Called $NVDA bullish on Oct 27, 2023: $NVDA rose 133% in 5 months.
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Founder of Niles Investment Management, Tech Nerd, Bad Tennis Player, Proud Dad. Posts are for information purposes only & never investment advice.
Cite asCryptoQuant has tracked the directional calls on SPCX by @DanielTNiles on X since Jan 2018: not yet scored on SPCX (as of Nov 11, 2026).
Other assets covered (39)
2 SPCX calls on record, a thin history.
Relative view by default: fewer than 30 SPCX calls or days on record.
Sentiment timeline shows relative sentiment within this analyst's history. A perma-bull showing 8 bullish : 2 bearish in a bear market sets that as their baseline. If you notice any errors, claim @DanielTNiles to submit corrections.
Called $NVDA bullish on Oct 27, 2023: $NVDA rose 133% in 5 months.
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Post all the negative AI related news recently, $SPCX revs beat by 14% w/ AI beating by 19%. Q4 capex guide almost 90% above consensus while Q1 revs guided 57% above. Also $SMCI +pre w/ revs 27% above consensus. My conviction of a near-term AI rally continues to grow. As I posted on 10/15 on the overall AI trade following the bludgeoning in the Kospi, “The bottom line is even if we have seen THE TOP, the odds based on history are high for at least a short-term rally.” As opposed to repeating the stats from my 10/15 post on the Kospi (Korean stock market dominated by memory) or this past Sunday on the SOX (semiconductor index), I think the following is worthwhile. Assume I am wrong about Agentic AI driving infrastructure growth into at least 2027. The funding issues for the neo-clouds, slowing revenue growth at OAI/Anthropic and bi-partisan pushback against datacenters has to be considered. Assume THE TOP in the AI trade was on 6/22 which was the peak in the SOX. Looking at the performance from the peak of internet bubble on 3/24/00 to its bottom on 10/9/22, the S&P decline was 49% with the SOX down a staggering 83%! But even during that punishing decline during the bursting of the internet bubble, the S&P saw 7 rallies that averaged 14% each while the SOX using those same dates saw rallies of 28%! During each of those advances most investors wanted to believe we had seen the bottom. The problem was the 8 declines averaged 17% for the S&P and 34% for the SOX. If I use the more recent decline during the GFC from 10/9/07-3/9/09, the S&P fell 57% while the SOX dropped 66%. But this also had 11 rallies that averaged 10% each for the S&P and 11% for the SOX. The problem was the twelve declines averaged 15% for the S&P and 19% for the SOX using the same dates. In summary whether you are an AI bull or bear, I do not believe it makes a difference for positioning in the near-term. The AI infrastructure trade by the metrics discussed on 10/15 or 10/18 around the semis looks oversold. In addition, a good bearish investor is open to the idea that they may be early, just wrong or about to have a bear market rally. Maybe the SpaceX earnings and Super Micro positive pre-announcement today are the trigger to start the next AI related rally regardless of whether we have seen THE TOP or not.
View original →Last wk, $KBWB -1% despite low bank earnings expectations. AI was hit despite beat/raise from $ASML -8%, $TSM -9% due to AI financing concerns w/ AirTrunk IPO delayed, debt getting hit w/ $CRWV -25%, Anthropic rev growth slowing & valuation looking ~$1.5T vs $2T. Last Sunday I wrote that I was circumspect on the market. The KBWB (bank ETF) was sending a very different message than the S&P. “Any further sell-off despite trading at oversold levels last week would not be a great sign.” On Tuesday I posted on the KBWB getting hit despite these low expectations on mixed earnings results and therefore remaining circumspect. The Magnificent 7 eventually closed the week down 3.2% with the SOX Index (Semiconductors) down 11.4% driving the S&P down 1.9%. There was rising angst on the financing part of the AI trade later in the week. This was despite 5/10/30yr yields going down 15-17 bps last week despite hotter than expected CPI/PPI. After yields initially surged, this large drop was unexpected but this also coincided with the equity market sell-off from Wednesday through Friday. Massive external capital is needed to fund the AI infrastructure buildout. Therefore AI stocks got clobbered last week on questions around: 1) ability to raise AI public equity – Airtrunk IPO delayed till 2027 following the pulling of Firmus IPO last week 2) cost of AI debt increasing- CDS costs surging and face value of debt getting hit driving the yield to 15% for Coreweave debt 3) AI revenue growth slowing from ~145% q/q in Q2 to ~45% in Q3 for Anthropic 4) AI valuation now seen at closer to $1.5 trillion vs $2.0 trillion for some investors following Anthropic’s investor day 5) Gartner stating they expect greater than 80% of neoclouds to fold or face restructuring by 2030 6) Chinese DRAM company CXMT (-12% last week) ramping 4F technology before year-end being a threat to the current big 3 of $MU -15% last week, Samsung -18% and Hynix -24%. As for other important macro moves last week, US