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Yesterday on

TSMC $TSM JUST REPORTED ANOTHER RECORD MONTH. THE AI BOOM IS ACCELERATING, NOT SLOWING DOWN. TSMC’s October 2026 revenue surged to NT$586.9 billion, up 14.7% MoM and 59.7% YoY, representing another record high and a remarkable acceleration from September’s 54.6% YoY growth. What makes these numbers particularly impressive is that the sequential increase came from an already exceptionally high revenue base, suggesting that demand for advanced semiconductor manufacturing continues expanding at an extraordinary pace rather than merely benefiting from favorable comparisons. I think this reinforces our structural AI investment thesis because TSMC sits at the center of the global advanced semiconductor supply chain, manufacturing leading-edge chips for companies such as NVIDIA, Apple, AMD and other major technology players, while increasingly sophisticated AI accelerators, custom silicon and advanced packaging continue driving demand for scarce manufacturing capacity. October alone represented approximately 34.6% of the midpoint of TSMC’s fourth-quarter revenue guidance, suggesting a strong start to the quarter, although monthly revenue can fluctuate and one month does not guarantee a guidance beat. The most important distinction is that this is not simply a semiconductor industry recovering from a cyclical downturn, but an increasingly powerful structural investment cycle driven by the enormous expansion of AI computing infrastructure. TSMC remains one of the clearest ways to gain exposure to that opportunity because it benefits from the capital spending of multiple competing chip designers rather than depending on any single AI architecture. We remain long TSMC. As long as AI computing demand continues expanding faster than the industry’s ability to supply advanced chips, I believe the company remains exceptionally well positioned to benefit. Long $TSM. Long AI.

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1w ago on

AMD $AMD JUST REPORTED 97% DATA CENTER GROWTH. AND MANAGEMENT EXPECTS TOTAL REVENUE TO GROW MORE THAN 80% IN 2027. The AI infrastructure boom is getting even bigger, and NVIDIA is no longer the only company capturing the opportunity. Look at AMD's Q3'26 numbers. Revenue: $13.4B, +45% YoY Adjusted EPS: $2.09, +74% YoY Data Center: $8.55B, +97% YoY Operating profit: $3.92B, +75% YoY Gross margin: 56% And the acceleration is only beginning. AMD expects Q4 revenue of approximately $17 BILLION, implying another 27% sequential increase. Even more impressive, management expects consolidated revenue growth to EXCEED 80% IN 2027. Think about that. A semiconductor company already generating over $50 billion in annualized quarterly revenue is guiding for growth that many startups would struggle to achieve. The catalyst? AI GPUs, EPYC server CPUs and AMD's new Helios rack-scale computing platform. Anthropic, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI and Oracle are already testing or deploying workloads on Helios systems. Hyperscalers want more computing capacity, more suppliers and greater negotiating power. THE AI BOOM IS BIG ENOUGH FOR MORE THAN ONE WINNER. But there is one number I don't like. Free cash flow collapsed 64% YoY to just $554 MILLION, despite almost $4 billion in adjusted operating profit. AMD is accumulating enormous inventories ahead of its AI infrastructure ramp, while customer warrants introduce potential shareholder dilution. Revenue growth is impressive. Turning it into sustainable cash flow is the real test. Now look at the valuation. 2026F P/E: 62.9x 2027F P/E: 29.0x 2028F P/E: 20.0x That's an extraordinary compression in valuation multiples, reflecting expectations of explosive earnings growth. If management delivers, 20x FY28 earnings could prove very attractive for a company becoming a major supplier of AI computing infrastructure. Of course, NVIDIA still has a formidable advantage in software, networking and platform integration, while AMD must prove that Helios can scale profitably. But I remain convinced that AI infrastructure demand is structural, and the opportunity is much larger than any single chipmaker. AMD DOESN'T NEED TO DEFEAT NVIDIA TO BECOME AN ENORMOUS WINNER IN AI. It only needs to capture a meaningful share of a computing market that continues expanding at an extraordinary pace. LONG AI.

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2w ago on

$META is preparing for a $95B AI capital war. And the implications are enormous. Meta is launching $35B in equity-related offerings, with another $60B potentially coming in 2027. Even crazier? NVIDIA, AMD and Broadcom have expressed interest in buying up to $5B of Meta shares. Chip suppliers potentially becoming shareholders in their biggest customers. Welcome to the new AI economy. Meta expects to spend $135B–145B on capex this year, while its quarterly free cash flow has already turned negative. This is no longer an asset-light advertising company. It is becoming an AI infrastructure giant funded by one of the most profitable advertising machines on Earth. The risks? Dilution, depreciation, capital intensity and potentially circular financing. But here is why I remain bullish. Meta already has 3.64 BILLION daily users. It doesn't need to invent distribution or a monetization model from scratch. Its AI agents can monetize through advertising, commerce, messaging and transactions. And at approximately 18x forward P/E, the valuation remains compelling if those investments deliver. The AI race is becoming a capital war. But the winner won't necessarily be whoever raises the most money. It will be whoever generates the most profitable intelligence per dollar invested. And Zuckerberg intends to be one of those winners. LONG $META.

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3w ago on

$TSM just delivered another ridiculous quarter. Revenue: US$46.7B, +41% YoY Net profit: US$23.6B, +69% YoY Gross margin: 66.4% Operating margin: 58.7% ROE: 45.5% This is now TSMC’s 6th consecutive quarter of record profits. But the most interesting number is elsewhere: wafer shipments grew only 9.6% YoY, while revenue grew 50.9% in NT$. That tells you exactly what is happening. AI does not merely need more chips. It needs far more valuable chips. 2nm + 3nm + 5nm + 7nm already account for 79% of wafer revenue, while HPC has exploded to 68% of total revenue. NVIDIA can win. AMD can win. Google TPU can win. Amazon Trainium can win. Custom ASICs can win. TSMC monetizes the war regardless. And despite massive capex, it still generated NT$477B of quarterly free cash flow. At only 17.1x forward P/E and 11.3x EV/EBITDA, I still think the valuation is extremely attractive for arguably the most important semiconductor manufacturer on Earth. The market keeps debating whether AI capex can generate returns. TSMC is already showing us the answer in its income statement. Long $TSM. One of our core portfolio positions.