Called $NVDA bullish on Oct 27, 2023: $NVDA rose 133% in 5 months.
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Founder of Niles Investment Management, Tech Nerd, Bad Tennis Player, Proud Dad. Posts are for information purposes only & never investment advice.
Cite asCryptoQuant has tracked the directional calls on ORCL by @DanielTNiles on X since Jan 2018: not yet scored on ORCL (as of Nov 11, 2026).
Other assets covered (39)
3 ORCL calls on record, a thin history.
Relative view by default: fewer than 30 ORCL calls or days on record.
Sentiment timeline shows relative sentiment within this analyst's history. A perma-bull showing 8 bullish : 2 bearish in a bear market sets that as their baseline. If you notice any errors, claim @DanielTNiles to submit corrections.
Called $NVDA bullish on Oct 27, 2023: $NVDA rose 133% in 5 months.
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Last wk, Muse from $Meta (+12.9%) & co-Pilot overhaul by $MSFT (+4.5%) drove AI infrastructure strength (SOX Index +6.3%) led by processor vendors, $INTC/$AMD/$ARM all +13%. Agentic AI flips GPU:CPU ratio from ~8:1 to ~1:4. SOX+Meta+Microsoft was all the S&P gain. WTI dropped 7.9% last wk while Brent was +0.4% but bond yields surged 10-17 bps across the 3m/30yr curve hitting levels not seen since July-2007 for the 10 year and June-2004 for the 30 year. Yield drivers included: 1) multiple Fed governors messaging higher-for-longer, 2) strong economic data like PMI & capital goods, 3) AI financing concerns following $ORCL (-7% last week) invoking force majeure for their New Mexico datacenter for OpenAI, and 5) weak treasury auction. One of the big use cases for Muse seems to be in cutting monthly bills. This renewed disruption fear for businesses with friction or inertia including telecom $VZ ( -2% last week), insurance $KIE -4%, banking $KBWB -2%, wealth management $SCHW -6%, shopping comparison platforms $AMZN -2% and banned Muse, travel $BKNG -2%, ride-share $UBER -1%, fitness memberships $PLNT -14%, ticket resale $STUB -8% and digital advertising- $GOOGL -2%. These names above have a median return of -1% year-to-date with half of them down ytd. In the disruption fears category above, Google is the one that I am most bullish on. I believe they are very close to launching a new model that will challenge the frontier leaders of Anthropic and OpenAI. In addition I believe all LLM companies will launch their own competitor to Meta Muse including Google. OpenAI DevDay 2026, is taking place on Tuesday. I ultimately believe that consumers will use an AI agent sitting on their smartphone from $AAPL or the Android ecosystem from Google while enterprises will default to the "safety" of co-Pilot on M365 from Microsoft. I believe the AI agent will pick the underlying LLM most suited for the task and commoditize that layer with the value accruing to the infrastructure layer. On a fundamental basis, CQ3 earnings appear solid, especially for AI infrastructure companies. Implied S&P revenue/EPS for Q3 remains strong at 14%/35% y/y with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast at 5%. The question will be how companies react to widely expected beat and raise quarters. Q2 results were not taken well with the Nasdaq -3% and Semi Index -21% during the month of July. The stock reaction to widely expected strong quarterly results/guidance from $MU on Wednesday should give us some clues. From a bigger picture standpoint, the R2K, which is the most sensitive to rates, was down 0.8% last week. While I am impressed by the S&P, the gains were narrow and powered by the AI infrastructure names I am particularly bullish on: microprocessors within semiconductors on the advent of Agentic AI (see initial post on 3/31) and Meta (see initial post on 9/7.) Microsoft which I posted about last Sunday is also a favored name as a “safe” way for corporations to access AI though their 27% OpenAI ownership concerns me. Looking back at history, 20% or greater drawdowns in the S&P have been preceded by or accompanied by the combination of 1) surging bond yields, 2) surging oil prices and 3) Fed tightening cycle. This includes: 1) 1973–1974 OPEC Oil Embargo and Stagflation, 2) 1980–1982 Volcker Rate Shock, 3) 1990 Gulf War, 4) 2007–2009 Global Financial Crisis, and 5) 2022 Post-Pandemic Inflation Crisis. It is possible that the massive AI infrastructure spend & resultant S&P EPS growth of 35% y/y can offset this. It certainly has so far. However, the three middle episodes above had the following positive technological developments as well: 1) the PC revolution started in the late 1970s, 2) the Internet in the mid-1990s and 3) smartphones in the late 2000s. As a result, until bond yields stop their surge, I am remaining very selective on the individual names & sectors I favor. I am therefore watching closely the datacenter pushouts, the developments in Iran and the impact on oil prices. All the best in the week ahead.