Oil was +10% last week with the US dollar down 37 cents but Gold declined 1% anyway. Thursday I posted the details around the historical precedent for a rally in the Korean Kospi Index over the following day and week given its extremely oversold levels. While the Kospi did rally on Friday +2.0%, the SOX Index was hit for 3.8% anyway and was down 11.4% for the week vs the Kospi -14.5%. While the Kospi, driven by the declines in memory stocks, is now down 40% from its 52 week high and is up 34% year-to-date, the SOX is down only 24% from its 52wh and is up 57% ytd. Looking forward, the first two of the Magnificent 7 report CQ3 earnings next week on Wednesday. For $META, while I see a beat and raise quarter, the stock is probably going to react to initial expense and capex guidance for 2027 coming in high, especially given the strong recent stock performance. The costs needed to support their hit Agentic product Muse and their recently released frontier LLM models, is likely to occur before their monetization. For $TSLA, the videos of their new “flying” Roadster were mind blowing. This is just a reminder why engineering god Elon gets mind blowing valuations for his companies. I also believe the Roadster is a physical example of why $SPCX (which also reports next week) buying Tesla makes sense. In summary, the recent correction made sense for reconciling some of the discrepancies between the bond market and equity markets. But I believe there is still a lot of infrastructure growth ahead to support the proliferation of personal Agents. As a result, I think it makes sense to invest some of the excess cash levels that I have been recommending. The SOX is now down 8 days in a row for a loss of 15.7% through Friday. The last time the index fell for 8 or more consecutive trading days ended on Friday October 10th 2008 for a loss of 19.8%, during the Global Financial Crisis. It then bounced for just one day the following Monday for 9.7% before continuing to much lower levels. The AI trade may be having some funding concerns today but it is not as bad as during the GFC. All the best in the week ahead.
View original →Last wk, S&P/Nas/Mag7 were +1.2%/+1.7%/+4.0% despite oil +4% & bond ylds +7bps on Iran flare-up. 2 days remain during this seasonally favorable time from the last 3 trading days of June through first 9 days of July. Earning season starts w/ big banks on Tuesday. As I first posted about on June 28th and reiterated on July 5th, the seasonality is historically very favorable from the last three trading days of June through the first nine trading days of July during which the S&P/Nasdaq have advanced 1.6%/2.5% and been up 78% of the time since 1985. The S&P/Nasdaq is up 3.0%/3.6% during the first 10 trading days of this time period in 2026 already. But for the heart of the AI trade, the Semiconductor (SOX) Index is down 7.0% during these last 10 trading days on fears of a “speed bump” that I have been posting about since 6/28. For the AI trade going forward, two separate thoughts with two different implications are beginning to coalesce in my mind. The first thought is that AI revenue growth for the leading LLM models is likely to hit a “speed bump” and slow in the September quarter. Last week, $SPCX and $META released new LLM models that both closed much of the gap with the leading edge models from OpenAI and Anthropic. But Meta plans to price their model at roughly 1/4th the cost of the two leaders with SpaceX aggressive as well. This is particularly relevant as companies switched from token maxing in March to token minimization in June. As an example, the CEO of Coinbase posted on June 26th, “How to keep AI spend flat while token usage grows exponentially... Putting this into practice has cut our AI spend nearly in half, while our token usage continues to grow.” Sam Altman on Thursday: “we have heard enterprises on their concerns about AI costs, and 5.6 sol is a huge step forward for dollars-per-task, as are terra and luna”. But on a positive note, two more public cloud providers have been recently added to the four that already existed of $AMZN, $GOOGL, $MSFT and $ORCL. SpaceX in the past month raised over $100B in equity plus debt and plans to spend hundreds of billions to attack the $28.5 trillion TAM they talked about in their IPO prospectus. News surrounding Meta last week seems to imply that they are launching a cloud offering not because they have excess compute but so 1) they can double their compute spend from 7 MegaWatts in 2026 to 14 MegaWatts in 2027 and 2) have capacity to sell their Muse Spark LLM. So in summary, with this seasonally favorable period of time for the overall market coming soon to a close, I believe cutting back excess exposure is prudent. Reaction by investors on Tuesday to bank earnings which should be strong, may give us a good tell as to the risk vs reward at current levels over the shorter-term. As for the AI trade, I believe selectivity is key as we work our way through the “speed bump” and the positive implications of 4 aggressive public cloud vendors now becoming six versus the negatives of token maxing in March turning to token minimization in June. All the best in the week ahead.
