QQQNasdaqNeutralNasdaq

Today on

You have until 11:59 PM EST today. The Noble Update goes from $599 to $899 a year (and from $99 to $125 a month), and anyone who joins before then keeps today's price for as long as they stay a member. We've had a flood of new members this week because we're the PERFORMANCE guys. When the Nasdaq had its worst day in 18 months last week, our members were on the right side of it: our shorts are down an average of 45%, and our long/short spread is running at 60%+. Hedge-fund-level research for less than $2 a day from someone with 45+ years in the markets is what democratizing finance looks like. Join before 11:59 PM EST tonight to beat the 50% price increase: https://t.co/xGUYjsBo3Q

QQQNasdaqNeutralNasdaqAMZNAmazonBearishAmazonGOOGAlphabetBearishAlphabetGOOGLAlphabetBearishAlphabetMETABearish

Yesterday on

Big Tech turned the best businesses on the planet into a game of capex chicken. They went from cash machines with pristine balance sheets to "my capital spending is bigger than your capital spending," and none of them could slow down without losing the race to the others. That was my warning back in February, and they've been driving the car into the wall together ever since: Free cash flow has turned NEGATIVE at Amazon, Alphabet and Meta, and they're paying for the race with debt and new stock. The 4 biggest spenders still poured $202 BILLION into capex last quarter, more than double what they spent a year ago. Last week, the Mag 7 lost more than $1 TRILLION in a single session, and the Nasdaq had its worst day in 18 months. NONE of this should come as a surprise to you.

QQQNasdaqBearishNasdaq

2d ago on

More than $10B poured into Nasdaq 100 and semiconductor ETFs in a single week, right into a falling tech market. If you're a bull, that's the LAST thing you want to see. Bottoms form when people finally give up, and this crowd is still buying every dip with both hands. Now add the calendar: it's November, and a fund manager who's behind for the year isn't going to stand up and take more risk, so every leg down invites MORE selling. And for the AI names, it gets worse… Their stock price is their cost of capital, and it's rising at the exact moment they need more money. Tech is in a bear market, and in a bear market you're either short or flat. We positioned for this early, and we're keeping our foot on the gas.

BearishQQQNasdaqNasdaqCRWVCoreWeave, Inc.CoreWeave, Inc.ORCLOracleOracle

1w ago on

Sam Altman just ran out of buyers at his price, and the AI bubble is GAME OVER. The money that carried this entire boom is pulling back, and the tech bros buying this dip are about to learn what every homebuyer learned in 2006. Watch this TERRIFIC video from @JayMartinBC comparing AI to the housing bubble. His point is that the housing bust really started in 2006, while prices were still at record highs, because borrowers paid off their old loans by refinancing against a higher price. When the gains shrank from the mid-teens to single digits, the refinancing stopped working and the loans started going bad. OpenAI runs on the same engine. It loses billions every year and pays yesterday's bills by raising money at a higher price, so the only number that matters is how much higher each new price comes in. Every time OpenAI has been priced since early 2024, the new mark came in 67% to 91% above the one before it. This month they went out to raise $30B at $1.4T, a 64% markup, and investors pushed back on the price, so it came down to $1.25T. Then on Friday we learned some of them cut what they were willing to put in, so the round shrank by a third to about $20B, and the first close is expected to come in below even that. One person familiar with the round said every earlier raise was a frenzy and this one landed with a thud. The markup just fell to 47% with a third less money behind it. The valuation is still going up while the speed is breaking, and that's how housing looked in 2006. What worries me most is who they go after next: OpenAI first pitched $1.4T to private wealth clients, and even they pushed back. Now the reports say the gap could be filled later with another offering to wealthy individuals at $1.25T. In 45 years I've watched the individual investor end up as the last buyer in every bubble, and that's who they're coming for now. OpenAI is also the customer at the end of the entire AI chain. Oracle's backlog leans on a $300B OpenAI contract and CoreWeave has up to $22.4B, and both borrowed heavily to build for it. When the end buyer struggles to raise money, the suppliers who borrowed against its promises feel it first. And the collateral is WORSE this time. A house in 2006 was still a house 10 years later, but the chips inside these data centers are outdated in about 3 years while the debt used to buy them runs far longer. The market is already pricing it. On Friday the Nasdaq 100 fell 3.5% for its worst day since June, and the chip index dropped 7.2%. This is why we shorted CoreWeave at $107 and Oracle at $189.97, and why we pressed the CoreWeave short at $81.58 earlier this month. CoreWeave is now down 49% from our entry and Oracle is down 31%. All 12 of our scored shorts are winners, and our long/short spread is 70%. And don't buy this dip. I'd trim anything that depends on OpenAI paying its bills, and I'd own gold and businesses that generate real cash today. If you want the names I'm investing in, join The Noble Update. IT'S GAME OVER Are you listening? https://t.co/p38GgcCjci

QQQNasdaqNeutralNasdaqALABAstera LabsBearishAstera LabsCRWVCoreWeave, Inc.BearishCoreWeave, Inc.

2w ago on

The AI trade is cracking. The Nasdaq had its worst day since June on Thursday, and the chip stocks have now lost more than 26% from their June high as Wall Street finally starts asking whether all that AI spending will ever pay off. I’ve been asking that question all year, and our shorts have been getting paid for it. CoreWeave is 49.3% below where I called the short, and Astera Labs is 40.6% below. Across every call with a result so far, 20 of 24 are winners and the spread between our longs and our shorts is 70.4%, or 128% ANNUALIZED. Every scoreboard also has a name at the bottom, though, and right now ours is one I’d buy again today. Here's why we’re reiterating a long that hasn’t worked yet, and the election on November 3 is a big part of why I’m sticking with it: https://t.co/8bSidPKqgX