View original →Last wk, S&P/Nas/Mag7 were +1.2%/+1.7%/+4.0% despite oil +4% & bond ylds +7bps on Iran flare-up. 2 days remain during this seasonally favorable time from the last 3 trading days of June through first 9 days of July. Earning season starts w/ big banks on Tuesday. As I first posted about on June 28th and reiterated on July 5th, the seasonality is historically very favorable from the last three trading days of June through the first nine trading days of July during which the S&P/Nasdaq have advanced 1.6%/2.5% and been up 78% of the time since 1985. The S&P/Nasdaq is up 3.0%/3.6% during the first 10 trading days of this time period in 2026 already. But for the heart of the AI trade, the Semiconductor (SOX) Index is down 7.0% during these last 10 trading days on fears of a “speed bump” that I have been posting about since 6/28. For the AI trade going forward, two separate thoughts with two different implications are beginning to coalesce in my mind. The first thought is that AI revenue growth for the leading LLM models is likely to hit a “speed bump” and slow in the September quarter. Last week, $SPCX and $META released new LLM models that both closed much of the gap with the leading edge models from OpenAI and Anthropic. But Meta plans to price their model at roughly 1/4th the cost of the two leaders with SpaceX aggressive as well. This is particularly relevant as companies switched from token maxing in March to token minimization in June. As an example, the CEO of Coinbase posted on June 26th, “How to keep AI spend flat while token usage grows exponentially... Putting this into practice has cut our AI spend nearly in half, while our token usage continues to grow.” Sam Altman on Thursday: “we have heard enterprises on their concerns about AI costs, and 5.6 sol is a huge step forward for dollars-per-task, as are terra and luna”. But on a positive note, two more public cloud providers have been recently added to the four that already existed of $AMZN, $GOOGL, $MSFT and $ORCL. SpaceX in the past month raised over $100B in equity plus debt and plans to spend hundreds of billions to attack the $28.5 trillion TAM they talked about in their IPO prospectus. News surrounding Meta last week seems to imply that they are launching a cloud offering not because they have excess compute but so 1) they can double their compute spend from 7 MegaWatts in 2026 to 14 MegaWatts in 2027 and 2) have capacity to sell their Muse Spark LLM. So in summary, with this seasonally favorable period of time for the overall market coming soon to a close, I believe cutting back excess exposure is prudent. Reaction by investors on Tuesday to bank earnings which should be strong, may give us a good tell as to the risk vs reward at current levels over the shorter-term. As for the AI trade, I believe selectivity is key as we work our way through the “speed bump” and the positive implications of 4 aggressive public cloud vendors now becoming six versus the negatives of token maxing in March turning to token minimization in June. All the best in the week ahead.
View original →As discussed on @CNBC this morning, I expected a near-term “speed bump” in my Saturday post. Did we hit the edge of it today? Did the $SPCX (down 16% today) $20B bond offering and signing of Reflection AI remind investors there is another hyperscale competitor now that also needs funding? Did investors get spooked that the $MSFT CEO on Sunday in the WSJ was considering diversifying its ecosystem? In later media reports this seemed to include potentially hosting the much cheaper DeepSeek models given the rapidly escalating AI bills for customers. Did Nobel prize winner John Jumper leaving $GOOGL for Anthropic remind investors of the incredible competition and cost to pursue AGI? Likely in partial reaction to the above, today the 5 big hyperscalers that are spending over $700B in capex this year ( $GOOGL $AMZN $MSFT $ORCL $META ) and are increasingly selling bonds or equity to fund it were down on average 4% bringing their ytd declines to 7% on average. Meanwhile the Semiconductor Index, whose companies they are spending that money on, was up 2% today bringing the ytd gains to 107%. A near-term test of these gains as I discussed on Saturday will be the reaction to $MU results on Wednesday.
