MRNAModernaBearishModerna
5d ago on
Why not. Calling $MRNA top in 11/6/26 $267.50 https://t.co/rKoDBBBgoO
View original →
I invest in biotechs. I often tweet about companies I have positions in. Nothing I say should be considered investment advice.
Cite asCryptoQuant has tracked the directional calls on MRNA by @A_May_MD on X since Jan 2026: not yet scored on MRNA (as of Nov 11, 2026).
Relative view by default: fewer than 30 MRNA calls or days on record.
Sentiment timeline shows relative sentiment within this analyst's history. A perma-bull showing 8 bullish : 2 bearish in a bear market sets that as their baseline. If you notice any errors, claim @A_May_MD to submit corrections.
Hover the chart to read the thesis of that period · click a day to pin it
Why not. Calling $MRNA top in 11/6/26 $267.50 https://t.co/rKoDBBBgoO
View original →#ESMO Oncologists, if you don’t demand that neoantigen vaccines be studied against NEOadjuvant therapy, you’re doing the world and your patients a major disservice. It’s not $MRK or $MRNA’s fault that the standard of care evolved after their study was launched, but we cannot reward “innovation” with tens of billions of dollars when that “innovation” might be replaced by simply giving the first 2-3 doses of medicine sooner, FOR ABSOLUTELY FREE. This is ridiculous.
View original →Last 3 months: “Biotech is down every day because $MRNA and yields are up every day.” Today: “$MRNA and yields are plummeting!” *Biotech immediately joins them in jumping off the cliff* Honestly folks, why do we even do this? https://t.co/UckR3aRGeo
View original →$MRNA with the single most hilarious possible outcome in this study. EFS HR 0.58. Down the the hundredth, EXACTLY what *NEO*-adjuvant treatment with pembro yielded against adjuvant pembro (the nerfed comparator $MRNA studied against) in SWOG S1801. What does this mean in English? $MRNA’s drug is showing the exact same benefit versus adjuvant pembrolizumab as NEOadjuvant pembrolizumab did. Even more simply? If you just give patients a few doses of the pembrolizumab BEFORE you cut their cancer out, you do what $MRNA does for you, except with just the free tumor that’s already inside your body. No need to pay for this $400K drug. And this makes rational sense, right? The whole point of $MRNA’s vaccine is to produce stuff that looks like the tumor. You know what looks A LOT like the tumor does? THE FREAKING TUMOR!!!!!! Absolutely poetic that $MRNA produced the EXACT HR benefit as neoadjuvant pembro did. Truly, the most hilarious possible outcome. Now can we move on from this bullshit? $MRK and $MRNA should feel free to study their vaccine against the REAL standard of care now - NEOadjuvant immunotherapy. From my perspective, this has been total fugaze, and an amateurish pump and dump worthy of much lesser enterprises.
View original →Another glimpse into the historic biotech sector short squeeze that has transpired over the last two months: $IOVA You may have seen it was up ~40% yesterday, after having rallied relentlessly in the weeks preceding as well. What was the big run yesterday topping off almost 2 months of nonstop squeeze? $IOVA *finally* press released their revenue guidance update, which they said they'd do late this quarter during their Q2 earnings call in August. See, in Q2 they'd had better-than-expected revenue numbers come in. $99.3M to be exact. Not a massive beat of expectations, but a beat for sure. Of course, they still had a net loss of $50M that quarter, but a beat's a beat. Most companies would have just updated their guidance during this quarterly update. $IOVA especially should have been able to do this, since they should know their revenue numbers further in advance than most drug companies do, given that their cell therapies must, uniquely, be ordered FAR in advance of their administration/prescription - unlike nearly every other type of drug. But, likely hoping to make another separate catalyst out of the update, they waited. Fortunately for them, the mother of all biotech shitco squeezes started shortly thereafter when $MRNA kicked the madness off with their "surprising" melanoma update. Ignoring the fact that Moderna's supposed success would be an objective, material negative for direct melanoma competitor $IOVA, Iovance rallied along with everything else that the smart money has been shorting in biotech. So, $IOVA got the earnings beat squeeze, the market-wide biotech shitco squeeze, and then yesterday *another* squeeze on finally giving the guidance update that they should have just given us with the conference call. ...But...was the updated guidance yesterday actually impressive/bullish over what should have been expected? Q2 revenue was already ~$100M. Their newly updated guidance suggests ~$122M/Q (per midpoint) in revenue over Q3 and Q4...This new guide represents *decreased* QoQ growth on *BOTH* a percentage and absolute basis! Between Q1 and Q2, revenue grew from $71M to $99M. A $28M, ~40% QoQ increase. Now, $99.3M to $122M jump would be a ~$23M and ~23% QoQ increase... So the QoQ growth through the rest of the year moves from ~40% (the datapoint that started the squeeze from $4/share) to ~23%...and that's...bullish news? Was this update actually bullish over expectations, or were shorts just getting another round of squeeze from momo traders who couldn't even define for you what exactly melanoma is? Almost certainly the latter. The math simply does not work out for this relatively small (+15%) bump in guidance to have come as a positive surprise to the market. If anything, the update seems negative to me, as a true breakout growth story would NOT involve decreasing QoQ growth like yesterday's new guidance does! Like, what did people expect? Q2 revenue was ~$100M already and the FY midpoint is now $415 🤣...That's pretty damn close to 100x4 isn't it? 😅 I previously thought there was a chance that $IOVA management was sitting on some super bullish numbers and that was the reason for this bizarre delayed updating of guidance...but, no...this new guidance is actually meaningfully *below* the growth we saw from Q1 to Q2! Not just in percent growth, but in absolute dollars! Now, it ended up being a pretty genius move by management to play it this way, because as we have seen: The biotech market has been seeing absolutely record breaking squeezing on popular shorts like in the ~2 months since $IOVA had Q2 earnings. Some of these moves have been quite literally without precedent. Great timing for $IOVA to play this game! The stock has pumped relentlessly while waiting for this highly anticipated update yesterday just because the market has been squeezing. Then, they squeeze another 40% on top of that! All with an update that actually would not have been considered *that* bullish if it had been provided back in August (when every other "normal" company would've updated their guidance with earnings). Look at that chart! From the August Q2 earnings announcement to today, we have a 275% rally! A...275% rally...all on....a....15% increase in their guidance midpoint?! 🤣🤣🤣 Even the bulls have to admit, this one has been all momo, leaving fundamentals completely behind.
View original →
