NeutralMARABTCBitcoinBitcoin

3w ago on

Over the past 12 months, Oracle and CoreWeave shares have each fallen about 55%. Over the same period, Oracle’s 2032 bonds lost 14 points and CoreWeave’s 2031 bonds lost 21. In other words, the bonds lost points while the stocks lost half their value. The latest selloff in CoreWeave’s bonds was fast and severe, but this is not a CoreWeave default story. It is about funding for AI infrastructure more broadly, and Oracle, an investment-grade company, has lost as much equity value as CoreWeave Since September 22, Bitcoin is down 5%. The Bitcoin miners we track are down 28% to 53%. Even MARA, the stock still most closely tied to Bitcoin, has fallen 45%. The miners that moved into AI hosting have quietly changed what drives their shares. Their correlation with Bitcoin has dropped to 0.29 since July. The selloff was not about Bitcoin or Treasury yields. In this report, we explain when and why the link to Bitcoin broke, what miners trade on now, why funding mattered more than tenant quality, and the credit level that will tell investors when it is safe to buy again. Because the drivers of miner share prices have changed, we also outline when investors can start buying again, which events and credit levels would trigger it, and what to monitor in the meantime. Full report, link in the bio or in the comments section.

From Hashrate to High Yield: Bitcoin Miners Now Trade on CoreWeave’s Credit Over the past 12 months, Oracle and CoreWeave shares have each fallen about 55%. Over the same period, Oracle’s 2032 bonds lost 14 points and CoreWeave’s 2031 bonds lost 21. In other words, the bonds lost points while the stocks lost half their value. The latest selloff in CoreWeave’s bonds was fast and severe, but this is not a CoreWeave default story. It is about funding for AI infrastructure more broadly, and Oracle, an investment-grade company, has lost as much equity value as CoreWeave Since September 22, Bitcoin is down 5%. The Bitcoin miners we track are down 28% to 53%. Even MARA, the stock still most closely tied to Bitcoin, has fallen 45%. The miners that moved into AI hosting have quietly changed what drives their shares. Their correlation with Bitcoin has dropped to 0.29 since July. The selloff was not about Bitcoin or Treasury yields. In this report, we explain when and why the link to Bitcoin broke, what miners trade on now, why funding mattered more than tenant quality, and the credit level that will tell investors when it is safe to buy again. Because the drivers of miner share prices have changed, we also outline when investors can start buying again, which events and credit levels would trigger it, and what to monitor in the meantime. Full report, link in the bio or in the comments section.

NeutralMARABTCBitcoinBitcoinORCLOracleOracle

3w ago on

From Hashrate to High Yield: Bitcoin Miners Now Trade on CoreWeave’s Credit

Over the past 12 months, Oracle and CoreWeave shares have each fallen about 55%. Over the same period, Oracle’s 2032 bonds lost 14 points and CoreWeave’s 2031 bonds lost 21. In other words, the bonds lost points while the stocks lost half their value. The latest selloff in CoreWeave’s bonds was fast and severe, but this is not a CoreWeave default story. It is about funding for AI infrastructure more broadly, and Oracle, an investment-grade company, has lost as much equity value as CoreWeave Since September 22, Bitcoin is down 5%. The Bitcoin miners we track are down 28% to 53%. Even MARA, the stock still most closely tied to Bitcoin, has fallen 45%. The miners that moved into AI hosting have quietly changed what drives their shares. Their correlation with Bitcoin has dropped to 0.29 since July. The selloff was not about Bitcoin or Treasury yields. In this report, we explain when and why the link to Bitcoin broke, what miners trade on now, why funding mattered more than tenant quality, and the credit level that will tell investors when it is safe to buy again. Because the drivers of miner share prices have changed, we also outline when investors can start buying again, which events and credit levels would trigger it, and what to monitor in the meantime. Sell-off in CoreWeave and Oracle stocks and bonds is troubling BTC miners Read more