View original →Congratulations to @ElonMusk on becoming the world's first trillionaire! A reminder that no matter where you started, immigrant or not, America is truly the country that with hard work, brilliance and some luck, your dreams can come true. Last wk, oil dropped 6% to $85 with 2 yr bond yields down 7 bps. Clearly there is optimism on a deal with Iran finally being reached after dozens of posts since the war began saying a deal is close. As I have said for a long-time, upcoming mid-terms combined with horrible polling numbers is a powerful motivator for the US administration to extricate us from this war. This drove S&P/Nasdaq +0.6%/0.7% last week. Also the market did go up 0.3% on Friday, absorbing the $75B in IPO supply from the $SPCX IPO which was encouraging. The Russell confirmed this weekend that SpaceX, which rose 19% from its IPO price on Friday, will be added to their indexes on June 26th. This should drive nearly $3B in passive inflows with additional inflows from those that will closet index that are benchmarked to the Russell. (I posted about the SpaceX IPO in detail last week for those that want more analysis.) I posted about my circumspection last Sunday (6/7) into the $AAPL analyst event on Monday given the run-up into the event and the $ORCL earnings on Wednesday given a new CFO that would probably want to set a low bar. Both were even more disappointing than I expected. For $AAPL (down 5.3% last week), only a beta version of Siri with AI will be initially available and only in English and only in the US. Having said that, I think this should be the last of the timeline disappointments which have been ongoing over the past two years. For those of us stuck in the Apple ecosystem due to sunk costs, I believe a foldable form factor (Samsung has had one since 2019!) with an AI enabled Siri (AI available since 2024 for Android users) should drive a tremendous upcycle next year. For that reason, from wherever the near-term bottom is on the stock, I believe it will outperform the S&P from there through year-end and next year. As for $ORCL (down 13.8% last week), capex of $55.7B in FY26 (May) was guided including pre-buys to $90-95B (+66%) in FY27 with $40B of capital raising expected. But revenue guidance was only reaffirmed for FY27 which was the kiss of death for the stock. Investors want to see positive ROI for the hyperscalers if spending is going up. I also believe SpaceX going public focused investors on the fact that there is now an additional player in the AI capex race. SpaceX said they will need to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to reach their goals. As Larry Page said, "I would rather go bankrupt than lose the AI race." The other four major players in the AI LLM race were all down last week ($AMZN -3.0%, $MSFT -6.2%, $GOOGL -2.4%, $META -4.4%.) The Semiconductor Index though was up 9.4% last week which is where the hyperscaler spending above which is growing over 70% in 2026 is all going. I am bullish through year-end for the same reasons I have been citing for a while: 1) S&P earnings are expected to increase 25% this year driven by the advent of Agentic AI which is more than 1996+97+98 combined during the internet buildout, 2) I believe oil prices will come down due to the US exiting the Iran war and 3) new Fed Chairman Warsh is likely to push back against calls to raise rates. Given the upcoming Fed meeting this week which will be Warsh’s first as Chairman, this opinion will be put to the test. All the best in the week ahead.
View original →After shrugging off $AVGO -12.6% on Thursday, the strong jobs report drove the 2yr yld +10bps to the highest levels since early 2025 & S&P -2.6% on Fri. For the wk, S&P/Nas/SOXX/Mag7 were -2.6%/-4.7%/-4.7%/-5.8% despite oil -3% to $91. This is what I posted on X on last Sunday night “Over the near-term, the overall market at some point will need to take a breather from increasingly overbought technical conditions. After nine straight weekly gains, the S&P is now up 19% from its recent closing low on March 30th. But I feel like any losses will be contained to the typical ~5% pullback which is typically seen three to four times per year.” After being up for nine straight weeks, the S&P went from an all-time closing high on Tuesday June 2nd and 14-day RSI of 75 to an RSI of 49 on Friday June 5th and down 3.0% from that Tuesday level. During the internet infrastructure buildout between December 31, 1994 and the peak on March 10, 2000, the S&P tripled, the Nasdaq went up 6.7x and the SOXX Index advanced 9.5x. The S&P during this time had its 14-day RSI cross below 70 (overbought level) fifty times. 36% of the time, that day was the low point before it crossed back above 70 again. 42% of the time the low was reached within 2 trading days and 62% within three days. The average was 10 trading days to hit a short-term low and down 2.5% on average from the overbought level before the advance started to the next overbought reading. Next week, there will be several potential market moving events. The $AAPL WWDC is on Monday. With the stock price surge into this event, a sell the news reaction would not be surprising much like with recent tech results. But I am bullish longer-term given after a 2 year wait we should finally get an AI infused iPhone. I am also very bullish on the larger form factor of a foldable phone that has driven major upgrade cycles in the past. Samsung introduced a foldable in 2019. CPI on Wednesday will be closely watched along with how bond yields react. $ORCL results are also that day which should be solid given recent commentary from major customer OpenAI as well as related hyper-scaler cloud results. Having said that, a new CFO may want to set very achievable initial FY27 guidance that could disappoint. The ECB is likely to raise rates on Thursday since being on hold after cutting rates in June of 2025 to 2.0%. Commentary will likely set the bar for the Fed in the following week. Over the long-term I remain bullish given: 1) S&P earnings are expected to increase 25% this year driven by the advent of Agentic AI, 2) I believe oil prices will come down to the $80ish level given the political toll it is extracting on the US administration every day that the Strait of Hormuz is closed, and 3) new Fed Chairman Warsh is likely to push back against calls to raise rates. I view this recent pullback as well needed to work off the recent froth versus marking "the top." All the best in the week ahead.
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