Called $NVDA bullish on Oct 27, 2023: $NVDA rose 133% in 5 months.
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Founder of Niles Investment Management, Tech Nerd, Bad Tennis Player, Proud Dad. Posts are for information purposes only & never investment advice.
accuracy score 60.9 on NVDA over 62 NVDA calls · 963 days of data · rank 20 of 66 NVDA analysts (top 30.3%) · v20r-multi-sparsepen-strong-ss12m-20261012, computed Nov 11, 2026 · Methodology →
Cite asCryptoQuant has tracked 62 directional calls on NVDA by @DanielTNiles on X since Jan 2018: ranked #20 of 66 analysts scored on NVDA by accuracy (as of Nov 11, 2026).
Other assets covered (39)
Absolute view by default: Dan Niles states bull / bear plainly (92% of directional calls are outright).
Sentiment timeline shows relative sentiment within this analyst's history. A perma-bull showing 8 bullish : 2 bearish in a bear market sets that as their baseline. If you notice any errors, claim @DanielTNiles to submit corrections.
Called $NVDA bullish on Oct 27, 2023: $NVDA rose 133% in 5 months.
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Last wk, S&P +1.2% & hit new ATH. 10/30yr ylds down 2-3bps despite WTI +1%. Impressive given semis -4% w/ $MU -4% despite solid earnings. Negatives were OAI actual ARR rev of $50B vs prior $70B belief & pulling of $NVDA backed Firmus neocloud IPO. USD +$0.23. Breadth remained poor with just 35% of the S&P above its 50dma (though this was up from 25% at the end of the prior week.) The heavy weight Magnificent 7 did their part up 1.6% on average during the week. But their small cap brethren in the R2K declined 0.9%. Different asset classes and different segments of the equity markets are sending mixed messages. On the positive side, the 10-year auction cleared at a lower 5.30% than the 5.32% it was trading at right before it closed. Dealers took only 2.5%. There was real demand at this rate which makes me more bullish on the sectors of the market that reached oversold levels earlier in October on the move higher in yields. This brings me to bank earnings that start on Tuesday morning. The $KBWB (Bank ETF) is down 12.1% since its closing peak on August 14th. This is a very different message compared to the S&P up slightly (+0.3%) over that time. I am a big believer that credit is the lifeblood of the economy. Any further sell-off despite trading at oversold levels last week would not be a great sign. For those that believe strong upcoming AI related earnings results will continue to drive the market higher, the 4% decline in Micron Technology last week is a strong counterpoint. As for the AI trade, $GOOGL is finally getting themselves back into the conversation. This belief is why I wrote optimistically on the stock in late September. After roughly 10 months without releasing a new frontier model, two weeks ago they announced Argon which put them back into the frontier LLM conversation. Then last week Google announced the Gemini agent, a "single, universal agent for work." Google’s stock gained 2.4% this past week despite this being more of an enterprise product. Given Google already has 14 products with over 1B users each, a personal assistant product that competes with Muse from $Meta is what I am really waiting for. I continue to like Google in anticipation of such an event. I also continue to like NVidia in semiconductors, especially when paired with shorts in the space. The stock declined 2.0% last week but this was far better than the 4.3% decline in the semiconductor index. Nvidia believes that given access to power is becoming a bigger issue, their higher token production per watt will enable them to gain share going forward. The market, however, is anticipating further share loss to ASICs which is partly why the stock has a 15x CY27 PE. It would not take much of a sentiment shift to see the multiple expand much like with Meta in September. I continue to see Nvidia's stock outperforming the overall semiconductor sector between now and their earnings release on November 19th. For the overall market, an optimist could say that the bond market was not priced correctly and now has closed that gap given the solid 10 year treasury auction to end the week. There is a rule of thumb that over the medium term, when there is no financial manipulation (for example QE), that 10 year bond yields (currently 5.25%) should equal nominal GDP. With real Q2 GDP at 2.2% plus recent core PCE at 3.0%, 10 year bond yields after their recent rise could finally be at appropriate levels. While trailing PE multiples are high, so is S&P earnings growth at roughly 35% y/y for Q3. I broached the possibility last week that this could be the new normal for bond yields vs the stock market PE and US dollar. While I am not there yet, I have to respect the new all-time record high set in the S&P last week in the face of rising bond yields and a rising dollar with a backdrop of high oil prices. Is this the new normal or the calm before the equity storm? I look forward to the market reaction to bank earnings this upcoming week to add more facts to the equation. As John Maynard Keynes once said, “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” In summary, I prefer to remain circumspect at the portfolio level given what I view as mixed messages on a shorter-term basis. That means being more selective in stock selection (such as AI infrastructure), having smaller position sizes and a greater than normal amount of cash. Playing for at least some short-term reversion to the mean in stocks that were hurt by rising bond yields is also interesting.
