SPYS&P 500NeutralS&P 500

Today on

BofA’s institutional clients bought the dip last week while retail clients sold for a 4th straight week, as the S&P 500 fell 2.7%, its worst week since April 2025. ▪️ Institutions: +$6.1B, about $4B of it via equity ETFs (so broad buying into risk). ▪️ Retail: -$2.1B, dumping $3.4B of single stocks while still adding $1.4B of ETFs. ▪️ Hedge funds: small buyers for the 1st time in 4 weeks. Equity ETFs drew $5.3B, the 4th-largest week in BofA’s data, mostly into broad US large-cap index funds. So clients were buying the market, not picking names, while single stocks saw a 4th straight week of selling. But the retail dip-buying that has cushioned sell-offs since the April 2025 tariff shock so far is missing from this data. Per the CNBC article: Retail traders “have not been a ballast. We’ve talked a lot about how they do this ‘buy the dip’; they’re the support” for the broader market, Amy Wu Silverman, head of derivatives strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “Not only was that absent, it was going the other way.” “When you look at Thursday’s price action, it was kicked off by a lot of retail put buying. It was retail who got nervous and this sort of created a chain reaction with other aspects of the market,” Silverman said.

NVDANVIDIANeutralNVIDIA

Today on

Nvidia (NVDA) fell another 5.5% Tuesday, now down over 22% the past two weeks. https://t.co/SCbHPT22CF https://t.co/ltJlxKof47

NeutralSPYS&P 500S&P 500UVXYProShares Ultra VIX Short TermProShares Ultra VIX Short Term

Today on

The S&P 500 fell 0.4% Tuesday, but the VIX also fell 2.4%, extending Monday’s 22% drop. “Spot down, vol down” at that size is rare: just 4% of comparable S&P 500 down days since 1990, and the first since March 2025. ▪ It usually comes as fear drains after a spike: 69 of the 100 cases came with the VIX already at 19+. ▪ Seven came within three sessions of a 30%+ VIX jump, like this one, including China’s devaluation (2015), Brexit (2016) and Volmageddon (2018). ▪ The S&P 500 was higher a month later all seven times (avg. +4.2%) and three months later in six of seven (avg. +4.4%), vs. +0.8% and +2.4% for all days. ▪ The exception was 1990, ahead of Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait. Note: The VVIX also fell, but adding that to the analysis doesn't change things. Caveat: Small sample size.

SPYS&P 500BearishS&P 500

Today on

Citi’s earnings revision index was +0.02 in the week of October 30th, down from +0.06 the prior week (there was no reading the week before that), as its 20-week average continued to roll over, to about 0.16 from 0.18 two weeks earlier and 0.28 in mid-September. As I noted on October 25th, three of the four prior rollovers of about 0.8, 0.16 and 0.1 points in the 20-week average since 2021 (Jul ’21, Jun ’24, Sep ’25) were followed by declines of 25%, 8.5% and 9.1% (in 2023 the SPX declined first). At the time the index was down 2.5% from its October 6th record, and I said it was still too early to tell how much further (if any) the softening had to go. As of Friday, the SPX had fallen 5.7%.

SPYS&P 500NeutralS&P 500

Today on

As I mentioned in last Thursday's evening update, we saw the first 80% NYSE downside volume day since December 2025, ending the longest streak without one in at least 30 years, per BTIG’s Jonathan Krinsky via @dailychartbook's nightly email. In the 15 previous “first in 3+ months” cases since 1996 according to Krinsky's analysis: ▪ 11 saw at least one more 80% downside days within 30 sessions, and five saw five or more. ▪ The S&P 500 was lower on average one and two weeks later, and up just 0.3% a month later (higher 53% of the time). ▪ When five or more followed, it was higher 50 sessions later just once (avg. -6.9%). ▪ When fewer followed, it was higher 30 sessions later in 9 of 10 cases (avg. +3.5%). The 30-session window runs through December 18.