Formerly @neilksethi. MP at Sethi Associates. Jujitsu Enthusiast. Hopeless Optimist. Author at TheStreet Pro. https://t.co/NsHrbT8zA4
Cite asCryptoQuant has tracked the directional calls on IWM by @neilsethinew on X since Sep 2026: not yet scored on IWM (as of Nov 11, 2026).
Other assets covered (14)
Relative view by default: fewer than 30 IWM calls or days on record.
Sentiment timeline shows relative sentiment within this analyst's history. A perma-bull showing 8 bullish : 2 bearish in a bear market sets that as their baseline. If you notice any errors, claim @neilsethinew to submit corrections.
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US equity indices opened down on the hawkish CPI/Fedspeak combo, rallied in the first 30 mins, but that was sold, sending indices to lower levels. They steadily ground higher in the afternoon off those levels but still ended lower w/Nasdaq & RUT -0.7%, SPX -0.4%, DJIA -0.3%. https://t.co/sRehLyFKLn
View original →Markets started higher and climbed throughout the session before falling off a touch in the last half hour. Still SPX and DJIA finished up 2.4% and 2.2% and the Nasdaq and RUT 2.7% and 3.2% respectively. https://t.co/LewFl1pIEZ
View original →CBOE's Xu: Will the AI Sell-Off Turn Macro? So far, the pain has been largely concentrated in the Tech sector. In fact, 5 of the 11 S&P sectors ended the week in the green. This is why correlation levels remain muted, with COR1M Index increasing only modestly to a “high” of 22% on Thursday. This is highly unusual. Typically, when we see a market sell off of that magnitude (SPX -4% in a day), implied correlation levels have averaged closer to 70% (going back 20 years). Right now, the options market is still pricing for a rotation trade (AI vs. everything else), with very little fear of contagion. This can also be seen in the divergence in several RV index spreads, with the QQQ-SPX 1M implied vol spread widening back to near record highs (i.e. elevated Tech risk) while RTY-SPX vol spread fell to near a multi-year low (i.e. small caps largely insulated from the AI trade).
View original →Looking at the seasonality breakdown from @AlmanacTrader, editor of the Stock Trader’s Almanac & Almanac Investor Newsletter, this week is where November’s normally strong start has historically stalled. Monday is trading day 6, the last of the six straight bullish days Hirsch counts to open the month. Over the past 21 years it has also marked the high of November’s first half, with the major indices up about 1.2–1.5% for the month on average. Tuesday has then been the weakest day of the week. The Nasdaq has fallen about 0.75%, the S&P 500, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 about 0.5%, and the Dow about 0.3%. A Thursday bounce of 0.25–0.45% has mostly been given back on Friday. For the week, that leaves the Dow about flat, the S&P, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 down about 0.15%, and the Nasdaq down about 0.5%. Midterm years have held up better, though small caps and tech have had a rough Tuesday there too. On Tuesday in midterm years, the Russell 2000 has dropped about 0.65% and the Nasdaq and Russell 1000 about 0.25%, while the Dow and S&P edged higher. Those losses were recovered Wednesday (day 8). By then the Dow and S&P were up about 2.1% for the month, in line with Hirsch’s note that midterm Novembers are “climbing about 2% by the eighth trading day.” For the week, the midterm Nasdaq has gained about 0.6%, the Dow and S&P about 0.2–0.25%, and the two Russells about 0.1%. Wednesday is also Veterans Day, so the stock market is open but the bond market is closed. The mid-month dip Hirsch describes deepens the following week, with the 21-year averages bottoming on trading days 13–14 (November 18th–19th), before the rally into month-end that has left the indices up about 2–2.7% for November across all years and 2.6–3.5% in midterm years (led by the Nasdaq).
View original →BofA estimates global systematic positioning fell to ~$225B, its lowest since April, from ~$290B last week and ~$365B a month ago, as the volatility spike also forced vol control funds to de-risk. In terms of CTAs, BofA no longer lists a sell trigger for the S&P 500 (from ~−0.1% last week), as Thursday’s post-election reversal likely took CTAs’ remaining US equity longs to flat. No triggers were listed for the Nasdaq-100 either, while the Russell 2000’s buy trigger is now +5.4% away (from +1.8%). Positively, though, BofA is not looking for more selling from the systematic community in their base case with vol-control reloading offsetting more CTA selling: • They see roughly no net change in a flat market (from −$15B of selling last week), as vol control adding ~$12B about offsets CTA selling of about $13B. • +$11B of buying in an “up” market (BofA’s high-percentile path, roughly +4.1% for S&P 500 futures over five days this week; from +$37B last week), as CTA buying (~$16B) outweighs risk-parity selling (~$7B). • −$37B of selling in a “down” market (BofA’s low-percentile path, roughly −5.2% for S&P futures this week; from −$63B last week), almost all from CTAs (~$34B), with Europe and Asia leading. That’s the smallest down-market estimate in eight weeks, though, showing the impact of the cleaner positioning.
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