NVDANVIDIANeutralNVIDIATSMTSMCBullishTSMCAAPLAppleNeutralAppleAMDNeutral

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TSMC $TSM JUST REPORTED ANOTHER RECORD MONTH. THE AI BOOM IS ACCELERATING, NOT SLOWING DOWN. TSMC’s October 2026 revenue surged to NT$586.9 billion, up 14.7% MoM and 59.7% YoY, representing another record high and a remarkable acceleration from September’s 54.6% YoY growth. What makes these numbers particularly impressive is that the sequential increase came from an already exceptionally high revenue base, suggesting that demand for advanced semiconductor manufacturing continues expanding at an extraordinary pace rather than merely benefiting from favorable comparisons. I think this reinforces our structural AI investment thesis because TSMC sits at the center of the global advanced semiconductor supply chain, manufacturing leading-edge chips for companies such as NVIDIA, Apple, AMD and other major technology players, while increasingly sophisticated AI accelerators, custom silicon and advanced packaging continue driving demand for scarce manufacturing capacity. October alone represented approximately 34.6% of the midpoint of TSMC’s fourth-quarter revenue guidance, suggesting a strong start to the quarter, although monthly revenue can fluctuate and one month does not guarantee a guidance beat. The most important distinction is that this is not simply a semiconductor industry recovering from a cyclical downturn, but an increasingly powerful structural investment cycle driven by the enormous expansion of AI computing infrastructure. TSMC remains one of the clearest ways to gain exposure to that opportunity because it benefits from the capital spending of multiple competing chip designers rather than depending on any single AI architecture. We remain long TSMC. As long as AI computing demand continues expanding faster than the industry’s ability to supply advanced chips, I believe the company remains exceptionally well positioned to benefit. Long $TSM. Long AI.

NVDANVIDIANeutralNVIDIAAPPAppLovinBullishAppLovinGOOGLAlphabetNeutralAlphabetMETANeutral

6d ago on

APPLOVIN $APP JUST REPORTED 55% REVENUE GROWTH WITH AN 84% EBITDA MARGIN. THE STOCK EXPLODED 20% AFTER HOURS. Let that sink in. A company growing faster than most technology businesses while generating profitability that even the world's largest software companies would envy. Look at Q3'26. Revenue: $2.18B, +55% YoY EPS: $4.30, +76% YoY Net income: $1.44B, +72% YoY Adjusted EBITDA: $1.84B, +59% YoY Adjusted EBITDA margin: 84% Free cash flow: $1.42 BILLION And management just raised the bar. Q4 revenue guidance: $2.37–2.40B vs. $2.25B expected. Adjusted EBITDA guidance: $2.00–2.03B vs. $1.88B expected. 84–85% EBITDA MARGINS. ABSOLUTELY EXTRAORDINARY. Here's what makes AppLovin so interesting. Unlike NVIDIA and the hyperscalers spending enormous amounts building AI infrastructure, AppLovin monetizes AI through advertising optimization. Its Axon AI engine predicts which consumers are most likely to convert, allowing advertisers to achieve better returns and spend more. Better AI models lead to better advertising performance, which attracts more spending, generating more data to improve the models. AI IS NOT JUST ABOUT BUILDING INTELLIGENCE. IT IS ABOUT MONETIZING INTELLIGENCE. And AppLovin is demonstrating exactly that. Now look at the valuation. 2027F P/E: 13.2x 2028F P/E: 10.7x Even after the 20% after-hours rally, those multiples would mechanically increase to approximately 15.8x and 12.8x, assuming unchanged earnings estimates. For a business generating 55% revenue growth and converting approximately 65% of revenue into free cash flow, those valuations deserve serious attention. Of course, sustaining extraordinary margins will be challenging, particularly as Meta, Google and other advertising platforms continue improving their own AI capabilities. But the economics are undeniably impressive. SOME OF THE BIGGEST WINNERS OF THE AI REVOLUTION MAY NOT BE THE COMPANIES SPENDING HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS BUILDING THE INFRASTRUCTURE. THEY MAY BE THE COMPANIES USING THAT INTELLIGENCE TO GENERATE EXTRAORDINARY PROFITS WITHOUT OWNING THE INFRASTRUCTURE THEMSELVES. AppLovin is becoming one of the most fascinating examples of that opportunity. $APP. AI MONETIZATION AT ITS FINEST.

