SPYS&P 500BearishS&P 500CSCOCiscoNeutralCiscoNVDANVIDIABearishNVIDIA

5d ago on

Nvidia is now 8% of the S&P 500, double what Cisco was at the top of the dot com bubble, and it's making the EXACT same mistake. Cisco lent money to the telecoms buying its gear in 2000 because they couldn't pay for it any other way, and when those telecoms went bust, Cisco lost 89% and the S&P 500 lost half its value. Nvidia is doing the same thing today, guaranteeing its customers' leases and buying stakes in the very companies that buy its chips. The more it sells, the more it's on the hook when those customers can't pay. THIS IS THE BIGGEST MISALLOCATION OF CAPITAL IN HISTORY

SPYS&P 500NeutralS&P 500

1w ago on

The S&P 500 went NOWHERE in October. Energy was up 11.8% and tech was down 2.7% through Thursday, and we were long energy and short tech the whole time. Our long/short spread is now 70.1% (119% annualized), and all 12 of our scored shorts are winners. If all you owned was the index, you got a flat month and MISSED every bit of it. The Noble Update is the #1 place for alpha. CAN YOU AFFORD TO MISS THIS?

SPYS&P 500BearishS&P 500KMBKimberly-ClarkNeutralKimberly-ClarkSPCXSpaceXNeutralSpaceXSPGIS&P GlobalNeutralS&P GlobalWMTWalmartNeutralWalmart

1w ago on

The credit market just cut off the weakest companies in America US junk bond sales dropped from $51B in September to roughly $7B through the first 3 weeks of October. At least 7 companies pulled more than $5B of bond and loan deals in the US and Europe this month because the yields investors demanded were more than they were willing to pay, and yields on CCC-rated debt just hit a 4-year high. Now look at who’s still getting money: Walmart and Kimberly-Clark raised about $8B of high-grade debt in a single day right in the middle of all this, so the window is wide open for quality and slammed shut for the WEAKEST borrowers. When you open up the CCC bucket, you find cable and satellite, wireline, tech and media, which are exactly the businesses AI keeps chewing through while SpaceX pushes into telecom. The credit market is doing what credit markets are supposed to do, and it’s sorting the companies that can still borrow from the ones that are about to pay up for it, deal by deal. Stocks haven’t caught up yet. The 10 biggest names make up roughly 40% of the S&P 500, so anyone buying the index today is making one giant concentrated bet on the AI buildout. They’re making it just days after S&P Global counted 146 delayed or canceled data center projects and warned that the delays could weigh on the credit quality of the buildout itself. This AI boom is dot com and 2008 merged together: an equity story running on narrative dominance, funded with borrowed money. I want to be positioned for the shakeout well before the index investor figures out which side of it he’s on. And I’m excited about it, because a market this nervous and this top-heavy dumps good businesses right alongside the bad ones, and the gap between the winners and the losers blows wide open. The investors willing to do the work on individual names are the ones who get paid from that gap over the next few years. My good friend Leo Nelissen published a terrific piece this morning on exactly how to find those names, including the 4 questions he runs every single holding through before it makes his watchlist. Read it before you put another dollar into the index: https://t.co/9AhXhlRbpR

SPYS&P 500NeutralS&P 500

2w ago on

We just added our 20th and final speaker to the summit, and he's a 25-year Wall Street veteran with both the CMT and the CFA. @FrankCappelleri is joining Louise Yamada, John Roque, Rich Ross, David Keller, Brian Shannon and the rest of our lineup at the Best Technical Ideas Online Summit next week. Frank worked with institutional clients as a sales trader and technical analyst before he founded CappThesis, and you've probably seen him on CNBC or Bloomberg TV. On April 24 he set a 7,680 upside target on the S&P 500, and the index hit it on August 4. With Frank on board, the lineup is complete, and on October 27 and 28 these 20 technicians are handing you 60 actionable, money-making ideas over 2 days. It runs 10 AM to 4 PM ET, with replays if you can't watch live. Grab your seat for the technical Event OF THE YEAR: https://t.co/Ah4ySJGvg3.

SPYS&P 500NeutralS&P 500

3w ago on

Energy makes up 3.5% of the S&P 500, yet it's about to pay out 20% of all the cash the index returns to shareholders. And the crowd still won't touch it. My friend Robert Mullin of Marathon Resource Advisors has been all over this for years, and he walked me through where he's finding the best opportunities right now: - Why the back end of the oil curve just started moving, and what it says about inventories heading into peak demand season - The oil service giant hiding a real AI business that could be worth more than the whole company - Why the AI capex boom looks like a dead ringer for the shale boom - The Persian Gulf shortage that could hit the food chain within 3 to 6 months - Where he's buying producers at 2 times cash flow with 10% dividends I'm long Robert Mullin and short Scam Altman. Very timely, watch it here: https://t.co/fkSBA4RBeY