someone uses Claude or an AI agent, somebody pays for the computing power behind it. That's inference. As agents do more work on their own, that bill keeps getting bigger. Some crypto projects already let people buy or access that compute through their tokens. I'd check two things. Are there real paying customers? And does that demand actually flow back to the token? • $VVV $ORBIO 2. Proof of Useful Work / AI Compute Bitcoin miners burn a huge amount of computing power just to secure the network. Pearl and Nockchain are betting the same kind of hardware can do useful work (AI models, ZK proofs) and still earn rewards. Bittensor goes broader and pays people for useful AI contributions. The catch is that a network can have thousands of GPUs running with nobody actually paying to use them. So the number I care about is revenue from real customers vs rewards paid by printing new tokens. • $PEARL $NOCK $TAO 3. Privacy Right now anyone can look up a wallet and see the savings in it and every payment it's ever made. Businesses and AI agents aren't gonna move serious money on rails like that. Zcash and Monero already do private payments. Newer projects are building private apps and smart contracts. The obvious risk is regulators. Honestly, I don't have a clean answer to that one. So I'd trust usage over headlines. That means growth in private transactions and apps that really need privacy to work. • $ZEC $XMR $NIGHT 4. Quantum Resistance Quantum computers may one day break the cryptography that protects most crypto wallets. And you can't upgrade a whole blockchain overnight. The interesting part is that networks are already taking different routes. NEAR added quantum-safe signatures (ML-DSA) to mainnet in July. Starknet is aiming to be fully quantum resistant by 2027. Quantus launched in September with quantum-resistant signatures from day one. I'm honestly not sure on timing here. So I'd only care which upgrades are actually live, and whether any of it creates demand for the token. • $QTC $NEAR $STRK 5. Revenue & Buybacks The part most people still skip is doing the math after dilution. Say a project buys back $10M while unlocking $50M in new tokens. It's still putting more on the market than it's taking off. So I'd look at how much revenue actually reaches the token after unlocks and emissions. • $HYPE $UNI $PUMP I wouldn't buy all five today. I'd build a watchlist with 2 or 3 projects per sector and check those numbers once a month. The setup I want is the number getting better while the price hasn't caught up yet. That gap is usually widest when everyone's scared... like right now. The narrative gets a coin on your watchlist. The numbers tell you when to buy. Which of these five do you think the market is still sleeping on?
View original →BTC went up 5.6% in two months. Raydium went up 178%. Uniswap 80%. Aero 77%. I dug into what the winners had in common. It wasn't that they were cheap. https://t.co/ZKXdzBSfkI
View original →$STONK is up 513% in the last 30 days, but its revenue pace is down 34%. The SEC just made token buybacks a lot easier, so I wanted to know which protocols are actually earning more while their tokens lag behind. I checked 23 revenue tokens across 7 sectors and compared revenue pace to 30D price growth. Launchpads - https://t.co/f1pTxLVLNd: Revenue -34% | $STONK +513% - https://t.co/h9VveifpFO: Revenue -7% | $BONK +19% - https://t.co/xR4HP5omQ3: Revenue +34% | $PUMP +52% - Pons: Revenue -66% | $PONS -52% Chains - TRON: Revenue -3% | $TRX +2% - Polygon: Revenue +4% | $POL +13% - Avalanche: Revenue +51% | $AVAX +46% - Arbitrum: Revenue +20% | $ARB +54% DEXs - Curve: Revenue +69% | $CRV +5% - Raydium: Revenue -33% | $RAY +145% - Uniswap: Revenue -33% | $UNI +45% Perp DEXs - Hyperliquid: Revenue -12% | $HYPE +10% - Lighter: Revenue +3% | $LIT -16% - GMX: Revenue +47% | $GMX +13% Lending - Aave: Revenue -1% | $AAVE +38% - Sky: Revenue -1% | $SKY +39% - World Liberty: Revenue +4% | $WLFI -2% Cross-chain - THORChain: Revenue -5% | $RUNE +62% - Chainflip: Revenue +40% | $FLIP -26% - NEAR: Revenue +21% | $NEAR +125% Liquid staking - Lido: Revenue +5% | $LDO +22% - https://t.co/amwOX2ZI2i: Revenue +8% | $ETHFI +37% - Solv: Revenue +4% | $SOLV +32% A few of these tokens are pumping while the protocol makes less money. $STONK is the wildest, but $RAY and $UNI are doing it too: - $RAY: Revenue -33% | Price +145% - $UNI: Revenue -33% | Price +45% And a few are earning way more while the token barely moves: - $CRV: Revenue +69% | Price +5% - $GMX: Revenue +47% | Price +13% - $FLIP: Revenue +40% | Price -26% None of this means $CRV or $GMX has to go up. 30 days is a short window, and revenue only helps a buyback if it actually flows back to the token. But if I'm hunting for buyback plays, I'd start with the ones where revenue keeps climbing and price hasn't caught on yet. I'd rather dig into those than ape whatever token just announced a buyback. What revenue tokens are you watching right now?
View original →Hyperliquid returned $56.6M to its token last month, about 4x what $STONK returned. But STONK's buybacks equaled ~6.5% of its market cap. HYPE's were only ~0.3%. Which matters a lot if you're picking tokens based on revenue. Here's how much protocol revenue actually made it back to tokens over the last 30 days: $HYPE: $56.6M → $56.6M (100%) $PUMP: $52.6M → $23.6M (45%) $STONK: $26.6M → $13.3M (50%) $PONS: $24.1M → $16.5M (69%) $UNI: $15.7M → $15.7M (100%) $SKY: $13.5M → $5M (37%) $RAY: $7.3M → $4.6M (63%) $JUP: $6.3M → $3.1M (50%) $LIT: $4.5M → $2.8M (62%) $NEAR: $1.83M → $1.77M (97%) $VVV: $829K in tracked buybacks and burns These numbers mix buybacks, burns and distributions, so they're not all cash landing in holders' wallets. Looking at this list, you'd think $HYPE and $UNI win because they send everything back. But the percentage leaves out how big the buyback is compared to the token's market cap, and that changes the ranking a lot. A month of buybacks barely moves HYPE's supply. At this pace, HYPE would need almost two years to remove the share of supply that STONK removed in one month. I also wouldn't annualize these numbers yet. $PONS returned $16.5M over the last 30 days, but only $1.2M of that came in during the latest week. If activity keeps slowing, next month's buybacks will be a lot smaller. Token unlocks matter here too. If a project buys back $10M a month while unlocking $30M worth of tokens, supply is still going up. Personally, I'd rather see smaller, consistent buybacks that actually shrink circulating supply than massive buyback announcements funded by one unusually good month.
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