NVDANVIDIANeutralNVIDIAAMDBullishMETANeutralMSFTMicrosoftNeutralMicrosoftORCLOracleNeutralOracle

1w ago on

AMD $AMD JUST REPORTED 97% DATA CENTER GROWTH. AND MANAGEMENT EXPECTS TOTAL REVENUE TO GROW MORE THAN 80% IN 2027. The AI infrastructure boom is getting even bigger, and NVIDIA is no longer the only company capturing the opportunity. Look at AMD's Q3'26 numbers. Revenue: $13.4B, +45% YoY Adjusted EPS: $2.09, +74% YoY Data Center: $8.55B, +97% YoY Operating profit: $3.92B, +75% YoY Gross margin: 56% And the acceleration is only beginning. AMD expects Q4 revenue of approximately $17 BILLION, implying another 27% sequential increase. Even more impressive, management expects consolidated revenue growth to EXCEED 80% IN 2027. Think about that. A semiconductor company already generating over $50 billion in annualized quarterly revenue is guiding for growth that many startups would struggle to achieve. The catalyst? AI GPUs, EPYC server CPUs and AMD's new Helios rack-scale computing platform. Anthropic, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI and Oracle are already testing or deploying workloads on Helios systems. Hyperscalers want more computing capacity, more suppliers and greater negotiating power. THE AI BOOM IS BIG ENOUGH FOR MORE THAN ONE WINNER. But there is one number I don't like. Free cash flow collapsed 64% YoY to just $554 MILLION, despite almost $4 billion in adjusted operating profit. AMD is accumulating enormous inventories ahead of its AI infrastructure ramp, while customer warrants introduce potential shareholder dilution. Revenue growth is impressive. Turning it into sustainable cash flow is the real test. Now look at the valuation. 2026F P/E: 62.9x 2027F P/E: 29.0x 2028F P/E: 20.0x That's an extraordinary compression in valuation multiples, reflecting expectations of explosive earnings growth. If management delivers, 20x FY28 earnings could prove very attractive for a company becoming a major supplier of AI computing infrastructure. Of course, NVIDIA still has a formidable advantage in software, networking and platform integration, while AMD must prove that Helios can scale profitably. But I remain convinced that AI infrastructure demand is structural, and the opportunity is much larger than any single chipmaker. AMD DOESN'T NEED TO DEFEAT NVIDIA TO BECOME AN ENORMOUS WINNER IN AI. It only needs to capture a meaningful share of a computing market that continues expanding at an extraordinary pace. LONG AI.