View original →Last Saturday, I posted my “speedbump” concerns. This past wk, the negative news flow escalated quickly. The Semi Index was -7.9% despite $MU beating EPS by 16% & guiding 21% higher than consensus. Micron finished the wk -0.1% while S&P -2.0%, Nasdaq -4.6% & Mag7 -5.4%. The news flow included: 1) $SPCX $20B bond offering & signing Reflection AI 2) $MSFT potentially hosting lower cost DeepSeek 3) GLM-5.2 being a credible alternative to Anthropic 4) Star AI researchers leaving $GOOG for competitors 5) $AAPL raising prices ~17-25% due to memory prices 6) US restrictions on US LLM model releases 7) Investment ramps from Samsung & Hynix 8) Stock market circuit breakers triggered in S. Korea 9) OpenAI potentially delaying their IPO into 2027 10) Big Private Credit redemptions at $APO $MS $ARES On a positive note: 1) Headline PCE/core of 4.1%/3.4% were roughly inline 2) WTI Oil fell 10% to $69 3) 2/10yr bond yields declined 8 bps each My concern is that equity markets were bad over the past week despite oil declining substantially along with bond yields. But a lot of position unwinding also occurred with the Morgan Stanley Momentum Long Index down 4.2% last week while their Short Index was up 3.2%. This upcoming trading week is shortened with the July 4th holiday with no major earnings reports but several important economic reports could move rates and therefore the market. The JOLTS survey, non-farm payrolls report and to a lesser extent the ISM report could have an outsized impact given lighter than normal trading volumes. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s appearance at the ECB symposium on Wednesday is also likely to be scrutinized for clues around future Fed policy. From a seasonality standpoint, while not as famous as the Santa Claus rally at year-end, statistically we are entering a strong period for stocks. This is probably caused by the inflow of funds into 401K plans at mid-year. The "12-Day Midyear Rally" as talked about by @AlmanacTrader encompasses the last three trading days of June and the first nine trading days of July. Since 1985, Nasdaq has gained 2.5% and has been up a solid 78% of the time. Having said that, it will be interesting to see how the market responds to the flare up in hostilities in Iran this weekend. In summary, my short-term “speedbump” concerns outlined last week in my posts on 6/20 and followed up on 6/22 remain about the upcoming mega-cap tech earnings season that starts in late July due to: 1) Token minimization 2) Competitive low cost open-sourced LLM models 3) Rising semiconductor cost impact on Q3 guidance Longer-term, I am hopeful for a solid finish to 2026 due to: 1) Over 25% EPS growth for the S&P 2) Advent of Agentic AI requiring 10-100x more tokens 3) Torturous winding down of the Iran war 4) Kevin Warsh pushing back on rate hike expectations But a series of short-terms make up the long-term and remaining flexible in thinking is important. All the best in the week ahead and Happy July 4th!
View original →As discussed on @CNBC this morning, I expected a near-term “speed bump” in my Saturday post. Did we hit the edge of it today? Did the $SPCX (down 16% today) $20B bond offering and signing of Reflection AI remind investors there is another hyperscale competitor now that also needs funding? Did investors get spooked that the $MSFT CEO on Sunday in the WSJ was considering diversifying its ecosystem? In later media reports this seemed to include potentially hosting the much cheaper DeepSeek models given the rapidly escalating AI bills for customers. Did Nobel prize winner John Jumper leaving $GOOGL for Anthropic remind investors of the incredible competition and cost to pursue AGI? Likely in partial reaction to the above, today the 5 big hyperscalers that are spending over $700B in capex this year ( $GOOGL $AMZN $MSFT $ORCL $META ) and are increasingly selling bonds or equity to fund it were down on average 4% bringing their ytd declines to 7% on average. Meanwhile the Semiconductor Index, whose companies they are spending that money on, was up 2% today bringing the ytd gains to 107%. A near-term test of these gains as I discussed on Saturday will be the reaction to $MU results on Wednesday.
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