View original →Last wk, oil fell 1% w/ lower than expected JOLTS, PCE & NFP. But bonds sold off even more driving 10/30yr ylds to 2002 levels. Equity mkts though were flattish driven by AI infrastructure w/ SOX +3.7%. Breadth worsened to just 25% of the S&P above the 50dma. The market action on Friday bothered me. Non-farm payrolls came in at 29K vs 90K expected. Bonds initially rallied from oversold levels at the open but ended the day down across the curve from the 3-month to 30 year driving yields higher. The dollar did close lower by $0.16 on Friday but it was still up $0.96 during the week. The USD has surged by over $3 in less than a month and broke above $102 on Thursday. As I wrote about in my post last Sunday, I am concerned that the Fed is raising, while inflation has remained higher than target with oil prices remaining high. There have been five episodes of ~20%-50% S&P sell-offs since the early 1970s on this combination. I can now add to that list of concerns a sovereign debt crisis like in 2010 or an LTCM event like in 1998 driven by the combination of a strengthening US dollar and global bond market sell-off. On the positive side, the AI infrastructure trade added more demand drivers last week. OpenAI introduced their Muse by $META competitor called Dots. $GOOGL previewed their new LLM model Argon that ranks higher than Anthropic and OpenAI on most benchmarks. At the company level, $NVDA, sounded great during their marketing in NYC. The stock trades at a 15x CY27 PE for guided 70% revenue growth which I think could be revised higher when they report results in mid-November. To me, Nvidia is the best risk adjusted AI trade in the market now that Meta gained 27% in September. In this vein, while the SOX Index is down 10% from 6/22 which was the peak of the momentum trade, Nvidia is up 12%. On the negative side, I have been watching the Ramp Index of total token spend by businesses for some time to make sure that token growth is outpacing the ASP decline. But after increasing by 9.1x year-to-date through August 2nd, it has been roughly flat to down since then. There has been a 11% combined decline in Anthropic plus OpenAI spend from 8/2-9/27. Meanwhile on a token basis, there was a 11x year-to-date increase through August 2nd with a further 28% increase from Anthropic plus OpenAI since then. Is this the impact of open-weight model pricing? Finally, the current bi-partisan (amazing they agree on anything) pushback on datacenters could get worse after November 3rd mid-terms if there is a blue wave which is what the current polling data leans towards. On July 29th, I turned bullish again: “In summary, my view is that we could have seen at least a short-term bottom today with a strong rally ahead of us in the sectors most caught in the latest speedbump.” On August 23rd, I started to get more cautious again on the overall market with my post, James Carville: “as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.” But since then, despite a 54 bps surge in 10yr bond yields, the Fed resuming hiking after 3 years, a 3.2% increase in the USD, the equal-weighted S&P down 5.4% and breadth returning to levels last seen in March, the overall S&P has gained 0.6%. In summary, I feel like either the bond market (and now the currency markets) are not priced correctly or the stock market isn’t. As a result, I believe in extra prudence. That means being more selective (such as AI infrastructure), having smaller position sizes and a greater than normal amount of cash. Maybe this is the new normal for bond yields vs the stock market PE, but that is not my base case. Best of luck in the week ahead.
View original →I think this is a combo of the $AMZN deal with $QCOM (+4% intra-day) today which speaks to the issue of $NVDA large customers trying to build custom ASICs. In addition, Nvidia on many days is used as a source of funds when semis are having a strong day and as a result outperforms many days when the Index is down. As an example of this, the correlation of Nvidia to semis was around 0.85 in mid-2025 and has since declined to around 0.61. There is also probably some reversion to the mean trading today given last week Nvidia was up 5.9% with the Semi Index up 2.3% and their biggest thorn in their side on custom ASICs, $AVGO, was down 3.0% last week. Having said all that, it is annoying to not see the stock perform better today.
