Called $BTC bullish on Sep 10, 2024: $BTC rose 77% in 4 months.
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Called Bitcoin’s Oct ’22 Bottom, Jul ’23 $125k Top & Oct ’25 Bear - Before They Happened | Institutional Crypto & Cross-Asset Research | Millennium | JPMorgan |
accuracy score 68.6 on BTC over 865 BTC calls · 1,477 days of data · rank 11 of 141 BTC analysts (top 7.8% of the pool) · top 0.73% of an estimated 1,500 BTC analysts worldwide · v20r-multi-sparsepen-strong-ss12m-20261012, computed Nov 11, 2026 · Methodology →
Cite asCryptoQuant has tracked 865 directional calls on BTC by @10xresearch on X since Oct 2022: ranked #11 of 141 analysts scored on BTC by accuracy — in the Top 1% of an estimated 1,500 BTC analysts worldwide (as of Nov 11, 2026).
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Relative view by default: Markus Thielen’s calls are mostly nuanced, so each day is read against their usual tone.
Sentiment timeline shows relative sentiment within this analyst's history. A perma-bull showing 8 bullish : 2 bearish in a bear market sets that as their baseline. If you notice any errors, claim @10xresearch to submit corrections.
Called $BTC bullish on Sep 10, 2024: $BTC rose 77% in 4 months.
View call →Hover the chart to read the thesis of that period · click a day to pin it
1M: −13.6% 2M: −21.6% 4M: −13.3% 6M: +3.5% 1Y: +53.9% It hurts first. Then it beats the S&P 500 (+14.3%), Nasdaq (+23.1%) and gold (+18.5%) over 12 months. While drawdowns of this velocity test conviction, an 80-year historical lens indicates that post-election volatility spikes typically mark cyclical exhaustion rather than structural regime breaks. With Democrats taking Capitol Hill, higher baseline deficit spending and entitlement expansions are set to accelerate currency debasement trends. Below, we break down the historical precedent across past post-midterm cycles and explain why patient capital should view this washout as an attractive entry point. How would we capitalize on the Post-Midterm Clearing Event? Full analysis → https://t.co/MSF0fpfpSw
Bitcoin after a US midterm election, average return: 1M: −13.6% 2M: −21.6% 4M: −13.3% 6M: +3.5% 1Y: +53.9% It hurts first. Then it beats the S&P 500 (+14.3%), Nasdaq (+23.1%) and gold (+18.5%) over 12 months. While drawdowns of this velocity test conviction, an 80-year historical lens indicates that post-election volatility spikes typically mark cyclical exhaustion rather than structural regime breaks. With Democrats taking Capitol Hill, higher baseline deficit spending and entitlement expansions are set to accelerate currency debasement trends. Below, we break down the historical precedent across past post-midterm cycles and explain why patient capital should view this washout as an attractive entry point. How would we capitalize on the Post-Midterm Clearing Event? Full analysis → https://t.co/MSF0fpfpSw
View original →Bitcoin buy-and-hold returned 63% a year over the past decade. An investor who bought five years ago has made just 2.3% a year. The difference isn’t luck. Bitcoin is now a $1.5 trillion asset, and moving it requires institutional and sovereign capital. Those investors respond to growth, inflation, the Fed and the dollar. For most of the past year, that backdrop has been the worst possible mix for Bitcoin. In today’s report, we cover: • What has worked over the last five years, and what hasn’t • The macro regime Bitcoin needs for big rallies, and how far we are from it • Why we think the worst of the repricing is behind us • How we’re positioning now We’ve also launched a Latest Views section on our Market Updates page, with our current call on each asset and the report behind it. Bitcoin: Why Buy-and-Hold Stalled and What Comes Next -> https://t.co/6SyuUvy6HI
View original →What Would Ethereum Be Worth Without Bitmine?
Weak fees, uncompetitive staking yields and single-buyer dependence undermine ETH as a core holding
View original →Bitcoin: Why Buy-and-Hold Stalled and What Comes Next Many newer Bitcoin investors are committed to buy-and-hold. After an annual return of just 2.3% over the past five years, that conviction is being tested. Buy and hold has done well over 10 years, but the market has changed, and the last five years have been much harder. In this report, we explain why, which data points investors should watch, and how to act on them. Bitcoin doesn’t move in a vacuum, and neither do the flows behind it. A clear framework and a consistent process lead to better decisions. This report sets out what drives Bitcoin and how our process tells us when to be bearish, neutral, or bullish. We are also adding a new section to our Market Updates landing page (https://t.co/4PKimhmo8O). It shows our current views and links to the key reports behind them, so subscribers can quickly find what matters. We will update those reports whenever our view changes materially, across all 10x Research publications. Anyways, the full report on why buy-and-hold stalled, which indicators investors should be monitoring, which strategy has actually generated double digit returns even during the last five years is all in the report: https://t.co/6SyuUvyExg
View original →Bitcoin: Why Buy-and-Hold Stalled and What Comes Next
Many newer Bitcoin investors are committed to buy-and-hold. After an annual return of just 2.3% over the past five years, that conviction is being tested. Buy and hold has done well over 10 years, but the market has changed, and the last five years have been much harder. In this report, we explain why, which data points investors should watch, and how to act on them. Bitcoin doesn’t move in a vacuum, and neither do the flows behind it. A clear framework and a consistent process lead to better decisions. This report sets out what drives Bitcoin and how our process tells us when to be bearish, neutral, or bullish . BTC (LHS) vs. Weekly RSI (RHS) - A strong framework goes beyond technicals Read more
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