I help busy people cut through the noise in DeFi. Systems driven research without the hype or bs.
Cite asCryptoQuant has tracked the directional calls on ARB by @thedefiedge on X since Jan 2022: not yet scored on ARB (as of Nov 11, 2026).
Other assets covered (17)
2 ARB calls on record, a thin history.
Relative view by default: fewer than 30 ARB calls or days on record.
Sentiment timeline shows relative sentiment within this analyst's history. A perma-bull showing 8 bullish : 2 bearish in a bear market sets that as their baseline. If you notice any errors, claim @thedefiedge to submit corrections.
Hover the chart to read the thesis of that period · click a day to pin it
$1.3B in tokens unlocks in October. Here are the 5 I'm watching, and the 4 things that tell you whether an unlock actually dumps: - $PUMP (Oct 11): ~$41.5M unlocking, around 1.5% of supply. Up roughly 12% over the 7 days after its previous unlock on Sep 11. - $APT (Oct 11): ~$8.5M unlocking, around 0.6% of supply. After its previous unlock on Sep 11, APT fell roughly 7% over the next 7 days. - $STRK (Oct 15): ~$6.2M unlocking, around 3.4% of supply. The ironic part? STRK gained roughly 73% in the 7 days after its Sep 14 unlock. - $ARB (Oct 16): ~$17M unlocking, around 1.6% of supply. ARB was up roughly 69% in the week after its Sep 15 unlock. - $ZRO (Oct 20): ~$54M unlocking, around 4% of supply. Its Sep 19 unlock was followed by roughly a 45% gain over the next 7 days. The obvious mistake here would be looking at those September returns and assuming the same thing happens again. A lot of that was the market. $BTC went from ~$63k in mid-August to the high $80s by Mid-September, sentiment flipped bullish, and alts caught the wave right as these unlocks were hitting. The better question is what actually happens to the new tokens. HYPE is the best example from this week. Its unlock looked huge on paper, but a large part of the team allocation being claimed was sold OTC to a single institutional buyer instead of immediately hitting the open market. That’s why I’d care more about: 1. how big the unlock is vs supply 2. who receives it 3. whether those tokens move to exchanges 4. what the market is doing at the same time For most of these, the tokens go to the team, core contributors, and strategic partners, so that part doesn't separate them much. Size does, which is why $ZRO and $STRK get most of my attention at 4% and 3.4% of supply. Which upcoming unlock are you watching most closely?
View original →$STONK is up 513% in the last 30 days, but its revenue pace is down 34%. The SEC just made token buybacks a lot easier, so I wanted to know which protocols are actually earning more while their tokens lag behind. I checked 23 revenue tokens across 7 sectors and compared revenue pace to 30D price growth. Launchpads - https://t.co/f1pTxLVLNd: Revenue -34% | $STONK +513% - https://t.co/h9VveifpFO: Revenue -7% | $BONK +19% - https://t.co/xR4HP5omQ3: Revenue +34% | $PUMP +52% - Pons: Revenue -66% | $PONS -52% Chains - TRON: Revenue -3% | $TRX +2% - Polygon: Revenue +4% | $POL +13% - Avalanche: Revenue +51% | $AVAX +46% - Arbitrum: Revenue +20% | $ARB +54% DEXs - Curve: Revenue +69% | $CRV +5% - Raydium: Revenue -33% | $RAY +145% - Uniswap: Revenue -33% | $UNI +45% Perp DEXs - Hyperliquid: Revenue -12% | $HYPE +10% - Lighter: Revenue +3% | $LIT -16% - GMX: Revenue +47% | $GMX +13% Lending - Aave: Revenue -1% | $AAVE +38% - Sky: Revenue -1% | $SKY +39% - World Liberty: Revenue +4% | $WLFI -2% Cross-chain - THORChain: Revenue -5% | $RUNE +62% - Chainflip: Revenue +40% | $FLIP -26% - NEAR: Revenue +21% | $NEAR +125% Liquid staking - Lido: Revenue +5% | $LDO +22% - https://t.co/amwOX2ZI2i: Revenue +8% | $ETHFI +37% - Solv: Revenue +4% | $SOLV +32% A few of these tokens are pumping while the protocol makes less money. $STONK is the wildest, but $RAY and $UNI are doing it too: - $RAY: Revenue -33% | Price +145% - $UNI: Revenue -33% | Price +45% And a few are earning way more while the token barely moves: - $CRV: Revenue +69% | Price +5% - $GMX: Revenue +47% | Price +13% - $FLIP: Revenue +40% | Price -26% None of this means $CRV or $GMX has to go up. 30 days is a short window, and revenue only helps a buyback if it actually flows back to the token. But if I'm hunting for buyback plays, I'd start with the ones where revenue keeps climbing and price hasn't caught on yet. I'd rather dig into those than ape whatever token just announced a buyback. What revenue tokens are you watching right now?
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