View original →NVDA's Hugging Face acquisition and Meta's Muse Spark 1.3 release make both more attractive into year-end, as open models gain share and token usage rose 3.6x while costs fell 50%
Last wk despite WTI +10% & ylds +2-7 bps across the curve, S&P/Nas/R2K +0.1%/+0.4%/+0.1%. $NVDA acquisition of Hugging Face & $Meta release of Muse Spark 1.3 last wk make both names more attractive into year-end. My view is that LLMs increasingly bifurcate into 90%+ usage of open-source/ open-weight models in the future as companies optimize the right models for the right task. Since the focus on controlling AI expenditures, the Silicon Data token cost has fallen over 50% since late May but the weekly usage of tokens in models across OpenRouter has increased by 3.6x over this same time. In addition, enterprises are increasingly focused on making sure their own proprietary data does not leak out when they use third party closed frontier LLMs. Hugging Face is the premier central collaborative platform, repository, and toolkit for open-source and open-weight AI with over 18 million developers. Nvidia has three customers that accounted for 44% of their revenues over the past six months and their largest customers are increasingly designing their own ASICs and in some cases selling them externally. A more diversified customer base that owns their own AI compute stack instead of renting from the big cloud service providers would help Nvidia with both of these issues. With this acquisition, Nvidia is in an even better position to sell enterprises a complete alternative AI stack (from the model to chips) where the customer will own their own data. Valuation is also compelling. Nvidia trades at a 15x CY27 PE versus their own guidance for 70% revenue growth and the Big 3 public cloud service providers at 21-23x for 15-26% total revenue growth. The S&P trades at 19x for 9% revenue growth for comparison. Nvidia is also up “just”24% versus the Semiconductor Index up 66% following underperformance last year at up 39% versus 42%. As for Meta, the stock is down 7% year-to-date after being up just 13% last year driven largely by concerns that 1) they can only monetize their near doubling in AI capex spend through efficiencies in their own business and 2) they were falling behind in the AI model race. The launch of the Muse Spark 1.3 API last week, catapulted Meta back to near frontier status (Top four in the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index out of 10 models) but with aggressive token pricing (Bottom four in Cost per Task.) Open-weight versions of the Muse Spark lineup are coming soon. This will give the company another way to monetize their aggressive capex plans. This follows Meta's settlement in late August with state AGs on their youth addiction trial which was another overhang on the stock. Trading at 16x CY27 PE for 20% revenue growth is compelling with the settlement and Spark 1.3 launch as catalysts. From a broader market perspective, I recommend caution between now and the US mid-terms for reasons I have fleshed out in prior posts including: 1) Don’t Fight the Fed given I believe a 9/16 hike is likely 2) September -0.5% on avg & up only 48% of the time 3) S&P drawdowns of 10% in lead-up to mid-terms 4) Bipartisan pushback against datacenter expansion 5) Iran dragging out hostilities through US mid-terms
View original →In general, many AI investors have been bullish on semiconductors and bearish on software on the belief that AI will displace many point solution software companies. This is why the SOX index is up 62% YTD and IGV is still only up 4% YTD versus the S&P +13%. Situational Awareness was the poster child for this type of positioning. But since the unwinding of the Momentum trade which started on 6/22 (I wrote about these concerns on 6/20), IGV has rallied 25% while the SOX Index has declined 22% through 8/28. For perspective, the Morgan Stanley Momentum index (momentum long performance minus momentum short performance) from 6/22-8/28 is down 36% while their more concentrated TMT index is down 54%. But a bullish twist on AI for the software sector introduced recently is that AI agents will access software tools ~10-100x more often than humans. On 8/6, $TEAM, which was in the bucket of software names widely considered at risk of being replaced by AI, rallied 35% the next day in reaction to solid earnings & outlook. Then on 8/13, $WDAY rallied 18% on the news that private equity firm Silverlake might be pursuing an acquisition which I wrote probably put a floor underneath software. Workday was also supposed to be in the AI crosshairs and private equity has higher bars to clear given their use of leverage and holding period than a typical investor. Then on 8/26, $CRM reported solid results, guidance and a deal with Anthropic (in which they also first invested in May of 2023.) The stock was up 23% in reaction the next day. This seemed to be a strong counterpoint to the SaaS-pocalypse worries. This strategic alliance allows users to execute actions natively inside Claude without needing to open traditional software screens. Salesforce also seems to be changing how they charge customers with fees more related to customer use and benefits to their business. Then on 8/27, Workday reported results which were good enough but arguably acquisition prospects drove more of the stock reaction of +6% the next day from the slightly down opening price. Historically, system of record, security and gaming software have been the only three areas I have liked within software. I now wonder whether the fundamental implications of Atlassian, Workday and Salesforce are supportive of the technical reactions in the software stocks as a group as agentic AI continues to ramp. So how do I square this with my concerns that the rapidly escalating amounts spent on AI by corporations has to come from somewhere? Annualized revenue run-rates for Anthropic and OpenAI have ramped from $29B to start the year to $105B just 7 months later. Software spending globally excluding AI was roughly $1 trillion in 2025. But IT services at $1.7 trillion is a bigger category which I believe still has risk. And finally, knowledge worker compensation is an even bigger category where disruption would be even less noticeable at an estimated $35-50 trillion in 2025 or roughly 30% of the global workforce. Looking forward, the deal on Friday for Venezuelan oil fields that hold the largest crude reserves in the world at 17-18% should get us off to a positive start to the week with declining oil prices. But a bit further out: 1) “Don’t Fight the Fed” given I believe a hike is likely on 9/16 because the 10/28 mtg is right before mid-terms, 2) September has the poorest seasonality of all months, 3) there is even worse seasonality than normal during mid-term election years (see prior posts for more detail) and 4) recent bipartisan pushback against datacenter expansion (one of the few things both sides seem to agree on though I believe this is wrong and hope it will change with more education) puts pressure on the AI infrastructure names. As Warren Buffett says, the market has to keep pitching but you do not need to swing.
