NKTRNektar TherapeuticsBullishNektar TherapeuticsAMGNAmgenNeutralAmgen

2w ago on

Earnings Observation #1 Today: This one relates to $NKTR. Galderma continues to absolutely crush it with Nemluvio. With $735M through Q3, 2026 will officially end up being its first blockbuster year. The AtD launch started at the beginning of 2025........ They are getting 9% NBRx share in atopic dermatitis...This is all with their 13% EASI75 delta in P3 (versus Dupi at 33%), and monthly maintenance dosing. Compare this to $NKTR's Rezpeg with, in phase 2, 27% EASI75 delta, and Once every *3* months maintenance dosing. Yes, new mechanisms of action will eventually come to atopic dermatitis *AFTER* Rezpeg years from now. But none are close in timeline to $NKTR's rezpeg (and I do NOT consider STAT6 a different axis from IL4/13). Nemluvio efficacy stinks, and it is used because it is a different mechanism of action...if Rezpeg also has a different MoA, better efficacy, and better dosing...what's the issue here? I don't get why the market thinks Rezpeg won't get market share in topic dermatitis with a placebo adjusted effect size 2x as big and a dosing interval 3x as long as Nemluvio, that is out here absolutely crushing it not even 2 years into the AtD launch. Obviously things can change in P3 - that's the risk. But based on the data so far, Rezpeg is what $SNY and $AMGN wanted OX40 to be...like, exactly what they hoped for in terms of efficacy AND dosing...And once upon a time (before they found out OX40i causes cancer), they were both projecting multi-billion $ sales for EACH of these OX40 drugs. Rezpeg now perfectly fills that hole. Then, Nemluvio is also doing great in its other indication, prurigo nodularis...where it competes against....DUPIXENT! $NKTR's secondary indication of alopecia areata is a much larger patient population that is SEVERELY underpenetrated because the only thing approved for it is unsafe JAKs. No dupixent to compete with there! Just derms' least favorite...JAKs. People who think that Rezpeg doesn't look effective enough to get real use in AA just have no idea what dermatology practice is like. Zero. This exact situation is what we see in atopic dermatitis: JAK inhibitors are WAY more effective than IL4/13 inhibitors in atopic derm, but IL4/13 inhibitors are used 10x more!!! It is not even REMOTELY close. The same dynamic will (WILL) exist in AA once we get a safe biologic to treat it. The first safe biologic for AA will not only crush the JAK inhibitors, but it will *expand* the market on its own. And it sure looks like that first safe biologic for AA is going to be.....Rezpeg. Why people are writing off AA altogether is beyond me. We have a perfect market analog already in atopic dermatitis, where the SAFE, even if LESS EFFECTIVE drug absolutely runs laps around the more effective, but dangerous JAK inhibitors. Catalyst desert, phase 3 risk, etc etc. All fine to discuss those headwinds. But the idea that Rezpeg wouldn't/won't be used in AtD and AA absolutely does not track *whatsoever* with our real world analogs. Make a deal, Howie.

NeutralNKTRNektar TherapeuticsNektar TherapeuticsABVXAbivaxAbivax

4w ago on

448 days since my last pitch ($ABVX), it’s now finally time for my next one: $ZURA (Zura Bio). Like with the $NKTR and $ABVX pitches before this, I will post a general outline of my research on $ZURA as a thread here. However, for those looking to really get into the weeds, there is a Google Doc link to the full length pitch attached below. Let’s dig in. https://t.co/b1KfL51T6F

NKTRNektar TherapeuticsBullishNektar Therapeutics

10/1/2026 on

$NKTR AA off-treatment durability data. 75% maintained their SALT<20 response at 4 months of no treatment, and 63% after 6 months. They even saw some continued deepening of effect *without* new treatment - they gained another SALT<10 responder. This off-treatment durability is a unique and highly desirable feature in alopecia areata. As discussed elsewhere: 1). The current SoC (JAKi) loses efficacy rapidly when stopped/interrupted. In the real world, dose interruptions happen often for any number of reasons. 2). Interruptions of treatment when using drugs that lose efficacy rapidly when stopped is a big problem for this disease specifically. Growing hair takes time. Literally years for people with longer hair styles. AA makes hair fall out at the follicle. If you have even a short term lapse in treatment, it has long term consequences in this disease - unlike most I&I conditions where you simply resume the drug and get your response back, that process can take *years* in AA. So now, $NKTR can not only say they have the first to market safe biologic for AA, beating out JAKi with their 5 point black box warning (for this relatively cosmetic condition). Now they can also say “we have major off treatment durability, so in the real world when patients miss a dose, their hair isn’t just going to fall out”. This indication seems to have been written to $0 net present value for $NKTR recently. I really do not understand why. There’s a product here.

NKTRNektar TherapeuticsBullishNektar TherapeuticsLLYEli LillyNeutralEli Lilly

9/24/2026 on

$NKTR awarded $90M in damages in its lawsuit vs $LLY. Nothing earth shattering. $NKTR walks away +$90M in cash…though their market cap is down nearly $600M since the trial started a little over a week ago 🤷🏻‍♂️. A period during which we also learned through trial proceedings that $NKTR is actively engaged in BD discussions for rezpeg… My hope is that this trial coming to a (mildly positive) conclusion removes a massive overhang for $NKTR. Stock was >$100 in the recent past, but it’s been a widely held notion that no “deals” could happen while the trial was pending. I have agreed with that. A lucrative deal with another pharma would’ve completely undermined their position that $LLY had damaged them. That limitation is now removed. We also should have AA off-treatment data any day now. As previously discussed, AA relapses *rapidly* when JAK inhibitor drugs are stopped, and this has massive implications for AA patients, as a full head of hair lost due to an interruption in treatment can take years to grow back. This is NOT like other conditions where you simply go back on the drug and regain the effect right away. Durability of effect, including durability with treatment interruptions that are common in the real world, is paramount. ~$1B EV. A drug for AtD and AA with a unique mechanism. Gotta think there’s strategic interest at these levels 🤷🏻‍♂️