NVDANVIDIANeutralNVIDIASNDKSandisk CorporationBullishSandisk Corporation

1w ago on

SANDISK $SNDK JUST REPORTED 85% GROSS MARGINS. YES, 85%. FOR A NAND MEMORY COMPANY. If you still think AI is only about GPUs, you’re missing one of the biggest beneficiaries of the infrastructure boom. Look at Sandisk’s Q1 FY27 numbers. Revenue: $11.03B, +378% YoY Adjusted EPS: $49.51, beating estimates Gross margin: 85.1%, up 55 percentage points YoY Operating profit: $8.87B, +25% QoQ Data center revenue: $4.8B, +61% QoQ These numbers are absolutely extraordinary. SANDISK IS GENERATING AN 80% OPERATING MARGIN IN AN INDUSTRY HISTORICALLY KNOWN FOR BRUTAL CYCLICALITY. And here’s what makes this particularly interesting. Data centers now account for approximately 44% of revenue, with AI-related demand driving almost 90% of the company’s sequential revenue growth. Why? Because AI doesn’t just need faster processors. It needs enormous amounts of memory and storage. More AI agents. More inference. Larger context windows. More enterprise data. More storage. And the industry simply cannot expand supply overnight. The result? DEMAND IS OUTPACING SUPPLY, PRICING POWER IS EXPLODING, AND PROFITABILITY IS REACHING UNPRECEDENTED LEVELS. Even more encouraging, Sandisk has secured approximately $93.9 BILLION in minimum contracted revenue at floor pricing, providing greater visibility into future earnings than the NAND industry has historically enjoyed. Meanwhile, the company repurchased $5 BILLION of shares in a single quarter. And management expects another strong quarter. Q2 revenue guidance: $12.2B–$12.6B Adjusted EPS guidance: $55–$57 Gross margin guidance: 84.5%–85.5% Now comes the part I find particularly fascinating. SANDISK TRADES AT JUST 5.9x FY27 AND 5.0x FY28 FORWARD EARNINGS. Yes, memory is cyclical, and 85% gross margins should not be treated as permanent. A low P/E can also be a classic peak-cycle value trap. But the increasingly contracted data-center business suggests this cycle may be structurally different from previous ones. WE OWN SANDISK, AND I AM EXTREMELY HAPPY WITH THE OPERATING PERFORMANCE. We intend to remain long as long as AI-driven demand continues to outpace available NAND supply. The AI boom is creating extraordinary opportunities beyond NVIDIA, and Sandisk is demonstrating just how profitable those opportunities can become. The market keeps talking about the companies producing intelligence. I’m equally interested in the companies supplying the infrastructure that makes intelligence possible. LONG $SNDK. LONG AI.

NVDANVIDIABullishNVIDIAAMZNAmazonBullishAmazonGOOGAlphabetBullishAlphabetGOOGLAlphabetBullishAlphabetTSMTSMCBullishTSMCINTCIntelBearishIntel

1w ago on

INTEL $INTC JUST CRASHED 24% AFTER HOURS DESPITE BEATING EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS BY 30%. BRUTAL. Welcome to a market where even a strong quarter means NOTHING if your forward guidance disappoints. Intel's Q3'26 results were actually impressive. Revenue: $16.5B, +21% YoY Adjusted EPS: $0.52 vs. $0.40 expected Gross margin: 44.1%, +410bps YoY Data Center & AI: $7.3B, +78% YoY But then came the guidance. Q4 revenue: $15.5B midpoint vs. $17.1B expected. Q4 adjusted EPS: $0.25 vs. $0.43 expected. Gross margin expected to collapse from 44.1% to 38%. And the market absolutely HATED it. Here's what makes Intel particularly interesting. THE AI BOOM IS HELPING INTEL'S SERVER BUSINESS WHILE HURTING ITS PC BUSINESS. Exploding AI infrastructure demand is driving server CPU sales, but the same boom is contributing to soaring memory prices, making PCs more expensive and depressing consumer demand. Meanwhile, Intel Foundry remains deeply unprofitable, losing approximately $1.85B in Q3, despite reporting $6.7B in revenue, most of which comes from internal manufacturing activity rather than external customers. And here is my biggest concern. INTEL WAS TRADING AT 42.2x FY27 FORWARD EARNINGS BEFORE THE SELLOFF. That's an extraordinary valuation for a company still navigating a difficult turnaround, substantial manufacturing risks, persistent foundry losses and significant capital requirements. Even after a 24% decline, the stock would mechanically trade around 32x forward earnings, assuming estimates remain unchanged. And remember, Intel recently completed a $23B equity offering, introducing substantial shareholder dilution. I believe Intel's operational recovery is genuine, particularly in server CPUs, but improving fundamentals do not automatically make a stock attractive when the valuation already assumes a successful turnaround. We currently do NOT own Intel, and the 24% collapse alone is not enough to make us buyers. I remain much more comfortable owning established AI infrastructure winners such as $NVDA, $TSM, $GOOG, $AMZN and $SKHY. The AI boom is real. But not every semiconductor company deserves an AI valuation. The market rewards earnings today, but ultimately prices the earnings of tomorrow.