Last wk, SPX/Nas/R2K +0.5%/+0.8%/-1.5% w/ oil -4%. But a hawkish Warsh on Friday led to a bear flattening of the yield curve. Despite $NVDA guide of 70% CY27 rev growth vs consensus of 47%, SOX Index -2.3% while software $IGV +5.9% on solid earnings. In general, many AI investors have been bullish on semiconductors and bearish on software on the belief that AI will displace many point solution software companies. This is why the SOX index is up 62% YTD and IGV is still only up 4% YTD versus the S&P +13%. Situational Awareness was the poster child for this type of positioning. But since the unwinding of the Momentum trade which started on 6/22 (I wrote about these concerns on 6/20), IGV has rallied 25% while the SOX Index has declined 22% through 8/28. For perspective, the Morgan Stanley Momentum index (momentum long performance minus momentum short performance) from 6/22-8/28 is down 36% while their more concentrated TMT index is down 54%. But a bullish twist on AI for the software sector introduced recently is that AI agents will access software tools ~10-100x more often than humans. On 8/6, $TEAM, which was in the bucket of software names widely considered at risk of being replaced by AI, rallied 35% the next day in reaction to solid earnings & outlook. Then on 8/13, $WDAY rallied 18% on the news that private equity firm Silverlake might be pursuing an acquisition which I wrote probably put a floor underneath software. Workday was also supposed to be in the AI crosshairs and private equity has higher bars to clear given their use of leverage and holding period than a typical investor. Then on 8/26, $CRM reported solid results, guidance and a deal with Anthropic (in which they also first invested in May of 2023.) The stock was up 23% in reaction the next day. This seemed to be a strong counterpoint to the SaaS-pocalypse worries. This strategic alliance allows users to execute actions natively inside Claude without needing to open traditional software screens. Salesforce also seems to be changing how they charge customers with fees more related to customer use and benefits to their business. Then on 8/27, Workday reported results which were good enough but arguably acquisition prospects drove more of the stock reaction of +6% the next day from the slightly down opening price. Historically, system of record, security and gaming software have been the only three areas I have liked within software. I now wonder whether the fundamental implications of Atlassian, Workday and Salesforce are supportive of the technical reactions in the software stocks as a group as agentic AI continues to ramp. So how do I square this with my concerns that the rapidly escalating amounts spent on AI by corporations has to come from somewhere? Annualized revenue run-rates for Anthropic and OpenAI have ramped from $29B to start the year to $105B just 7 months later. Software spending globally excluding AI was roughly $1 trillion in 2025. But IT services at $1.7 trillion is a bigger category which I believe still has risk. And finally, knowledge worker compensation is an even bigger category where disruption would be even less noticeable at an estimated $35-50 trillion in 2025 or roughly 30% of the global workforce. Looking forward, the deal on Friday for Venezuelan oil fields that hold the largest crude reserves in the world at 17-18% should get us off to a positive start to the week with declining oil prices. But a bit further out: 1) “Don’t Fight the Fed” given I believe a hike is likely on 9/16 because the 10/28 mtg is right before mid-terms, 2) September has the poorest seasonality of all months, 3) there is even worse seasonality than normal during mid-term election years (see prior posts for more detail) and 4) recent bipartisan pushback against datacenter expansion (one of the few things both sides seem to agree on though I believe this is wrong and hope it will change with more education) puts pressure on the AI infrastructure names. As Warren Buffett says, the market has to keep pitching but you do not need to swing.
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